NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, March 21st
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’re going to be looking at the Ceiling and Consistency tool to identify strong cash game plays on FanDuel. Due to the nature of the NBA and the fact that some players have been thrust into major roles after spending much of the season on the sidelines, looking at a season-long view is simply not helpful. Often times, we’re going to want to took at just the past week, or perhaps the past four weeks to get an idea of what a player has been doing recently. Always remember to consider when a player’s role changed as a four week view might not be indicative of that player’s actual worth.
Point Guard: Tyler Ulis, Phoenix Suns, $6,400
Ulis’s price is up, but who cares when you’re getting a starting point guard logging 40 minutes and crushing value every night? I’ve chosen a one week view for Ulis as he just recently became the team’s starting point guard after Eric Bledsoe was shut down for the season. Over the past three games, Ulis has played no less than 39 minutes and has finished above 5x every time. In fact, he’s eclipsed 6x twice. There are better matchups than a road game against the Heat, but the Pistons aren’t a great matchup either, and he posted 41 fantasy points over 43 minutes against them. I’m not at all concerned about Ulis tonight, and despite likely having high ownership, he’s an absolute must for me in cash games, and a guy I would want tournament exposure to as well.
Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors, $7,000
We have eight games on tonight’s slate, and the shooting guard position is as dreadful as ever. Most players are overpriced relative to the floors and ceilings they offer, but one option stands out. I’ve chosen a one week view for Klay Thompson as the four week time frame includes too many games before Kevin Durant got hurt. With Durant out, Thompson’s usage and scoring are way up. Thompson is one of a handful of shooting guards that is consistently finishing above 4x, and given the other guys are cheap options that can drop a dud or see their minutes cut at any time, Thompson is the obvious number one cash game play at shooting guard.
Small Forward: Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers, $4,500
Ingram is an easy value cash game play tonight at the small forward position. As you can see, over the past week he’s finished at or above 5× 100% of the time. If we switch to a four week view, he’s reached that mark 66.67% of the time. That’s a terrific return on a value option at a position like small forward. Plus, he’s logging nearly 40 minutes every night, so there’s no need to worry about him randomly getting his minutes cut. This is often a problem with other, riskier value options, and we want to avoid those types of situations in cash games whenever possible. Look for Ingram to finish in his typical 20 to 25 fantasy point range, and continue targeting him in cash games while his price remains too low.
Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs, $7,000
It wasn’t easy to find a player to write up at power forward. Sure, Anthony Davis is always a great option, and that goes without saying, but a matchup with Memphis leaves much to be desired. Many of the players who showed up with high 4x or 5x values over the past week simply cannot be trusted in cash games. Dirk Nowitzki looked pretty good, but he’ll likely get the Draymond Green treatment tonight, which makes him a tough sell for me. That left Aldridge, who has been very consistent recently and draws a good matchup against the Timberwolves. The Spurs are only five-point favorites, so we shouldn’t see Aldridge playing less than his typical allotment of minutes. I think he’ll finish at or above 30 fantasy points tonight, and it’s extremely unlikely he hurts your cash game lineup.
Center: Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trail Blazers, $6,700
Aside from a complete dud in a daunting matchup against Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, Nurkic has been fantastic. Ivica Zubac cannot be trusted in cash games, and while Alan Williams has been crushing value regularly as well, I’d much rather take Nurkic against the soft Milwaukee bigs than Williams against Hassan Whiteside. We’re looking at a four week view, and Nurkic checks in with the second-highest 4x percentage ( I’m not counting Timofey Mozgov one random game ) and third-highest 5x percentage.after the aforementioned Zubac and Williams. He’s also posted the highest 6x percentage. I see no reason to avoid him in a terrific matchup against the Bucks. He’s my top cash game option at the center position as he should post a huge game, easily surpassing 5x.