NBA Starting Five: Thursday, March 10th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at one of my favorite tools the NBA Trending Stats Watch.
We’ll use FanDuel pricing and in particular will look at the “min” and “fpts” tab to see who has seen a recent bump in minutes and fantasy production. I also like to use this tool in conjunction with the Defense vs Position Tool to see which players have the combination of elevated minutes and production to go with a great matchup.
Let’s take a look and see what players the tool points out as optimal plays on this somewhat short Tuesday slate.
Point Guard: Emmanuel Mudiay, $6,000
I’ll start by looking at minutes played over the past week:
Some cheap PGs headline the top of the list, and my favorite of the group would be D.J. Augustin. However, given the lack of high-end superstars available on the slate, I don’t think punting the PG is necessary. Dropping down, we see that D’Angelo Russell, Kyrie Irving and Emmanuel Mudiay all have seen a minutes bump recently. Looking at DvP, each also draws a great matchup so those are my prime three targets at PG today. Now let’s look to at recent production.
My guess is that Kyrie Irving and D’Angelo Russell will be the two most popular options on this slate, and Kyrie is my top option at PG today. However, it’s actually been Mudiay who has seen the biggest production bump. He’s averaging 38 FD PPG over the past week, which is over 6x value. If you can’t quite squeeze in Russell then I’m looking to pair Kyrie with Mudiay. He also provides great exposure to a Denver team that has the top projected point total on the night.
Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, $5,700
Back to the minutes tab:
Looking at the minutes tab, Devin Booker has really rebounded from a tough stretch and has seen his minutes spike.
Booker is averaging almost 38 MPG over the past week, and 33 MPG over the past three weeks, which bodes well against a Denver defense that is 27th in DVP. Gary Harris also stands out as a potential cash game option as he’ s playing close to 40 MPG recently.
Looking at fantasy production, Devin Booker once again dominates the graph. He’s averaging 36 FD PPG over the past week, which is 6x value and 19 above his season average. His shot attempts have really spiked and he’s scored 27 real points in three of his past four games. Outside of Booker, both Jordan Clarkson and Gary Harris look like top options as a second SG for me.
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard, $8,700
SF is by far the weakest position on the slate and the position I’m looking to spend at due to its positional scarcity. Looking at the minutes chart there’s isn’t a lot that stands out.
Some of the Bulls SFs like Dunleavy should see a minutes bump with Jimmy Butler out once again, but they draw the worst matchup in the league against an elite San Antonio defense. Dropping down the list, Kawhi’s minutes are up 2 MPG and he’s playing a solid 34 MPG, which includes a game that he only played 25 due to a blowout. Now onto the “fpts” tab:
Kawhi has turned his slight minute uptick into solid production as he’s averaging 40 FD PPG over the past week. The Bulls have been a poor defensive team all season long, and once again are without their top defender in Jimmy Butler. Kawhi should feast on the likes of Mike Dunleavy, Tony Snell and Nikola Mirotic and is a guy I’m locking in tonight.
Power Forward: Kenneth Faried, $6,800
Unlike the Small Forward position, power forward does have some solid options tonight. Kevin Love and Paul Millsap are top five options, but looking at the minutes tab, LaMarcus Aldridge and Kenneth Faried look like quality options as well.
With Danilo Gallinari out, Kenneth Faried minutes have finally started to somewhat stabilize as Gallinari did spend some time as a stretch PF.
It’s still difficult to fully trust Mike Malone, so Faried is still better suited as a tournament option, but he’s averaging 30 MPG over the past week, which is very encouraging. He’s a guy who has shown big upside in the past when his minutes are secure, so he is back on the GPP radar. Jason Thompson is a potential value option as he started the last game for Luis Scola, who rested last game, but we’ll have to wait on word as to whether he is starting again.
As mentioned Faried has shown big upside when he gets consistent minutes in the past, and that has played out over the past week. He’s averaging 41 FD PPG over the past week, and the Nuggets have the top team total on the day. Kevin Love should be a popular option against a terrible Lakers’ defense, but Faried presents a great GPP pivot at the same price point.
Center: Alex Len, $6,600
Center is fairly straightforward today and three centers are the theme of the day. Let’s start again with the minutes:
The Suns have stated they plan to develop Len down the stretch and the result has been him averaging 34 MPG. His price is on the rise but it hasn’t gone up enough in my opinion. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic has also seen a minutes bump, and the Bulls are riding Pau Gasol hard due to all of their injuries.
Looking at fantasy production, Pau has been absolutely incredible recently as he’s averaged a crazy 60 FD PPG over the past week. He does draw a terrible matchup against the Spurs, but he’s a guy that I would still keep on your GPP radar. Alex Len looks like a guy I want to roster in all formats. He had a poor first half last night, but rebounded with another strong 2nd half. He’s averaging close to 40 FD PPG over the past week, and gets a great matchup with a poor Denver interior. He looks like the top option to me, with Gasol and Jokic lurking as great GPP pivots off of Len’s high ownership.