NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, December 21st
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Eight
Highest O/U
Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns – 226.5
Lowest O/U
Memphis Grizzlies @ Detroit Pistons – 185.5
Highest Projected Total
Houston Rockets – 116.5
Lowest Projected Total
Memphis Grizzlies – 89
Largest Spread
Detroit Pistons – 7-point home favorites over Memphis Grizzlies
Closest Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder – 2.5-point road favorites over New Orleans Pelicans
Quick Thoughts
I decided that today would be a good day to try something a bit different. Ordinarily, I’ll write up one or two plays that I specifically like at each position, while mentioning others that I see as strong plays, but not going into detail on them. Today, I’ve provided my favorite four or five plays at each position along with their matchup in terms of our trends (DvP, pace and DRtg/A).
You’ll notice a lot of plays against Portland and Phoenix, as both teams struggle mightily on the defensive end. You’ll also notice that we are attacking certain backcourts such as the Atlanta Hawks, who are stout defensively, but struggle to contain guards.
You’ll notice that certain plays don’t fit all of the criteria (some have sub par DvP matchups or otherwise), but they are in play because of various other stats such as rebounding differential (Rudy Gobert), limited options at the position (Anthony Davis) and peripheral stats allowed (Deron Williams).
These plays listed aren’t meant to be the only options that you should consider, but they are intended to get you pointed in the right direction as to who the best plays on the board are at each position based on a variety of trends, rotations, injuries and other statistics. As always, feel free to comment below with thoughts and questions. Thanks for reading!
Point Guard
Favorites
Ricky Rubio versus Atlanta Hawks – 29th in PG DvP – 11th fastest pace – 11th in DRtg/A
Russell Westbrook versus New Orleans Pelicans – 27th in PG DvP – sixth fastest pace – 13th in DRtg/A
Patrick Beverley versus Phoenix Suns – 26th in PG DvP – second fastest pace – 24th in DRtg/A
Jrue Holiday versus Oklahoma City Thunder – 24th in PG DvP – fourth fastest pace – seventh in DRtg/A
Deron Williams versus Portland Trail Blazers – ninth in PG DvP – eighth fastest pace – 30th in DRtg/A
Eric Bledsoe versus Houston Rockets – fifth in PG DvP – tenth fastest pace – 14th in DRtg/A
Shooting Guard
Favorites
James Harden versus Phoenix Suns – 15th in SG DvP – second fastest pace – 24th in DRtg/A
Zach Lavine versus Atlanta Hawks – 24th in SG DvP – 11th fastest pace – 11th in DRtg/A
Devin Booker versus Houston Rockets – 21st in SG DvP – tenth fastest pace – 14th in DRtg/A
Seth Curry versus Portland Trail Blazers – 23rd in SG DvP – eighth fastest pace – 30th in DRtg/A
Small Forward
Favorites
LeBron James (if he plays) versus Milwaukee Bucks – 24th in SF DvP – 17th fastest pace – tenth in DRtg/A
Gordon Hayward versus Sacramento Kings – 19th in SF DvP – 18th fastest pace – 21st in DRtg/A
Trevor Ariza versus Phoenix Suns – 28th in SF DvP – second fastest pace – 24th in DRtg/A
Kent Bazemore versus Minnesota Timberwolves – 16th in SF DvP – 20th fastest pace – 28th in DRtg/A
Harrison Barnes versus Portland Trail Blazers – 27th in SF DvP – eighth fastest pace – 30th in DRtg/A
Power Forward
Favorites
Dwight Powell versus Portland Trail Blazers – 30th in PF DvP – eighth fastest pace – 30th in DRtg/A
Montrezl Harrell versus Phoenix Suns – 25th in PF DvP – second fastest pace – 24th in DRtg/A
Anthony Davis versus Oklahoma City Thunder – 14th in PF DvP – fourth fastest pace – seventh in DRtg/A
Kevin Love versus Milwaukee Bucks (if healthy) – 16th in PF DvP – 17th fastest pace – tenth in DRtg/A
Center
Favorites
Karl Anthony-Towns versus Atlanta Hawks (especially if Dwight Howard is Out) – fourth in C DvP – 11th fastest pace – 11th in DRtg/A
Marcin Gortat versus Chicago Bulls – 16th in C DvP – 26th fastest pace – eighth in DRtg/A
Rudy Gobert versus Sacramento Kings – fifth in C DvP – 18th fastest pace – 21st in DRtg/A
Robin Lopez versus Washington Wizards – 22nd in C DvP – 15th fastest pace – 23rd in DRtg/A
Tristan Thompson versus Milwaukee Bucks – 14th in C DvP – 17th fastest pace – tenth in DRtg/A
Tendencies To Exploit
Tonight is an odd night where every game is projected to stay competitive. As of now, the Pistons are the largest favorite on the board, but only by seven points. Still, it’s wise to look to the games with high O/U’s for your cash game plays. Don’t rule out the lower game totals, as they are projected to stay competitive as well, particularly in tournaments.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.