NBA Starting Five: Monday, November 21st
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
This week I’m going to take a look at one of my favorite stats to look at here in the starting five, which you can find for free in the research tab here at RotoGrinders. That’s the NBA Defense vs Position Cheat Sheet, which you use to help find contrarian plays in nice spots that you might not have been thinking of.
Author’s Note: All prices from DraftKings.
Point Guard – Goran Dragic – $6,600 – Miami Heat
Facing Philadelphia 76ers, who allow 49.82 FPPG (fantasy points per game) to point guards (fifth most in league)
When I opened the slate this morning, the first thing I looked for was to see who Miami was playing. Miami has been a consistent source of value for us from the last week or two, and when I saw Philadelphia as their opponent I jumped for joy. Goran Dragic is a high-usage point guard who didn’t get the usage bump many people expected early in the season because he was on the bench hurt, but since his return he’s been really good. He put up 36 and 31 DK points in his last two since the minutes cap got lifted, and he started and played 35+ minutes. Dragic is one of my favorite plays on the board and the fact he gets this dream matchup against the 76ers makes it even better.
Shooting Guard – Devin Booker – $6,200 – Phoenix Suns
Facing Washington Wizards, who allow 44.19 FPPG to shooting guards (third most in league)
The mere mention of Devin Booker sent chills down my spine (and for anyone that played NBA on Saturday), but he looked okay on the ankle and was chucking up shots like normal. With another two days of rest, he should be close to full strength against a Wizards team that hasn’t defended the shooting guard well all season. The nice part about playing a player like Devin Booker is that he’s not afraid to keep shooting if he misses the first six or seven shots, and in a good matchup he should have no problem reaching and exceeding value.
Small Forward – Otto Porter – Washington Wizards – $6,300
Facing Phoenix Suns, who allow 46.38 fantasy points per game to small forwards (worst in NBA)
This pick goes against everything I believe in for NBA DFS. I want to invest in players when they are at their cheapest and fade them when they are at their highest, and right now Otto Porter is artificially inflated at this $6,300 price tag; but, the matchup in this spot against the Suns is too much to ignore, as they are likely without T.J. Warren, which means it will be a lot more Devin Booker at the SF position. That should be no problem for a big physical player like Porter. It also helps that Markieff Morris is coming into this game questionable and should lead to additional usage for Porter.
Power Forward – Tobias Harris – Detroit Pistons – $6,300
Facing Houston Rockets, who allow 47.84 fantasy points per game to power forwards (eighth worst in NBA)
I don’t roster Tobias Harris enough. I think it’s good to know who what your weaknesses in DFS are and try to correct them. Will you be able to completely avoid bias? Probably not, and that’s what makes the elite of the elite that good. Tobias Harris should have extra rebound equity in this game against Ryan Anderson (which is why Houston isn’t good vs PFs), and this game will be a massive pace-up game for the Pistons who, outside of Reggie Jackson,, have stayed relatively healthy this season. Stan Van Gundy loves to run his starters out for big minutes, so this whole game is worth targeting for DFS purposes.
Center – Al Horford – $6,500 – Boston Celtics
Facing Minnesota Timberwolves, who allow 52.03 fantasy points per game to centers (fifth worst in NBA)
Sometimes when you look at these rankings you get caught off guard, and this is what happened to me today when I saw that the Timberwolves, in spite of the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns, are one of the worst teams defending the center. Part of it could be that Cole Aldrich (the backup) is really bad, but still there is probably more to this than meets the eye, and Al Horford in his first game from a concussion went absolutely bonkers against the Detroit Pistons (who also give up tons of points to centers). With Horford’s price not in the 7-8k range it likely will be at once he gets going, now is the time to get the value in this elite matchup before it goes sky high; the best part is most people will avoid Horford, thinking KAT is a scary matchup.