NBA Starting 5 (GPP): Monday, December 11th

The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, as analyzed by one of our daily fantasy sports experts.

Monday, December 11th

Welcome to another Monday edition of the Starting Five. We have a really fun six-game slate and most importantly we have a later 8 PM ET start, so remember you have that extra hour to work with when building lineups.

With this being a six-game slate, there is going to be a fair amount of chalk today, but I want to turn your attention to a pivot at every position. Not every one of these guys will go off (if they did I would be in the Magic 8-Ball business) but rather are names you could use to give yourself a different lineup construction than the field. All prices/stats are focused on DraftKings.

Point Guard: Kris Dunn – $6,100 – Chicago Bulls

With multiple elite guards in play and Rajon Rondo priced right below Kris Dunn, this is a spot where Dunn could potentially go underowned. Yes, his matchup against Boston isn’t the best, but PGs have had the easiest time scoring against Boston, and Dunn’s usage rate has been elite. He has a 26.4% usage rate and is averaging 1.07 DK points per minute with Chicago. While this game will likely be slower, Dunn also could be in line for more usage with Holiday, Valentine and Lauri having tough matchups. There is no doubt there is risk here, but as we saw over the weekend, if Dunn gets hot no one can stop him. Getting 45-50 points at a $6K price tag is always in play here.

UPDATE: Kyrie Irving has been ruled out and Al Horford is questionable, which makes this an even more competitive spot (might even play slightly faster), so I like Dunn even more. That said, Terry Rozier ($4,100) will also be one of the chalk value plays on the day.

Shooting Guard: Jeremy Lamb – $5,000 – Charlotte Hornets

Lamb was questionable heading into this morning, but it’s already been announced that we will play tonight and that Nicolas Batum will be out. Lamb has done quite well without Batum in the lineup, sporting a 25.3% usage rate (.5% bump) and a 1 DK point per minute average. With him having the ability to play 30-34 points in this pace-up spot, there is a lot of upside at this $5K price tag. I will like this spot even more if Andre Roberson, who is questionable, gets ruled out.

A couple other punt guards that could be interesting include Eric Gordon, who has the hot shooting game coming at some point, and Alex Abrines if Roberson and/or George are ruled out.

Small Forward: Danilo Gallinari – $5,300 – Los Angeles Clippers

I could see a road in which Gallinari is chalk before lock (I think he should be), but in case he isn’t I’m going to spell out the case here. Gallinari has been working his way back from the glute injury, but last time out looked like vintage Gallinari, playing 34 minutes and taking 19 shots. This year, with Blake Griffin off the floor, Gallinari has had a 25.2% usage rate. If you are telling me I can find a player getting that much usage who will get a good amount of his minutes playing the stretch four against Ibaka, I like his upside on the offensive side. Foul trouble could be an issue if he gets too aggressive against Ibaka, but Gallinari is a guy who can put up 35-40 fantasy points at around a $5K price tag, so I have GPP interest.

Power Forward: James Johnson – $5,400 – Miami Heat

Forward is a very weak position today and I don’t feel great about any of the options, but I’m going to take advantage of James Johnson, as he’s entered the starting lineup the last two games and played well in both (the Spurs game was a blowout). Johnson should draw a favorable matchup against JaMychal Green, one that should allow him to get a good number of rebounds, so if he can get his way to 13-15 points a double double isn’t out of the question. Note: If Roberson is out, Jerami Grant at $3,700 could be the guy to fill in; he isn’t sexy, but he can get you fantasy points in all the categories.

Center: Aron Baynes – $3,700 – Boston Celtics

With no Marcus Morris, look for the Celtics to start big to avoid Al Horford (if he plays) having to guard Lopez. Lopez is one of the worst rebounding centers in the NBA, so although this isn’t a spot in which Baynes will play 30+ minutes (although not impossible versus this big team and no Morris), he can go for 10-10 in 20-22 minutes. If value becomes hard to find, Baynes is a solid punt that will be under 1% owned.

UPDATE: Well, Kyrie is out and Horford is questionable with that injury sustained yesterday. I suspect he sits, which means that Baynes would be in line for 24-28 minutes, and that would make him mega chalk. I also don’t mind a GPP dart throw on Daniel Theis (if Horford out obviously), who has played well off the bench but hasn’t put the good all-around game yet. He will be under 5% owned and has the ability to score in the mid-20s in terms of DK points if he makes a few threes. To reiterate, Robin Lopez is still one of the worst rebounding centers in the league.

As always, leave comments and thoughts in the comments. Good luck everyone!

About the Author

  • CJ Kaltenbach (theseige)

  • A popular contributor for RotoGrinders, C.J. Kaltenbach, aka TheSeige, is an attorney turned DFS professional who has made multiple live finals including winning the 2015 FantasyAces College Football Championship. He is consistently ranked in the top 100 of the RotoGrinders rankings in all major sports. He currently co-hosts The Morning Grind along with stevietpfl and can frequently be found on various GrindersLive shows

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Comments

  • mrplow01

    I’m not quite following the logic here. You like Dunn more with Kyrie OUT? He’s gonna get even more minutes guarded by Smart now

  • GorillaDad

    Smart can’t do much offensively but he is a MAJOR pest on D which is why I’m hesitant to use Dunn.

  • theseige

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @mrplow01 said...

    I’m not quite following the logic here. You like Dunn more with Kyrie OUT? He’s gonna get even more minutes guarded by Smart now

    Rozier is going to get the majority of the PG minutes imo, expecting a lot of Smart on Holiday in the SG slot but if you think those matchups will be reversed lock in Justin Holiday

  • rrtrifecta

    Update:

    giving you a pass on Gallo late scratch but the other 4 are all on pace for less than 5× 3/4 of the way through the night.

    How do you do this so consistently? Would you publish your GPP ROI?

  • rrtrifecta

    Lamb: garbage
    Dunn: garbage
    Gallo: DNP (not holding that against you)
    Baynes: garbage
    Johnson: garbage

    I would wager 10k that taking 20 lineups with your 5 GPP picks as the core for the last month would have a negative ROI almost no matter who the other guys were. And likely something like -50%

  • theseige

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @rrtrifecta said...

    Lamb: garbage
    Dunn: garbage
    Gallo: DNP (not holding that against you)
    Baynes: garbage
    Johnson: garbage

    I would wager 10k that taking 20 lineups with your 5 GPP picks as the core for the last month would have a negative ROI almost no matter who the other guys were. And likely something like -50%

    good to see your reading comp is as good as ever

  • JQuailman

    @rrtrifecta said...

    Lamb: garbage
    Dunn: garbage
    Gallo: DNP (not holding that against you)
    Baynes: garbage
    Johnson: garbage

    I would wager 10k that taking 20 lineups with your 5 GPP picks as the core for the last month would have a negative ROI almost no matter who the other guys were. And likely something like -50%

    If you base your lineups on this one very complentary article, then you’re doing it wrong. It’s the NBA.

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