NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/1/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both an NBA DFS and sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
Notable NBA Injuries – DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Fred VanVleet
No, this isn’t just a copy and paste job from yesterday’s article. The Raptors are facing off against the Nets in the second game of a home and away back-to-back on Tuesday night and Fred VanVleet is once again the most impactful Questionable player on the slate.
Yesterday I shared some ON/OFF numbers for the Raptors using the RotoGrinders’ CourtIQ tool when both FVV and OG Anunoby have been inactive. The highlight of those numbers was Gary Trent Jr. seeing notable boosts in both usage rate (+6.7%) and assist rate (+6.3%). Adding yesterday’s 30 minutes into the sample, Trent unsurprisingly still sees big boosts in both categories (+5.3% usage rate, +6.7% assist rate) despite a “down” game.
Trent failed to hit the over on his early morning 25.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists prop we found on ScoresAndOdds yesterday, ending the game with 12 points, 0 rebounds, and 5 assists. However, I still think there could be value in going back to the well for Tuesday night’s game at an even better line (23.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook).
Trent’s underwhelming performance on Monday can at least be partially explained by a few outlier events – a Scottie Barnes explosion (28/16/4), poor shooting (3-10), and a blowout that resulted in Trent logging just 30 minutes of court time instead of the high-30’s minutes he was projected for. It is worth noting that Malachi Flynn somewhat surprisingly starting in FVV’s absence last night – as opposed to a non ball handler like Chris Boucher or Thad Young – hurt Trent’s time on the ball, but this number is simply too low, especially if FVV does end up missing. Early morning projections at RotoGrinders have Trent projected for 26.23 Points, Rebounds, and Assists even with VanVleet projected to play, indicating that the Over is a favorable bet regardless of FVV’s status.
Kevin Porter Jr
KPJ missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and is officially listed as Questionable for Tuesday’s contest against the Clippers. The recently acquired Dennis Schroder has been the biggest beneficiary of KPJ’s absence purely from a minutes perspective. While Schroder would instantly become one of the slate’s top DFS value options, there are a couple of other Houston players worth exploring under the assumption KPJ misses.
Eric Gordon is one of those players, with his usage rate jumping +2.9% and assist rate seeing a +3.6% increase in 926.2 minutes played without KPJ. Gordon was a popular value option on Sunday’s DFS slate and put up an absolute dud with a 6/4/2 line in 31 minutes of action. I think some of this can be explained by Schroder now being available to replace KPJ in the starting lineup as opposed to some of the lower usage player Gordon has played alongside in the majority of his 926.2 minute sample. Schroder’s projected rates are extremely similar to those Porter’s, meaning I wouldn’t expect too much fluctuation in Gordon’s production regardless of KPJ’s availability now that Schroder is a member of the Rockets.
It would be fair to make the same conclusion about Christian Wood who has seen a small boost in his usage rate (+1.8%) when not sharing the court with KPJ this season. In fact, based on an extremely small 39.9 minute sample of KPJ OFF and Wood + Schroder ON, you could actually argue that sharing the court with Schroder is worse for Wood’s stat stuffing prospects (-4.1% usage rate, -6.7% assist rate, -4.67 DraftKings points per 36 minutes). While I think that is largely small sample size noise, it’s worth taking into consideration when looking at Wood’s player props on ScoresAndOdds. Wood’s Points, Rebounds, and Assists (28.5) prop is currently showing as a favorable Over play using RotoGrinders’ projections (31.97), but I would like to know who is suiting up at PG for the Rockets before pulling the trigger.
Player Image Credit: Imagn