NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, November 29th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’re going to look at the Ceiling and Consistency tool to identify today’s top cash game plays on FanDuel. This has always been one of my favorite tools to use as rather than sifting through game logs to find out which players are getting it done on a nightly basis, I can simply sort by a 4x or 5x value threshold to get a quick look at who the safe, high floor players are.
As always, we need to utilize other research methods to narrow down our favorite plays, but this has always served me well as an initial starting point. Late news and players missing due to injury will almost always take precedence later on in the day, but this is where I stand right now.
Point Guard: George Hill, Utah Jazz, $6,800 on FanDuel
I’m not thrilled with the point guard position on FanDuel today, and it’s looking like a position where I’ll end up on players based on what I do with the rest of my lineup, rather than locking anyone in as a must play. There are players with good matchups, such as Chris Paul against Brooklyn, but he’s the type of player who often settles in as a facilitator, often failing to pay off his hefty price tag even in the most favorable of matchups. My favorite play from the group is George Hill, priced at only $6800. As we can see from the chart above, Hill is as consistent as it gets. Only Kyrie Irving has a better 4x rate (86.67%) than Hill, but I’m willing to take that small drop given Hill’s 5x rate crushes Irving’s (33.33%). In what projects to be a close, high-scoring (for a Utah game, anyway) game, Hill is a lock for mid-30s in minutes and a floor of around 30. He’s not going to have that monster 50 point game, but with the way things are looking at point guard, I don’t think you need that from him. He’s my favorite point-per-dollar play at the position, and while he’s a near lock to make my cash game lineup, he’s viable in tournaments as well.
Shooting Guard: Jeremy Lamb, Charlotte Hornets, $4,000
This is a good example of when we can’t simply lock into whomever shows up at the top of our chart. If we sort by 4x or 5x, we get James Harden, who is obviously a safe cash game play in any matchup, and Lou Williams, who is mostly returning between 4x and 5x with little upside over that. Sorting by 6x identifies Jeremy Lamb, who has absolutely crushed value over the past two games, posting big lines as both a starter and off the bench. We can ignore most of his values because he’s been injured most of the season and played less than 10 minutes in three games. He saw 23 minutes off the bench last night, and I think it’s safe to project him for something similar. Given he’s the clear number one option for the second unit, I’ll happily pay $4000 with the expectation that he should get at least 20 fantasy points with obvious upside for much more.
Small Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers, $10,100
We have three solid option at small forward in LeBron, Gordon Hayward, and Kawhi Leonard. All are posting similar consistency numbers, though I would argue that LeBron’s floor is much higher relative to his salary than the other two. LeBron is never going to take a back seat offensively, while Hayward and Leonard are certainly capable of having down games. Hayward can struggle if his shot isn’t falling, and Leonard is involved in what’s likely going to be an ugly blowout win against a very bad, and very slow-paced Magic team. I expect the Bucks to keep this one relatively close in Milwaukee, meaning James should see a full complement of minutes and finish with a bare minimum of 40 fantasy points with upside well over 50. He’s the safest play for me at the small forward position, though I won’t be surprised if I end up with two of the three aforementioned players in my cash game lineup.
Power Forward: Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets, $4,700
Kaminsky will get another shot at the starting lineup tonight with Marvin Williams out of action. All he does is return 5x value, and he’s a lock to make my cash game lineup tonight. When we look at the chart, we have to consider that these are season long values, and Kaminsky’s role has not been a starter playing 30+ minutes every game this season. If he had been, and were priced at $4700 like he is tonight, we’d likely see some very impressive percentages for each of the value multipliers. I’ll take the safety he offers along with the salary cap relief so I can spend up at positions that aren’t offering strong value plays.
Center: Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons, $8,100
If you want consistency at the center position, you’re better off avoiding tonight’s slate. None of the options rate particularly well, but Drummond is probably the safest of the bunch. Tristan Thompson looks ok as well, and I don’t mind him if he’s the last guy into a lineup that you love. Just keep in mind that he offers nothing offensively, and has a fairly low floor as evidenced by a couple of complete duds this season. Drummond feels like a safe bet for at least 30 fantasy points tonight, and we’re all aware of his massive upside if he really gets rolling. The matchup against a soft Charlotte front court is favorable, and given this is likely to be a close game, we shouldn’t have to worry about minutes. I realize it’s not a ringing endorsement, but we have to take what the slate gives us.