NBA Starting 5 (GPP): Friday, March 16th
The Starting 5 series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, as analyzed by one of our daily fantasy sports experts.
Friday, March 16th
Happy Friday, Grinders! Welcome to the Friday edition of the NBA Starting 5 series! Fridays offer us solid slate sizes and large DFS tournaments, so it is a great day to analyze the NBA from a GPP perspective.
Let’s take a look at five of my favorite tournament plays of the day. For reference, I will be using DraftKings pricing throughout the article.
6:50 PM UPDATE – With Lowry being scratched at the last minute, add DeRozan and Delon Wright as plays and remove Tatum
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,600
This is a relatively short Friday slate by usual standards, and there are some bad NBA teams taking the court tonight. As such, there are not a whole lot of studs to pay up for. We also have a lot of injury status to monitor, as Paul George, Steven Adams, and Kevin Durant are all currently listed as questionable for tonight’s games. This is a slate where A LOT is likely to change between the time I write this article and the time rosters lock, so be sure to keep an eye on the news wires throughout the afternoon.
If you do prioritize one stud on this slate, it should probably be Mr. Westbrook. He will be popular, but he’s also clearly the favorite on the board to lead all players in fantasy points this evening. His upside gets even juicier if Adams and/or George don’t play — and obviously he is capable of getting the job done even if those guys are active. However, if George is out, Westbrook just might end up on a ton of my rosters tonight, as CourtIQ tells us that Westbrook has a massive 45.6% usage rate with George off the floor (a 9.5% increase over his full season rate). Westbrook just posted the 100th triple-double of his career the other night, and he is kicking things into over-drive as we get toward the end of the regular season.
The Thunder own the highest team total on the board despite the injury concerns, and it’s difficult to see Westbrook posting anything less than 50 fantasy points tonight. There is plenty of value out there, so prioritize this man.
Shooting Guard: D’Angelo Russell, Brooklyn Nets – $6,500
Russell was the talk of the DFS community the other night when he scored a whopping 24 points in the first seven minutes of the game in a difficult matchup against the Raptors. He slowed down after that, but that quarter was a reminder of his ever-present upside. The price tag is still very affordable in the $6,000 range on DraftKings, and the Nets appear comfortable with him playing alongside Spencer Dinwiddie. Russell probably doesn’t fit the ideal cash game build on this slate, but I like the idea of peppering him in some GPP lineups with that potential ceiling. He has 58 actual points scored over his last two games, and the usage is definitely there. Fire him up as a mid-range option on this Friday slate.
Small Forward: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics – $6,200
Even though Al Horford is returning tonight, the Celtics remain thin in the backcourt and on the wings. Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Kyrie Irving all remain sidelined, which should mean plenty of minutes for Jayson Tatum; he logged 46 of them in the double overtime game against the Wizards earlier this week.
The most encouraging thing is that the Celtics are leaning on him in key moments. With Irving sidelined, Tatum took a couple cracks at potential game winners in that overtime contest the other night. While his NBA career has been full of ups and downs to this point, there’s no denying the potential. This is also a fantastic matchup against an Orlando squad that doesn’t mind running and doesn’t play much defense. I like Tatum’s chances of having a high upside game here, and he will be a staple of my GPP player pool tonight.
Power Forward: James Johnson, Miami Heat – $5,200
Bam Adebayo is the obvious cash game play from the Heat tonight (though he is a little more expensive on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel). However, I’ll highlight the upside of James Johnson in this article. While the playing time is sometimes frustrating, we shouldn’t have to worry about that tonight. Wade and Whiteside remain sidelined, and Josh Richardson is doubtful. The team was forced to start Luke Babbitt the other night, and Babbitt didn’t even end up playing 20 minutes. The court time should be secure for Johnson this evening, and I love his potential against the fast-paced Lakers. His style suits this game to perfection, and Johnson is also coming off a massive 18/10/7 line in 34 minutes against the Kings the other night. I’ll gladly take him at an affordable $5,200 price tag on DraftKings.
Center: Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings – $6,200
Here is the risk/reward play of the night. The Kings are a scary bunch to target at this point of the season, because it’s a real wild card regarding who is going to get the minutes. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Cauley-Stein re-entered the starting lineup the other night, and he played the most minutes on the team in the overtime game against the Heat the other night. With Skal Labissiere still ailing and questionable to play tonight, we should be able to be comfortable with a healthy workload for WCS. He had a full line with 10 points, nine boards, and five steals/blocks in that game, and we know the upside is there. He also has the potential to play well in a run-and-gun kind of game with Golden State, whereas Sacramento’s other bigs like Kosta Koufos do not profile well in that kind of game. Don’t go all in here, but Cauley-Stein is a fine GPP upside option.