NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks, Props: Heat-Bucks & Rockets-Thunder Best Bets
Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs wraps up tonight and Round 2 is already underway. The Nuggets took the first Game 7 of the year last night in ugly fashion with their 80-78 win over the Utah Jazz. As gross as that game was to watch, it served as a friendly reminder that the NBA is full of surprises. Did anyone expect a 158-point game in the Bubble? Of course not. Everybody expected another showdown between Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell and what we got was two teams who seemingly forgot how to play offense shooting an abysmal 38% from the field.
That game is in the past, but I’ll be keeping it in mind as the playoffs move forward. It’s the NBA Playoffs, and anything can happen in any one game. All we can do is try to find an edge, peruse online sportsbooks and NBA odds for the best bets and hope they hit.
In my last article I told you that you’d be crazy not to bet Jose Abreu to hit a dinger and he proceeded to hit 6 home runs in 3 games, so I feel obligated to take a look at MLB betting lines again and give another home run pick. Unfortunately it’s impossible for me to choose between Nelson Cruz and Eric Hosmer tonight, so you’ll have to take both. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming: tonight’s NBA Playoff slate.
NBA Playoffs Betting Odds for Today
Are Sportsbooks Wrong on Heat vs. Bucks?
If you’re a part of the group who sets the point spreads in the NBA Playoffs, you might feel like something was off in your model after watching two underdogs in the Celtics and Heat dominate the Raptors and Bucks, the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference, so far in their respective series. Or maybe not.
Also read: Betting Angles for the Bucks vs. Heat Series
NBA oddsmakers appear to be sticking to their guns so far in these two Eastern Conference series. The Celtics won by one thousand points in Game 1 and still found themselves underdogs last night in their Game 2 victory. They’ve looked like the better team on the floor both nights and haven’t shown any signs of slowing down. But sure enough, sportsbooks still believe the Raptors are the better team and have them as a 1-point favorite in Game 3.
The Heat Bucks series is a similar story. The Heat took Game 1 by 11 points despite being a 5-point underdog. Oddsmakers didn’t care. The Bucks are 5-point favorites in Game 2 as well. Everybody knows there’s a large amount of variance in the NBA, and like last night’s Game 7 showed us, anything can happen in any one game. But it’s tough to understand why sportsbooks haven’t made more adjustment to these NBA betting odds after watching how these teams have looked.
So the basic question we need to ask ourselves is this: Are oddsmakers outsmarting themselves? As a general rule of thumb, bettors should know that these guys are smarter than 99% of bettors and these markets, with plenty of liquidity, are extremely efficient. But might this year be different? Are sportsbooks relying on statistics from the old regular season that was paused on March 11? Are they being stubbornly sticking with their point spreads despite the fact that we are in uncharted territory with the NBA Bubble?
It kind of looks that way. I am usually very opposed to questioning these guys, but this year is unlike any other, so I think it’s fair to say the playing field has been leveled in these unprecedented circumstances. As a result, these lines might be softer than they have been in any other NBA postseason.
Wednesday’s NBA Betting Pick: Heat +5
I don’t need to explain myself any more than I already have. I watched the game the other day and I think these two teams are close to being equally talented. Oddsmakers are getting too cute giving the Heat 5 points in Game 2. Heat +5 is the bet until they change this line.
Best Bets for Rockets Thunder Game 7
This series has been so bizarre that trying to give an educated pick on it would be a futile effort. The series has been back and forth and to be honest I just don’t know what’s going to happen. That being said, Russell Westbrook has something to prove in this game after his miserable performance in Game 6, and he won’t be as rusty as he was Monday night. The Thunder left a lot on the court in that game and they relied on an unbelievable performance from Chris Paul down the stretch to squeak out a 4 point victory. Paul is one of the greats but I don’t see him mustering up another performance like that one. The Rockets are the better team and they might just go out and win this game by 20 points.
Wednesday’s NBA Betting Pick: Houston Rockets -5.5
NBA Player Props Picks
These props aren’t exactly “free money”, but they’re probably decent bets that are fun to root for.
Russell Westbrook OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-134)
This guy has to be angry and motivated to show up in this game. Unfortunately, playing angry won’t help him make shots, but it should force him to hustle. Westbrook grabbed 6 rebounds in his first game back on Saturday. He grabbed only 4 on Monday but he averaged 8 per game during the regular season. Expect Westbrook to be all over the court tonight, so I’d be stunned if he doesn’t pull down at least 6 boards.
Jae Crowder OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-132)
You don’t win 2011-12 Big East Player of the year unless you’re capable of ripping down 6 rebounds in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Seriously though, Crowder has been on a rebounding tear, grabbing at least 8 rebounds in three of his past four games.
Khris Middleton OVER 2.5 Made Threes (-132)
The Bucks lost Game 1 despite shooting 46% from beyond the arc. If they’re going to make an offensive adjustment, it should be to take more threes. Middleton went 4-for-8 last game and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t attempt at least 8 more tonight.
For more general NBA betting tips, check out our NBA guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images