NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, March 7th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
We have a very small three-game slate tonight, so I recommend avoiding cash games. Today’s picks are going to focus solely on tournament play, so please be aware that factors like consistency and high floors are not necessarily going to be important to me. I’m looking for guys who can crush value, and may be low owned as well. I’m going to use the Ceiling and Consistency tool to identify some high upside plays on FanDuel.
Point Guard: Tyler Ulis, Phoenix Suns, $5,300
Ulis is a terrific play tonight, and while I expect he’ll be somewhat popular, hopefully the proliferation of stud point guards will drive his ownership down a bit. I’ve shown a last week view using the tool as Ulis has just recently been seeing significant minutes. The Suns have no reason not to give their young guys minutes, and that’s exactly what they’re doing. Ulis recently logged 33 against Boston, and I suspect that 6x column would have a much higher value if he were to see that sort of playing time on a nightly basis. We’re looking at a player with over 30 fantasy point upside at a very cheap $5,300 price tag, making him a very solid tournament play tonight. A likely close, high-scoring game against the Wizards only serves to boost his potential value.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards, $8,000
I’ve sorted by 5x here as the 6x sort wasn’t too helpful. Many of the guys at the top are players who either won’t play tonight, or won’t play enough to matter. Plus, it’s not as if anyone had a particularly high percentage over the past four weeks anyway. Beal is my favorite tournament play tonight as I’m hoping the high price tag might drive ownership down a bit. I imagine Seth Curry will be popular, and he’s certainly a solid play, but he also doesn’t have much upside above 30 fantasy points. Beal is a guy who can take over a game, get hot, and drop nearly 40 real points. Given the extremely favorable matchup against the Suns, Beal is in a terrific position to post a big line, and I believe he’ll end up being the best per dollar play at the shooting guard position tonight.
Small Forward: Bojan Bogdanovic, Washington Wizards, $4,000
For a three game slate, there are a lot of options at the small forward position, and any one of them could have a big game. Several of them could bust as well, so you’re going to want to spread out your exposure. I like Bogdanovic for a number of reasons tonight. One, he may go overlooked because of how many small forward options there are. Two, he draws a terrific matchup with the Suns. Three, he’s exceeded 6x in two of his past four games, which is significant given he hasn’t been a member of the Wizards for very long. And four, he operates as one of the primary scoring options with Washington’s woeful second unit, meaning that while he may not play over 30 minutes, his 25 or so minutes on the court are going to be high quality. He’ll see plenty of shot attempts, and the boost in pace and lack of resistance on defense that Phoenix offers should result in a strong line.
Power Forward: Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns, $4,300
Chriss is certainly not a player you’d want to target in cash games, but since we’re focusing solely on tournaments today, we need to get some exposure. Over the past four weeks, Chriss has exceeded 6× 27.27% of the time, which is the highest mark of any power forward in play today given Thomas Robinson is not an option. The Wizards have defended opposing power forwards very poorly recently, and while Chriss is certainly a bust risk, he’s also capable of delivering a 30+ fantasy point performance, which, at just $4,300, offers a fantastic return on your investment.
Center: Alan Williams, Phoenix Suns, $5,500
There’s no reason to get cute at the center position. In cash games, Williams will be extremely high owned, but he’ll see lower ownership in tournaments with players getting exposure to lower-owned options. I’d rather just let other people fade Williams and get maximum exposure to him with the assumption that he’s much more likely to crush value than bust tonight. Over the past four weeks, he’s exceeded 6× 50% of the time, which includes games where he barely saw the court. Now that he has a consistent role and is seeing big minutes, his $5,500 price tag is laughable. Just lock him in and look to diversify elsewhere.