NBA Trend Blend: Friday, December 9th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Nine
Highest O/U
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder – 225
Lowest O/U
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks – 200.5
Highest Projected Total
Oklahoma City Thunder – 113
Lowest Projected Total
Miami Heat – 98
Dallas Mavericks – 98
Orlando Magic – 98
Largest Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers – 11.5-point home favorites over Miami Heat
Closest Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder – 1.5-point home favorites over Houston Rockets
Point Guard
Favorites
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,000 DK – $10,300 FD) – Okay, Giannis is a SG on FD and a PG on DK, but I can’t wait to write about this guy. But Collin, what about Russ and Harden? Yeah, you don’t really need me to tell you that they’re great plays. That’s as easy as A, B, C. So then, let’s talk about Alphabet (flawless transition). Everyone will be on Harden and Russ tonight, and for good reason, but if you want to be different, I shall present my case for the man whose name I still cannot spell without double-checking. Giannis gets the second best PG DvP matchup in the NBA tonight. Taking a starting PG against the Hawks has been a profitable strategy, and I don’t see anyone on the ATL roster who is capable of slowing him down. Jabari Parker should have to deal with Millsap, and maybe the Hawks will try to throw Thabo on GIannis at times, but let’s be honest, that’s not happening. Alphabet will be the Bucks player in the best spot to succeed, and Vegas has Milwaukee as four point home favorites with a healthy team total of 104. Atlanta has also snuck inside of the top ten in pace (shockingly), and thus will present Giannis with an up-tempo matchup in which he should be able to smash. He brings a similar ceiling as Russ and Harden, but for about 1.5k-3k cheaper.
Terry Rozier ($3,800 DK – $4,200 FD) – Isaiah Thomas is Out once again, and while Rozier won’t be starting, he will still be a main beneficiary of that news. In his last game (with Thomas Out), Rozier played 26 minutes and posted this line – 13 FGAs, 16 real points, five boards, two assists, one steal, four free throw attempts and zero turnovers. When he gets minutes, he’s been able to produce quite consistently. With the studs on the slate, we need some value. Rozier represents one of my favorite values on the board tonight. You may be surprised to hear that the Raptors actually represent one of the top ten most favorable DvP matchups for opposing PGs. Toronto has also scuffled on the defensive end lately as they rank 20th in DRtg/A. Toronto is giving up a ton of three pointers to opposing guards as well, and Rozier likes to let it fly from downtown (four 3PAs last game). All in all, this is a fantastic value in a great spot. Even with his price climbing from last game, Rozier is still in line to smash value.
Others worth mentioning
Russell Westbrook
James Harden – DK
Eric Bledsoe
Deron Williams
Brandon Jennings – if we get early news on Rose
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Devin Booker ($5,900 DK/FD) – Booker was something of a fantasy darling when the season began, but he failed to produce the big games with regularity. Because of the vast swings in performance, Booker is something of an afterthought of late, but he deserves serious consideration tonight. Booker gets a dream matchup against the Lakers tonight. The Lakers currently sit at 1.5-point favorites in a game that features the second highest O/U of the slate. LA ranks dead last in SG DvP and is among the worst in the league in 3PM allowed to SG’s, assists allowed to SG’s and steals allowed to SG’s. Booker is regularly seeing 30-36 minutes and he should have no trouble meeting value tonight. Both teams play at a top eight pace, and considering the Lakers struggles in giving up peripheral statistics to opposing guards, I want a piece of Booker in this spot.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Lou Williams
Victor Oladipo
Marcus Smart – DK
Wesley Matthews
Norman Powell
Small Forward
Favorites
Rudy Gay ($6,700 DK – $7,200 FD) – Gay is one of my favorite SFs to roster for a few reasons. He always seems to go under owned, and he consistently meets 5x value. Many don’t like to roster Gay because of the presence of Boogie, but make no mistake – Gay is a massive part of this offense as well. In fact, Rudy owns an excellent USG of 24.3, which is higher than guys like Kristaps Porzingis, Harrison Barnes, Julius Randle, Nicolas Batum and other F options that are bound to get more attention. Gay also contributes in peripheral categories as he averages 6.3 boards and 1.5 steals per game. The Knicks rank 22nd in SF DvP and 26th in DRtg/A. Both these teams play at an average pace, which should have little to no impact on this game. Overall, Gay seems like a value on this slate, and I don’t mind taking him where others might look elsewhere.
Sam Dekker ($3,800 DK – $3,900 FD) – Let me preface this by saying that Dekker is a GPP play only. The floor is scary low (10 FPTS) but the ceiling is strong (30 FPTS). I’m not sure if I’ll end up on him or not, but he is one of the early value plays that I’m attracted to. In his last five games, Dekker has exceeded 23 minutes four times and has topped 20 FPTS in all four of those games. He’s been taking plenty of shots in those minutes as well. He’s been playing alongside Trevor Ariza at times this season with Ariza moving to the four, and this could be another matchup in which that is the case. OKC goes small quite often at the three and four. The Thunder rank 20th in SF DvP, and if Dekker sees 23 plus minutes, I think he’ll get you at least 20 FPTS in this spot. I especially don’t mind taking a flyer on him on FD where you have to take two SFs. I also like Brandon Ingram in his spot, though he doesn’t offer quite the same discount. His minutes are much more secure, however.
Others worth mentioning
LeBron James
Jae Crowder
Marcus Smart – DK
Trevor Ariza
Harrison Barnes
Brandon Ingram
Power Forward
Favorites
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700 DK – $7,400 FD) – Kristaps represents a decent value on FD and is certainly in play on DK as well. On the season, the Kings rank 27th in PF DvP and 18th in DRtg/A. No team in the NBA allows more rebounds and assists to opposing PFs, and Porzingis is more than capable of racking up boards in a hurry, though assists aren’t a big part of his game. Even so, this game sets up extremely well for KP. This game is projected to stay competitive, and Porzingis should get plenty of run. He’s averaging a somewhat disappointing 7.5 boards per game, but I expect him to get into double digit rebounds tonight given the Kings rebounding struggles. Kristaps brings a high floor and a high ceiling into this matchup tonight.
Dwight Powell ($4,700 DK – $4,000 FD) – Obviously this is a more attractive play on FD, but Powell is worth the price on DK as well. The Mavericks have recognized that our boy Dwight is deserving of more run, and he’s been getting it lately. In fact, Powell has seen 24 or more minutes in each of his last four games and has no fewer than 20 FPTS in all of those games. Powell should be in line for 25-30 minutes tonight, and he’ll be facing a very susceptible front count in the Pacers. Powell will likely see minutes at the four and the five, and Indiana ranks bottom ten in both in terms of DvP. The Pacers also rank 19th in DRtg/A and are dead last in rebounding differential. Powell is a sneaky bet for a low owned double-double tonight, and I think he’ll pay of his salary handsomely tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Julius Randle
Ryan Anderson
Josh McRoberts
Center
Favorites
Tyson Chandler ($4,400 DK – $4,900 FD) – Chandler is getting back in a groove after missing several games, and he should be able to continue that tonight. The Lakers come in ranked 23rd in C DvP and 27th in DRtg/A. While Chandler doesn’t bring in the USG of an elite starting center, he consistently racks up double-digit rebounds. Chandler is another cheap double-double option tonight, and is also a strong salary saver. In this same matchup earlier this season, Chandler met the 6x multiple on his salary and he is cheaper tonight. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him do it again.
Bismack Biyombo ($4,300 DK – $4,400 FD) – If you couldn’t tell, I’m probably going to punt the C position tonight. Biyombo offers another good option on the cheap end. For starters, Biyombo has seen at least 26 minutes in eight straight games. Tonight, Bismack gets a good matchup against the Hornets, who rank 21st in C DvP and are well below average in rebounding differential. Charlotte also gives up the fourth most rebounds to the center position specifically, as well as an above average amount of blocks and steals. Bismack flashed 35-40 FPTS upside just two games ago, and while we can’t realistically expect that tonight, we can certainly anticipate 5-7x.
Others worth mentioning
DeMarcus Cousins
Hassan Whiteside
Karl Anthony-Towns
Andre Drummond
Dwight Howard
Salah Mejri
Tendencies To Exploit
Today is a simple bit – use the RG app and use twitter. There are a number of helpful apps that update lineup information as lock approaches, but nothing competes with our RG app and Twitter. Do yourself a favor and download the RotoGrinders app, which will update news for you. As lock approaches, take a look at the app and at twitter so you can make sure you’re able to adjust. Stay flexible in your lineup construction to allow for movement as news breaks.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win!