NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, January 26th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at two of my favorite tools: the NBA Trending Stats Watch as well as the Defense vs Position page.
We’ll use FanDuel pricing and in particular will look at the Defense vs Position tool to see who has a good matchup, and then look towards the “FPTS” tab of the Trending Stats Watch to try to find players who are also playing above their salary threshold.
Point Guard: Archie Goodwin
Let’s start by looking at the top DvP matchups on the day:
The Lakers (Deron Williams), Suns (Ish Smith), Nets (Miami PG), Trail Blazers (Rajon Rondo), and Kings (Damian Lillard) have all really struggled against PG this season. Williams, Ish, Rondo and Lillard are all in play tonight with Lillard my personal preferred target. He has the most offensive upside of that group, and will be facing a Sacramento team that is poor defensively and played a double overtime game last night.
I normally like to look for players that overlap in the DvP category as well as the Trending Stats Watch:
Looking at the above “FPTS” tab, Rondo is the only player that checks in on both lists. I like Rondo tonight and he’s a top 5 option at PG for me, but I’m a little leery of the road back to back after a double over time game, so I’m “manually” bumping Lillard up on my own list. Looking at the “FPTS” list, Archie Goodwin really jumps out. Brandon Knight has been ruled out for tonight and the theme of the day will be value with the Suns. Archie has averaged 24 FD PPG over the past week, which is 6x value, and has played close to 40 MPG over his last two games. He’s an ideal value option to pair with Lillard, Rondo, or Russell Westbrook.
Shooting Guard: Devin Booker with a side of DeMar DeRozan or C.J. McCollum
Let’s start again by digging into the DvP rankings:
Of the teams playing today, the Kings (C.J. McCollum), Lakers (Wesley Matthews), Suns, and Washington (DeMar DeRozan) have all been very poor defending SG. There’s enough value today where I don’t feel the need to save with Matthews, so C.J. McCollum and DeMar DeRozan are my premier options here. Going further down the list, we’ll see that the Pacers (J.J. Redick) or Jamal Crawford), Nets (Dwyane Wade), Bucks (Victor Oladipo) and 76ers (Devin Booker) have also been poor.
Now let’s look to see if anyone on the above DvP list has also seen a big boost in fantasy production:
With Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe both out, Booker has picked up both increased minutes as well as usage. As we can see that has translated into a big uptick in fantasy production as he’s averaging 14 FD points above his season average over the past week. His price hasn’t adjusted to his recent production, so he’s a great value that also finds himself with a favorable matchup.
DeMar DeRozan also finds himself on both lists as he’s averaging 39 FD PPG over the past week. As mentioned the matchup is great with Washington and the savings with Booker allows us to pair him with DeRozan or McCollum.
Small Forward: Chandler Parsons
Here are the DvP numbers against SF:
Looking at the DvP list above, the 76ers (P.J. Tucker), Wizards, Suns (Robert Covington), Lakers (Chandler Parsons), and Bucks (Tobias Harris) have all coughed up big days to SF. Each of those options are priced below $6,500, and make solid potential pairings with a guy like Kevin Durant. Now let’s look at recent play to see if anyone separates from the group.
As we can see, Parsons has really started to play better basketball and is starting to look more like his old self. It must be noted that some of that production came with Dirk Nowitzki missing a game, but Parsons’ recent play is very encouraging. Robert Covington also checks in high on both lists and is another value option at SF. Finally, P.J. Tucker would also check in on this list but his production is being held down by a game in which he played just 6 minutes due to injury. In his other two games, he’s averaged 29 FD PPG and over 40 minutes. Parsons looks like the best bet, but if you can’t afford him then Tucker and Covington are viable options to pair with a guy like Kevin Durant, who is averaging 47 FD PPG the past week.
Power Forward: Willie Cauley-Stein / Myles Turner
Once again let’s start with the DvP:
The Kings (Meyers Leonard), 76ers (Phoenix PF), Bucks (Aaron Gordon), Mavericks (Lakers PF), Portland (Willie Cauley-Stein), and Lakers (Dirk Nowitzki) have been solid teams to target PF against. We’ll have to wait on the Phoenix PF to see if Markieff Morris is inserted into the starting lineup. There looks like some solid potential value options, so let’s cross check with the “FPTS” tab.
Two names really jump at PF: Willie Cauley-Stein and Myles Turner. Willie is averaging close to 7x value this week, and with Rudy Gay set to miss tonight’s game, his minutes become very secure. I don’t love the road back to back off a double overtime game but at his price point there is more room for error. The other player is Myles Turner. He’s seen a big uptick with Ian Mahinmi out and is averaging 34 FD PPG this week. He’ll play both PF and C for the Pacers and as we’ll see below, the Clippers have not fared well against centers. Chris Bosh and Dirk Nowitzki are fine options but a pairing of Willie and Myles at PF really allows for cap room to spend at other positions.
Center: DeMarcus Cousins
Now onto the toughest position on the night at FanDuel as there several great options:
The Lakers (Salah Mejri), 76ers (Tyson Chandler), Clippers (Jordan Hill & Myles Turner), Kings (Mason Plumlee), and Portland (DeMarcus Cousins) are all great teams to attack at the center position. Mejri and Chandler are both dirt cheap on FD and loom as potential value options, while Cousins has been out of his mind recently. As evidenced by the DvP rankings, the Portland interior just doesn’t have the talent or size to match up with him. As noted with Myles Turner in the PF section, the Clippers struggle against centers. Now onto the “FPTS” tab:
Center is pretty stacked but looking at the DvP as well as the Trending Stats Watch, we can narrow our options down to Tyson Chandler, Salah Mejri, and DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is averaging an absolutely silly 63 FD PPG this week, and went off again last night. The matchup is there and the recent production is there, but the problem is that he played a ton of minutes in a double overtime game last night, so there is some viable concern about tired legs. For me, his upside is too high, so he’s a guy that I’ll have some exposure to.
If you are concerned about the potential tired legs then Chandler and Mejri both look like great value options. Mejri started and played 29 minutes with Zaza out last game and produced 26 FD points, while Chandler is back to being a great rebounder. As we saw in the DvP charts, both have great matchups. I’m still debating the Mejri vs Chandler vs Cousins problem in my head, but in terms of DvP and recent production each are great plays on paper.