NBA Player Props for Thursday, 12/11: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Kevin Durant, Kevin Porter Jr., and Russell Westbrook? Follow along as our NBA betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for Thursday, December 11th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Thursday’s NBA slate features 4 games, with 3 of them scheduled for an 8:00 p.m. ET tip-off. The late game will feature Russell Westbrook and the Kings against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets.
It’s once again a busy day on the NBA injury report – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Zach LaVine, and Donovan Clingan have all been ruled out.
As always, keep an eye on the status of key players as we get closer to gametime, and be sure to use tools like RotoGrinders CourtIQ to search for inefficiencies in the player prop and DFS markets.
Below, you can find 3 of my favorite picks for Thursday, December 11th!
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Best NBA Player Props for Thursday, December 11th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with tip-off scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 11th:
- Kevin Durant Over/Under 26.5 Points
- Kevin Porter Jr. Over/Under 6.5 Assists
- Russell Westbrook Over/Under 17.5 Points
Kevin Durant UNDER 26.5 Points (-120, bet365)
BET365Durant has put together some impressive scoring performances this season with Tari Eason out of the lineup, but the market has adjusted for Eason’s absence here.
According to the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool, Durant has averaged only 23.1 points per 32 minutes with Eason off of the floor this season. In games in which Durant has attempted 8 or fewer free throws, he’s scored 25 points or fewer in 4 of his last 6 games with Eason unavailable and not more than 28 points in any individual matchup during that span – signaling limited upside above this market number.
Overall, Durant has only cleared this number in 6 of 17 games with fewer than 9 made free throws. Facing a Clippers team that does a pretty good job defending without fouling, the under likely has some value.
Kevin Porter Jr. OVER 6.5 Assists (-110, BetMGM)
BETMGMAccording to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, KPJ has averaged 7.1 assists per 36 minutes with Giannis Antetokounmpo off of the floor this season. In 2 games with Antetokounmpo unavailable, Porter has had 19 potential assists against the 76ers and 18 potential assists against the Pistons – 2 teams that do a pretty good job limiting assists to guards.
Tonight, Porter will face the Celtics, who have allowed the 2nd-most assists per game to guards during their last 8 contests. Bettors who are looking for a little bit more upside could consider a ladder in this spot, too.
Russell Westbrook UNDER 17.5 Points (-115, BetMGM)
BETMGMIn 5 games this season with both Domantas Sabonis and Dennis Schroder inactive, Westbrook has only cleared this number twice. In those 2 games, he shot an efficient 8-for-13 against the Suns and 10-for-16 from the field against the Pacers. Suffice it to say, that’s probably not going to be the norm for a player who hasn’t shot better than 45.4% from the field in any of his last 4 seasons.
This feels like a great sell-high spot after Westbrook had an incredibly efficient performance in 40 minutes of playing time on Monday.
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