NBA Starting 5: Thursday, January 12th
Hey, kids. Boy oh boy do we have an interesting little slate today. We have two games that have a good potential for a blowout, every game has a high over/under, and we have a few very relevant injuries. This is not the type of day in which you can set your lineup early on, and then just forget about it and go watch a Family Feud marathon. The decision of whether Anthony Davis plays or not will completely change your entire lineup composition today. If he plays, then I’m about as likely to have him out of my lineup as I am to try vegan cheese and actually like it.
Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and Advanced Player Stats. Fade these plays at your own risk.
Point Guard: Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans, $7,000
First off, a lot of this hinges on whether or not Davis plays. If Davis is out, then Holiday will be in every single one of my lineups and probably the lineups of every single person in DFS who has the mental ability to press the lock button. Holiday is going up against the absolute nut matchup for a PG, and for any position for that matter. Brooklyn is ranked 30th in DvP against the PG, dead last, and gives up a mouth-watering 54.87 FPPG at the position.
Jrue Holiday owns ONLY a 24.65% usage percentage, but if you take a look at RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool, we see that without Davis on the court it pops up to over 31%, which would be the highest on the slate. If Davis is not on the court, it’s hard to see anyone wanting to fade Holiday on this particular slate and I think that you shouldn’t either, but if Davis does play, then it should suppress Holiday’s ownership a little bit and may make him a better play considering that his floor and upside are still going to be fairly high considering his price tag. Play him in either scenario.
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade, Chicago Bulls, $6,800
I’m not going to lie at this point right now, my article is just writing itself for me. Wade owns around a 29% usage rate which is pretty darn close to the highest on this slate at his position, but there one useful piece of information which can make this play more attractive than Emma Watson wearing a skimpy wizard robe bringing you a steak (sorry, just watched Harry Potter and haven’t eaten yet). Jimmy Butler is not playing tonight. If you take a look at RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool you can see that Wade’s usage rate skyrockets to 41.6%. To put that in perspective, that’s right up there with Russell Westbrook usage rate which is on pace to be the highest in NBA history.
Wade is going to be a lock in cash tonight and is going to be an incredibly hard fade in GPP. My suggestion is to lock him in and find another way to differentiate your lineup tonight.
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks, $7,300
This is a night where the top to SF plays of the night belongs to guys who have a really good shot at ending up in a blowout by the time they head into the locker room at half time for tea and crackers (really not sure what goes on during NBA halftimes). With GS and SA playing at home against subpar teams tonight, there really aren’t too many trustworthy SFs to pay off value, and that leaves us with Anthony. If you look at DvP then you can see that he is going up against the 14th ranked DvP at the SF position, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Butler (who owns a 1.42 DRPM) is out tonight, meaning Anthony is going to be facing off against Doug McDermott tonight, who owns a DRPM of -1.47 which ranks 76th among SFs.
Melo has been inconsistent as of late, and it does worry me a little bit coming of a game in which he played 37 minutes last night, but Anthony has the upside you need to take down a GPP if his shots are falling. It’s okay if you want to fade Anthony for a cheaper option in cash tonight, but I’m a big fan of him in GPPs. If you want to go a little safer, Barnes is a bit cheaper and should have more secure minutes and points.
Power Forward: Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers, $6,600
Okay, before you grab your pitchforks and chase me down and rip the bolts out of my neck, hear me out for a second. If Davis plays tonight, put him in here and move on. There should be zero thought on your side tonight at this position if Davis plays tonight. ZERO. But there is a chance he won’t play tonight, and if that happens, then you’ve got some decisions to make.
Randle is probably not the safest guy tonight for cash as he’s facing one of the toughest defensive matchups tonight and there is the chance of a blowout. So, if you’re playing cash tonight then I suggest you go with Barnes at around the same price as he’s a much safer option, but Randle is a great GPP option tonight. The blowout risk and tough matchup should keep more people off of him than it really should. His price has dropped from $7,400 all the way down to $6,600 since his last game against Portland, and that was a game where he shot 2-9 from the floor and only put up 22 fantasy points in a blowout. Prior to that he was a virtual lock for 30 to 40 points and had 50+ point upside. He’s ranked only sixth on the slate in terms of usage, but has triple-double upside on any given night and can really help you take down a GPP on a night where there are a few incredibly chalky options.
Center: Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons, $7,500
I’m not going to lie: this was my public place Viagra moment. Things got hard here and I wasn’t sure what to do. Outside of Davis and Randle, there aren’t a lot of great options and nearly none of them are very safe, so the game here is upside.
Drummond didn’t have a great game in Detroit’s first meeting against GS this year (putting up only 33 points), but in both meetings last year against GS Drummond put up about 42 and 45 fantasy points. He owns a 29.76% POW-Reb and has a real shot at 20+ rebounds in the game if it stays close. Again, this is not the safest option and his 7.5k price tag is a little steep. I wouldn’t trust him for cash, but on a night when there are very few good options at the C position and virtually no safe ones outside of Davis, you’re going to need to get a little creative. Drummond is the girl with a full set of teeth in an Arkansas Sizzler. The best of a bad situation. If you’re going to play, you know who to go for.