NBA Trend Blend: Monday, November 7th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Seven
Highest O/U
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors – 222.5
Lowest O/U
Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 119.75
Washington Wizards – 108.75
Lowest Projected Total
Philadelphia 76ers – 92.25
Detroit Pistons – 93.5
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors – 17-point home favorites over New Orleans Pelicans
Closest Spread
Washington Wizards – 1.5-point home favorites over Houston Rockets
Point Guard
Favorites
John Wall ($8,800 DK – $9,200 FD) – The Houston Rockets will continue to be a theme in this article. So long as their games are projected to be close (as is the case tonight), there will be goodness to be found both in the Rockets and in their opposition. Tonight, John Wall returns from resting in the second half of a back to back over the weekend, and should be all systems go in this matchup. In terms of DRtg/A, Houston (unsurprisingly) ranks dead last. James Harden is a prolific scorer (and is also largely in play tonight), but isn’t known for his defense. The Rockets are surprisingly in the middle of the pack in terms of pace, while Washington prefers to play a bit more up-tempo. Expect this game to be slightly higher in tempo with a back and forth score line. Wall has one of the safest floors on the slate, with plenty of upside as well. I’m locking him into my cash game lineup and I don’t mind him one bit in GPP either, though ownership will likely be up there.
Kemba Walker ($7,400 DK – $7,800 FD) – So far on the young season, the Pacers rank 27th in DRtg/A and are in the top eight in pace. While the Hornets prefer to play at a slower pace, the Pacers (it’s only fitting) will make for an up-tempo game by Charlotte’s standard, which means more possessions and opportunity for the Hornets. Kemba has long had fairly extreme home/road splits, and I love taking him in competitive home games, especially that project to play at a quicker tempo. Among PG’s only Westbrook, Wall and Harden have a higher usage than Kemba’s (33.52). There’s plenty to like in this spot.
Others worth mentioning
Goran Dragic
Russell Westbrook
Elfrid Payton
Langston Galloway
Tyler Johnson
Shooting Guard
Favorites
James Harden ($11,700 DK – $11,800 FD) – Look, shooting guard is UGLY tonight. There are a number of half-decent options in play (Wade, Fournier, Beal, KCP), but none come close to the floor/ceiling combo that Harden brings. Both the Rockets and Wizards rank bottom 10 in DRtg/A so far this season, and while John Wall is a solid defender, no one can contain Harden, especially in an up-tempo game like this (both teams rank in the top half in pace). Vegas projects both teams at over 107 points, with a very close spread. As you know, I like targeting players in high total games that also feature close spreads. Harden has a low DK FPTS of 46.8, and I expect him to at least reach value tonight in what should be a back and forth affair.
Others worth mentioning
Evan Fournier
Tyler Johnson – DK
Bradley Beal
Small Forward
Favorites
Kevin Durant (9,900 DK – 9,800 FD) – Really, another super star to pay up for? Sorry, I’m not sorry. I’m breaking down the best plays based on my research and a combination of statistics and trends. Logically, I know that we probably can’t fit all of these guys into our lineups, but I do hope to mix in enough value that you can pick and choose your favorites based on the information in this article and your own thoughts. Ok, so why KD? Somehow, his price is dropping, which is great news for us. The Pelicans are an average team in DRtg/A, but they rank fourth in pace and and 25th in SF DvP. We like all of that! Furthermore, the Pelicans continue to be the worst rebounding team in the NBA. In their previous meeting, KD collected 17 rebounds to help pad his stat line. I’m not anticipating 17 rebounds, but double digits are a likely outcome. Lastly, many expected KD’s usage to take a hit in teaming up with Curry, Klay and Dray, but his usage remains elite at 28.82 (second highest among all starting SF’s behind only Gordon Hayward who has only played in one game).
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (5,400 DK – 5,600 FD) – Some value! MKG gets an elite DvP matchup as the Pacers currently rank 28th in SF DvP. We’ve already addressed the Pacers horrendous defensive start overall as they rank 27th in DRtg/A. Paul George is certainly a capable defender (though he may guard Batum at times), so we should take the DvP ranking with a grain of salt. However, MKG is stuffing the stat sheet in a variety of ways including double-digit rebounds in three of five games along with a plethora of steals and blocks. He has met or exceeded value in three of five games thus far, and hasn’t had to do so via scoring actual points. With this game projected closely and with the third highest point total on the slate, I like MKG to produce for us here.
Others worth mentioning
Solomon Hill – minutes should be there with Lance Stephenson out of the picture.
Power Forward
Favorites
Markieff Morris ($5,900 DK – $5,800 FD) – Here’s the bad news – Kieff’s shot isn’t falling. In his last three games, he’s shooting a combined total of 12-36. For those who struggle with math, that is 33.3%. Not too good. The good news is that Kieff is contributing across the board, and he’s taking the shots. Coach Scott Brooks has kept Morris in the starting unit, but has given him more run with the second unit in order to provide a strong scoring option. All of this leads me to believe that Kieff will continue to put up plenty of shots and get more than enough usage to meet value. Even with his inefficiencies, he’s still be crushing value lately. If his shot starts dropping, he could win you all the money. For the sake of the article, the Rockets rank dead last in DRtg/a, and 26th in PF DvP. Fire him up.
Taj Gibson ($5,700 DK – $5,600 FD) – The Chicago Bulls currently rank as the best rebounding team in the NBA, while the Orlando Magic rank 20th in rebounding differential. Taj is a monster on the glass as he’s collected eight or more rebounds in five of six games this season. The Magic represent an average DvP matchup for Taj at PF, but he may see some minutes at C tonight as well, where the Magic rank dead last in DvP. Orlando is eighth worst as a team in DRtg/A. Neither team play at a quick pace, but the Magic have struggled in offensive efficiency lately, which should lead to plenty of rebound opportunities for Taj. He’s not likely to go off for 40 fantasy points, but he has a great shot at 30-35 FPTS in this spot tonight, which is more than enough to meet value.
Others worth mentioning
Anthony Davis
Enes Kanter – FD
Center
Favorites
Enes Kanter DK $4,900 – Steven Adams $5,200 FD – There are reasons to like both plays in this game, though the site position eligibility makes things a bit tricky for us. Somewhat surprisingly, the Miami Heat are one of the ten worst rebounding teams in the NBA thus far, while OKC is in the top three. I love to take Centers who have a good matchup when it comes to rebounds, as they are a great way to boost a stat line. Adams has four games (out of six) with eight or more boards, and should be able to work his way to meeting value in this average DvP spot. Both teams excel on the defensive end, but that doesn’t worry me as much with the Center position, as so much of their production comes on rebounding. I like Kanter in this spot because of his elite usage rate with the second unit. Kanter will have the better matchup, as he won’t see Whiteside as frequently as Adams will. On the season, Kanter owns a USG rate of 27.42 and is also a monster on the glass. The minutes are always a concern with Kanter, but in a close game like this, I think he’ll have ample opportunities to collect points and rebounds, and ultimately I expect both guys to meet value tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Hassan Whiteside
Marcin Gortat
Bismack Biyombo
Tendencies To Exploit
As we addressed in the Kevin Durant segment of this article, there are several superstars in elite spots today. Many DFS players focus on name alone and don’t look closely at matchup, pace and defensive efficiency. Do yourself a favor and use the tools in this article and on this website to pinpoint your favorite studs to build around. While some will only focus on name and status, take the extra time (which you’re already doing by reading this) and dig a little deeper to build the best lineup possible. Good luck tonight, grinders!
Give me and RotoGrinders a shoutout on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.