NBA Starting 5: Wednesday, March 15th
Tonight we have a large 10-game slate to attack. We have five teams (Indiana, Detroit, New Orleans, Portland, and Utah) on the second half of a back-to-back, so as usual I will try my best to avoid players on those teams who I feel should be downgraded. There are also plenty of injury situations to monitor, so I envision another mad scramble before lineups lock.
Today, I’m going to continue to discuss how I can quickly glance at two of the Research Tools available to identify good situations for my starting five. First, I always browse the Salary Charts tool to see if I can identify some players that DraftKings has priced lower than FanDuel so I can take advantage of the better pricing — this is especially important with pricing becoming more dynamic on each site. I will then click the Advanced Player Stats tool and focus on their USG%. It’s also nice to glance the peripheral stat percentages available to see if I can expect peripheral points.
Point Guard: Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves, $7,400
Ricky gets a small $200 discount on DK tonight as the Wolves head to Boston as six-point underdogs in a game with a 210-point total. I love playing him on DK as a double-double bonus is close to a lock and a triple-double would not shock me against Boston tonight. Since the All-Star break Rubio is averaging 14.9 points on 57.2 percent true shooting, with 11.8 assists, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.9 steals and averaging over 43.5 fantasy points per game over the period. He’s been much more aggressive since Zach LaVine went down and is consistently producing in all matchups.
Speaking of matchups, the Celtics are a good one, as it’s a slight pace-up spot and the Celtics currently rank 18th in DVP vs. the point guard position. Avery Bradley has improved the Celtics numbers against point guards recently, but I’m really not that worried. The Celtics give up plenty of extra twos, free throws, rebounds, and blocks to the position, so I’m expecting a nice overall game from Rubio, and his price is still too cheap for the consistent production we’ve been seeing.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards, $7,700
Beal get’s a $500 discount on DK tonight and has been tearing it up since the All-Star break, averaging 42.5 fantasy points per game. The Mavs may very well be without Wesley Matthews tonight, one of their best defenders, which should leave Seth Curry trying to guard Beal, so sign me up! Curry should have no shot at containing Beal and though the pace of the game and matchup from a DVP standpoint is concerning, Beal should be able to punish Seth.
The Mavs also give up a decent amount of threes to the shooting guard position, while Beal shoots 45.1% from three at home this year and is averaging 10 three point attempts per game over his last three games. He comes into tonight’s game with 25.94% Usage and I hope people shy away from him in this matchup, because I’m not.
Small Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, $9,600
Giannis get a $800 discount on DK tonight as the Bucks head to L.A. to take on the Clippers as 7.5-point underdogs in a game with a 208.5-point total. I love the matchup, as the Clippers rank 27th in DVP vs. the small forward position and they give up plenty of extra twos, free throws, rebounds, and assists to the position. He also may see some time matching up with Blake Griffin, where the Clippers rank in the bottom five of steals allowed to the power forward position. He’s coming off two poor overall games and is line to bounce back tonight. These two teams recently met on 3/3 and he put up 49.75 fantasy points. I think he could plow through that tonight, and he offers plenty of upside at $9,600.
Power Forward: Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers, $7,900
Griffin has dropped down in price after a bad game against Utah and is at the point where I just have to play him. He gets a $900 discount on DK tonight and still has a healthy 27.95 Usage % on the season. The matchup is also decent, as the Bucks currently rank 19th in DVP vs. the power forward position. If you break it down even further, the Bucks rank towards the bottom of the league in allowing twos, free throws, offensive rebounds, assists, and blocks to the position.
Seems like perfect match for Blake’s game and he did perform decently well when they last met on 3/3 when he put up 41.75 fantasy points. It’s only a matter of time before Griffin gets things rolling, and I’m hoping it’s tonight as it’s the price is just too low for me to pass on.
Center: Nerlens Noel, Dallas Mavericks, $5,500
Noel is probable to play tonight and I’m expecting Wesley Matthews to sit, though he’s questionable at the moment. If that’s the case, I suspect we will see extra minutes for Noel as it he should be needed to bang with Gortat and Mahinmi. He gets a nice $400 discount on DK and is over a fantasy point per minute producer. If I can feel comfortable with an uptick in minutes he should plow through value and could make for an extremely nice play tonight. The matchup is far from ideal, as the Wizards rank 12th in DVP vs. the center position, but Noel has shown significant upside as evidenced by his 46.75 fantasy point performance against Memphis, one of the most difficult matchups for centers.
Washington does rank in the bottom half of the league at DK points allowed to centers this season, so I’m definitely not scared as I can really see him having success on the offensive glass, hopefully racking up points on offensive put backs. I think he makes for a sneaky play at this point in the day.