NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, April 5th
Tonight we have an eight-game slate to attack. We have nine teams (Charlotte, Toronto, Oklahoma City, Memphis, Denver, Cleveland, San Antonio, Golden State and Dallas) on the second half of a back-to-back, so as usual I will try my best to avoid players on those teams who I feel should be downgraded. There are also plenty of injury situations to monitor in addition to it being the craziest part of the season where we have a blend of teams fighting for playoff contention and seeds, coaches resting players, and some whacky rotations, so pay extra attention to news before lineups lock.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel so I can take advantage of the better pricing — this is especially important with pricing becoming more dynamic on each site. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder, $12,700
Westbrook and the Thunder head to Memphis as 1.5-point road dogs to take on the Grizzlies tonight in game with a 202-point total. We get a $900 discount on DK and we get to take advantage of all the bonuses and lose a half point less per turnover. We are about to witness history as he needs just one triple-double to break Oscar Robertson’s NBA record and I think he gets it over with tonight. He’s also trying hard to win this season’s MVP award, so take advantage of his stat padding ways.
This is a tough matchup, as the Grizzlies currently rank 6th in DVP vs. the point guard position, but Westbrook is matchup proof. He made very quick work of the Bucks great defense against guards. He already went for 82.75 fantasy points against a full Grizzlies squad on February 3rd. Lock him in and enjoy the show!
Shooting Guard
Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets, $5,600
The Nuggets are fighting for their playoff lives and head to Houston as 9-point road dogs in a game with a monster 239-point total. With Will Barton and Jameer Nelson both still questionable and likely to sit, Harris will continue to be counted on for heavy minutes and production. I like that he’s been more aggressive lately with double digit field goal attempts in each of his last five games. He’s in great form, averaging over 31 fantasy points per game over his last four games, and I love playing him in fast paced matchups. He had two very strong performances against Houston last month, highlighted by a 42.5 fantasy point performance in Houston on March 20th.
The matchup is great, as Houston ranks 26th in total fantasy points allowed and 26th in DVP vs. the shooting guard position. It remains to be seen if Houston will limit any of their starters, but either way this will be a fast paced game and the Nuggets cannot afford to mess around. At this point in the season I want my players motivated and playing for something, which is exactly what we get with Gary tonight. He has a high floor and plenty of upside tonight at a very playable price point. In the same price range you can also go with Avery Bradley who’s in my favorite game to target tonight.
Small Forward
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers, $10,200
LeBron heads to Boston as four point road underdogs in a game with a hefty 219-point total. This game should determine who gets the number one seed in the east. I’m pumped for it and sure LeBron will be as well. He’s playing great ball, averaging over 58 fantasy points per game over his last five games and we get a $500 discount on DK. The matchup itself is tough, as the Celtics rank 13th in DVP vs. the small forward position, but Jae Crowder is currently questionable and if he is out LeBron definitely gets a boost.
We’ve also been hit with news that Tristan Thompson will miss the next two games to injury,which gives LeBron a small increase in usage and fantasy point production. I’m not sure he needs it though as he’s matchup proof and put up 67.25 fantasy points with a triple-double in their last meeting in Boston on March 1st. I like Boston to win this game, but think LeBron has a monster game. There’s enough value to fit both he and Westbrook in tonight so that’s what I’ll be doing.
Power Forward
Matt Barnes, Golden State Warriors, $3,400
One of the big pieces of news so far on the day is that Golden State will be resting Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala tonight when they head to Phoenix as 7.5-point favorites in a game with a 223-point total.
Barnes is priced $200 lower on DK and will most certainly take on a large role tonight. I have him projected for around 28 minutes and the matchup is premium, as Phoenix ranks 28th in total fantasy points allowed and allows large fantasy production everywhere. Barnes has already produced in similar spots this year and is the key to fitting in all the studs I love tonight.
Center
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers, $7,400
I’m making an exception here as Love is priced $100 more on DK, but we do get plenty of extra bonus potential. As stated earlier, the news of Tristan Thompson not available also gives Kevin Love an increase in production and he will be relied on more heavily for rebounding than normal. I also love the narrative tonight, as Kevin always seems to get up for Boston ever since Kelly Olynyk took him out in the playoffs 2 years ago. In his two previous meetings with Boston this season he went for 58 and 43 fantasy points. He also looked really good last night against Orlando dropping 54.25 fantasy points in just 28 minutes. I suspect he will see more minutes tonight as this game is as close to playoff basketball as you can get and they will need him more with Thompson out.
It’s also a great matchup, as Boston ranks 24th and 21st in DVP vs. the power forward and center positions, respectively. Boston struggles with stretch fours, where they give up extra threes, twos, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, and assists to the position. I expect him to be chalky with the game log chasers and news of Thompson out, but I think you simply must play him in this spot. He rounds out my starting five and though I did not leave you much salary left per player, there is already enough value on the slate to make it work.