Nets vs. Bucks Odds, Game 5 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-06-15 15:26:14

Nets vs. Bucks Game 5 Odds

Nets Injury Update: Kyrie Irving is out, but the Brooklyn Nets upgraded James Harden to doubtful for Game 5, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Tuesday morning. The injuries open some interesting opportunities for betting on Nets-Bucks player props, but it’s worth monitoring Harden’s status before tip-off.

The NBA Playoffs always bring the dramatics in one form or another. So far, the most dramatic turning point in the second round is the health—or lack thereof—of the Brooklyn Nets. Thought to be a favorite at the start of the postseason, the Nets have been without James Harden (hamstring) for all but 43 seconds of the semifinals against the Bucks. Now, they will be without Kyrie Irving, who sustained an ankle injury in the second quarter of Game 4.

Oddsmakers have taken note, listing the Nets as home underdogs against Giannis Antetokounmpo. Nets superstar Kevin Durant will be faced with his loftiest challenge yet: trying to propel his top-heavy squad to the conference Finals without his two best players.

Nets vs. Bucks Game 5 Preview

The Bucks should be ecstatic that they only have to defend one of Brooklyn’s “Big Three” superstars Tuesday. In the second half of Game 4, which Milwaukee won 107-96, Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer had top veteran defender P.J. Tucker shadowing Durant. KD still finished with 28 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists, but Budenholzer will take that line from the former MVP and two-time champion and Finals MVP.

Durant will have to drop a 50-burger for the underhanded Nets to beat the Bucks at full strength. Just look at the Nets’ box score Tuesday—KD had 28-13-5 in 42 minutes, Irving had 11-5-2 in his 17 minutes before getting hurt, and no other Net finished with more than eight points, five boards, or three assists. That just won’t do against Milwaukee, a well-coached perennial contender and complete team.

The Bucks may not have stood a chance against Brooklyn if Steve Nash had Harden and Irving from start to finish. But they become the favorites with two of the Big Three out. Tucker can minimalize Durant’s impact on the final score. Former Defensive Player of the Year Giannis and rim-protecting giant Brook Lopez can neutralize Blake Griffin down low, and deny most takes to the hole. Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and company can easily neutralize Joe Harris, Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Mike James.

The problem with building a team around three All-NBA talents—in their late 20s to early 30s, and making a total of $113.2 million per year—is that when one or two of those All-NBA talents gets hurt, all bets are off. Brooklyn cannot rely on complementary pieces to help Durant lead this franchise to the promised land. Harris is a catch-and-shoot guy who can’t defend. Brown is a three-and-D and rebounding guard with little playmaking ability. Green has never been a game-changing player on a contender. Mike James would not be getting playoff minutes for a true contender.

Milwaukee Flipped the Script

The script, as they say, has been flipped. Milwaukee can now dictate the pace and space the floor offensively. On the other side, the Bucks won’t have to worry as much about help defense. Budenholzer’s gang can go back to playing their style of basketball, not desperately trying to stop multiple elite scorers, or even worse, outscore them.

I do like Durant’s chances to dominate the highlight reel Tuesday, and to keep his home squad at least within a few points at the final buzzer. Brooklyn was 6-3 both straight up and against the spread as home underdogs this season, and nobody in the game can take over a game quite like KD can. Furthering the Nets’ case to at least cover, the Bucks were 22-15 straight up as away favorites this season, but just 16-21 ATS as road favorites.

Nets vs. Bucks Picks & Predictions

But Milwaukee is just too strong—and too deep—to waste away a perfect opportunity to seize control of this series in enemy territory. The Bucks have their own Big Three—Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday—as well as a terrific supporting cast that should shine with better offensive spacing and more transition opportunities.

I do see this game becoming a bit of a barn-burner, and I’m surprised that sportsbooks have the over/under totals so low. In such a pivotal matchup, with two of the better players out, I would expect a more frenetic pace and a much more back-and-forth affair than the odds suggest. I especially love the OVER on the first-half total of 107.5, but I’ll probably spring for the OVER on the 217.5 game total as well. Hopefully we can package a Bucks moneyline win, Nets cover, and two overs for a sweet little Tuesday windfall.

HALFTIME SCORE PREDICTION: Bucks 60-57
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bucks 114-112

Schmitto’s Pick: The Game 5 spread was Nets +2.5 before Irving was officially ruled out, but there’s no doubt that oddsmakers had anticipated that news when opening the original line. The Nets wouldn’t have been home underdogs otherwise. Since then, we’ve seen the spread move as much as two points at some online sportsbooks. Now we’re getting some news on Harden as the Nets have upgraded the former MVP to doubtful for Game 5. He might be doubtful, but that’s better than ruled out. It’s difficult to decipher whether Harden’s upgrade is simply gamesmanship on behalf of the Nets coaching staff or true optimism that the Beard might be able to play. I, for one, won’t be shocked if Harden suits up and sees the floor. With or without Harden, I actually like the value on the Nets +4 playing at home. Durant is arguably the best player in the world, maybe the best scorer in NBA history, and he’s been presented with a golden opportunity to prove it in this series against the Bucks and Giannis. I’m not betting against Durant as a 4-point home underdog, that’s for sure.

NBA Pick: Nets +4

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