NBA Trend Blend: Monday, November 21st
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Nine
Highest O/U
Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers – 220
Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards – 219
Lowest O/U
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 116.5
Washington Wizards – 113.5
Lowest Projected Total
Dallas Mavericks – 82
Memphis Grizzlies – 95
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors: 13-point road favorites over Indiana Pacers
Closest Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics: 2-point spread
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons: 1-point spread
Quick thoughts about the slate
This is a tricky slate to find options in our usual way. Eight of the ten best teams in DRtg/A are playing tonight and eight of the ten slowest pace teams are also playing tonight (and it’s not a straightforward overlap of the same eight teams). We’re going to have to settle for good spots as opposed to “elite” spots, since the elite spots aren’t really evident this evening. Let’s get to it.
Point Guard
Favorites
John Wall ($9,000 DK – $9,200 FD) – Wall is firmly in play tonight as his Wizards host the Suns in the second highest O/U game of the night. The Wizards don’t play tomorrow, so Wall should be set for 34 minutes or so this evening. The Suns currently rank as the fourth best PG DvP matchup and they play at the NBA’s fastest pace. Phoenix also ranks 23rd in DRtg/A. Vegas projects Washington to win this game by eight, which means that there is some blowout factor. If this game stays remotely close, Wall will have a great chance to meet and exceed value.
Goran Dragic ($6,600 DK – $6,900 FD) – On this slate, we’re going to have to dig a bit deeper to find standout plays, and Dragic is jumping out as one of the top PG options available to us tonight. For starters, this game is going to be played in Philadelphia, which is why the spread is listed at 4.5. This is expected to stay a closely contested game, and Dragic should get some great run here. The 76ers rank 18th in DRtg/A and present the fifth best PG DvP matchup available on the slate. The 76ers don’t play at a torrid pace, but they do play considerably faster than the Heat, which is always a plus when choosing guards. Dragic has made a successful return from injury in his last two games by putting up over 30 FPTS in both while also playing 35 plus minutes in both. Interestingly, the 76ers are allowing the most assists per game to the PG position, and pairing Dragic with a certain Miami big man might be an interesting way to approach this one.
Others worth mentioning
Stephen Curry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Chris Paul
Isaiah Thomas
Jeff Teague
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Devin Booker ($6,200 DK – $6,000 FD) – Booker is an interesting play tonight for a few reasons. For starters, his recent struggles (injury related) will likely drive down his ownership a bit tonight. He also finds himself in an extremely favorable matchup against Bradley Beal and the Wizards. Washinton ranks as the fifth best SG DvP matchup in the NBA and as a team, they rank 25th in DRtg/A. Washinton is a pace down opponent for the Suns, but so is every single team in the NBA. This game will have plenty of pace and loads of opportunities for Booker to rack up FPTS. Make sure that Booker is healthy and starting before locking him in, but he needs to be considered.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
Bradley Beal
Monta Ellis
Jonathan Gibson
Small Forward
Favorites
Otto Porter ($6,300 DK – $6,200 FD) – You might be noticing a trend in that I want some pieces of this Wizards v Suns game tonight. Indeed I do. Otto represents yet another strong option from this matchup. The Suns rank dead last in SF DvP and (as mentioned) first in team pace. This matchup figures to be more favorable if T.J. Warren is healthy, as P.J. Tucker is a better defender. Still, given the Vegas projected total and the Washington team total, this is an excellent spot for Porter either way. Otto does take on a lesser offensive role when Beal and Wall are both starting, but he’s been doing plenty in peripheral statistics to stay fantasy relevant. Both of these teams are in the bottom eight in DRtg/A, and we should see plenty of real life points being scored on both ends. Otto is a strong bet to reach/exceed value tonight.
Glenn Robinson III ($3,700 DK – $3,500 FD) – We always want value, and with Paul George ruled put for tonight’s clash against the Warriors, GRIII is a fine option (it’s like RGIII with the R and the G flipped, because I’m so clever…). Yesterday, GRIII played 45 minutes (including all five OT minutes) and he produced 10x production on his salary with 16 points, 11 rebounds and two assists. Robinson showed a fearless approach in shooting from beyond the arc as well. The Pacers are going to need to keep up with the Warriors in this game, and GRIII is going to get plenty of run once again. The Warriors are exactly average in SF DvP, but they do rank 23rd in DRtg/A. Both teams play at a quick pace. Considering the savings we get and the projected minutes/production, Robinson needs to be considered tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Kevin Durant
Kawhi Leonard
James Johnson
Power Forward
Favorites
Blake Griffin ($8,500 DK – $9,200 FD) – I’m a sucker for Blake Griffin. Blake sports the highest USG rate among PF’s at 27.28, and while this matchup is less than ideal, the Raptors don’t have anyone with the athletic/size combo to contain Blake. The Raptors rank 16th in DRtg/A, and the Clippers are projected to score right at their season average of 108-109 points in this game. The spread is a bit concerning here (8.5), but if this game can stay competitive, Blake will be producing long into the fourth. There are few floors safer than Griffin on any slate. Even in the Clippers blowout wins this season, he finds a way to produce.
Jabari Parker ($6,400 DK – $6,700 FD) – The Bucks are projected to score above their season average tonight, and Parker has been on fire of late. The Magic are average in DRtg/A and are below average in pace. Serge Ibaka is still a decent defender, but the Magic rank as the 16th best PF DvP matchup, which neither excites me or worries me. What does encourage me is the expected close nature of this game and a USG rate of over 25 (second highest among all starting PF’s in the NBA). Parker is still affordable across the industry and he should get plenty of opportunities to get it done tonight, even in a less than perfect spot.
Others worth mentioning
Draymond Green
JaMychal Green
Center
Favorites
Al Horford ($6,500 DK – $7,000 FD) – Horford made a strong return from his concussion in his last game out. Most encouragingly, he played a season high 34 minutes. Horford stuffed the stat sheet in that outing, and will look to do more of the same tonight agaist the ‘Wolves. Minnesota grades out as the fourth best C DvP matchup in the NBA, and 29th in DRtg/A. Vegas expects this game to be extremely close (as the spread has dropped from two to one since I started writing this article). Horford may see a dip in rebounding production tonight, but I think he’ll see all the minutes he can handle as the Celtics will need his big body down low agaist the likes of KAT and Dieng. Horford comes at a nice discount, and I’ll be looking to fit him into my lineup if possible.
Hassan Whiteside ($9,300 DK – $9,100 FD) Whiteside is seeing his price climb, and he is now more expensive than he has been all season, but the cost is warranted. The 76ers are below average in DRtg/A, they’re a pace up matchup for Miami, and they are a top eight C DvP matchup. Whiteside has been a monster lately as he has produced 47 or more FPTS in his last four games on both FD and DK. Philadelphia doesn’t have anyone who can contain him, and I expect another big outing from the big fella tonight. Vegas likes this game to stay competitive, which should give Whiteside extended minutes as well. If you do worry about a blowout, just remember that he put up a 50 burger against the Bucks in 29 minutes last week.
Others worth mentioning
Andre Drummond
Nikola Vucevic
Alan Williams
John Henson
Tendencies To Exploit
Dig deep today. This is a day when a more researched approach can pay big dividends. There are a number of studs on the slate who aren’t in the best of spots. While they can still produce, dig a bit deeper to find the best plays. Maybe you find that the best plays are those studs, but dig deeper beyond one article or one measurement and find the best plays. The edge is there to be taken!
Give RotoGrinders and me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.