NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, December 20th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
I liked the format of last week’s article, so I’ll be using the Ceiling and Consistency tool to identify plays on FanDuel based on consistent high floors with upside. The focus here is cash games, though players that reach the 5x or 6x threshold often are certainly in play in tournaments as well.
We have a huge 11-game slate tonight, so we shouldn’t have much trouble finding players that satisfy our consistency criteria. Today, I’ll be filtering based on the last four weeks as I’m more concerned with what players have been doing recently. Roles change as the season progresses, and I don’t want early season metrics that occurred under different team circumstances to skew the results.
Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Miami Heat, $7,500 on FanDuel
If we sort the table by 4x, we see that Jerryd Bayless is the only player at 100%. He’s out for the season, so he’s not in play. Moving down we see Dragic who, after a slow start to the season, has really stepped up while Miami has dealt with several injuries. Players like Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow have returned, but they aren’t consistent contributors on offense.
The biggest impact is the absence of Dion Waiters, and while he’s out, Dragic will continue to dominate ball handling responsibilities. He’s been remarkably consistent, and I’m not worried about the occasional down game, especially when two recent ones came on the road against the Pistons and Cavs. Those are just bad matchups. What is also encouraging is his 61.54% mark for 5x or greater. Only George Hill has a higher mark over the past four weeks, and he’s not playing tonight. In a plus matchup against an Orlando team that ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards, Dragic makes a lot of sense in both cash games and tournaments.
Shooting Guard: Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets, $4,800
A quick look at the table for shooting guards reveals that Gary Harris is absolutely crushing it relative to his salary. We only have a three game sample, but Harris is consistently seeing 30 or more minutes, is shooting the ball very well, and has eclipsed 30 fantasy points in two of those three games. A road matchup against the Clippers is not really what we want to see, and it’s worth mentioning that they rank second against opposing shooting guards, but consistency is not something you often find at the shooting guard position outside of elite options like Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden, players who aren’t really shooting guards.
Harris is a nice value option that you can plug in alongside one of those two players. It goes without saying that both Giannis and Harden are terrific options you’ll want to be targeting tonight, and I wanted to give another option as rostering both will likely be very difficult.
Small Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers, $10,400
James is an extremely consistent option at a position that is often tough to fill. Consistency is tough to come by at small forward, and while Gordon Hayward and Kawhi Leonard are also solid options, I worry about a blowout with Hayward, and I think LeBron simply has more upside relative to his salary than Leonard today.
The Cavs will be without Kevin Love, which means a lot of offensive production and rebounding has to go somewhere. James and Kyrie Irving will pick up the majority of the slack, meaning we should expect a big game from James in a game where the Cavs are unlikely to blow the Bucks out.
Power Forward: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets, $5,900
Jokic played 38 minutes last night, which is extremely encouraging. With Jusuf Nurkic out of the rotation, we can finally expect Jokic to see around 30 minutes going forward each night. HIs matchup tonight is improved by the absence of Blake Griffin, and with him out of action, it’s less likely this game gets out of hand at the Staples Center.
When you look at Jokic’s consistency numbers, you have to remember that almost all of those results came with Jokic playing 20 to 25 minutes. If he’s going to see over 30, you can give a significant boost to all of those values. I think Denver hangs around in this one, and given Jokic’s ability to rack up fantasy points at an elite rate, he’s an excellent bargain at just $5,900.
Center: Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers, $6,300
Turner is another player where we need to be cognizant of a change in circumstances. For a while, Turner would often see well under 30 minutes, which is skewing the results we see in the consistency table. Lately he’s been seeing 30 or more minutes, and if that were the case all along, and he were still $6,300, he’d look like one of the easiest plays on the board. He’s eclipsed 30 fantasy points in five of his last six and draws a very favorable matchup against a Knicks team that’s currently ranked 25th in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing centers this season.
Turner’s price just hasn’t caught up to his recent production, so we should continue targeting him until it does.