NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, November 30th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
10
Highest O/U
Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trail Blazers – 214.5
Lowest O/U
San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks – 190
Highest Projected Total
Chicago Bulls – 110.5
Portland Trail Blazers – 110.5
Lowest Projected Total
Dallas Mavericks – 90.75
Largest Spread
Toronto Raptors: 12-point favorites over Memphis Grizzlies
Closest Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves: 3.5-point favorites over New York Knicks
Point Guard
Favorites
John Wall ($9,300 DK – $9,200 FD) – One theme that you may have picked up on is the fact that we want to consider PGs facing off against Russell Westbrook. The Thunder rank 28th in PG DvP, which is extremely attractive for DFS purposes. John Wall possesses the talent to absolutely go off at any point, and this is a prime spot to see that happen. While OKC does rank in the top 10 in DRtg/A, they play at a top five pace as well, which also bodes well for opposing guards. The game total from Vegas sits at 212.5, and the spread is just six points. There should be plenty of goodness to be had here, and Wall needs to be considered for your lineups tonight.
Goran Dragic ($6,800 DK/FD) – The Nuggets are allowing the second most FPTS/game to opposing PGs. Dragic is coming off of a massive performance against Boston two nights ago, and finds himself in an even more attractive position tonight. The Nuggets are perfectly average in DRtg/a, but are a top three team in pace. As mentioned, pace has a positive impact on guards more than any other position. The Nuggets are six point home favorites in this game, which implies that the game should remain competitive until the end. Dragic is affordable across the industry, and looks like a great bet to meet value tonight.
Others worth mentioning
Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Jeff Teague
Andrew Harrison or Wade Baldwin
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Zach LaVine ($6,300 DK – $6,200 FD) – LaVine has typically been a scoring dependent player, and will likely stay that way. However, LaVine racked up eight rebounds and eight assists in his last game. We really shouldn’t expect that again, but LaVine gets a premier SG matchup tonight against the Knicks and their 26th ranked SG DvP ranking. The Knicks are also 25th in DRtg/A and they play at a slightly faster pace than the Timberwolves. LaVine has also seen a large uptick in USG in the last week, as he has gone from a USG rate of 21 to around 26. He has 17 or more FGAs in three of his last five games, and if he sees similar usage tonight, he should be in line for another big performance in a game that Vegas projects to be the closest of the slate. The Knicks also allow the second most 3PM to the SG position at over 3.1 per game and the third most rebounds per game to SGs at 6.7 per game.
Others worth mentioning
C.J. McCollum
Bradley Beal
Lou Williams
Small Forward
Favorites
Rudy Gay ($6,900 DK – $7,200 FD) – Gay once again finds himself in a great spot tonight. The Kings visit the 76ers in a game that Vegas projects to be narrow Kings victory. Philadelphia represents the best SF matchup in the NBA as they allow over 46 FPTS per 48 minutes. The 76ers also rank in the bottom seven in DRtg/a and in the top ten in pace. Everything sets up beautifully for Gay in this spot, and he should be able to take advantage. If this game stays close as Vegas is implying, Gay should have no trouble meeting value. Philadelphia is also allowing the most rebounds to the SF position at over 10 per game.
Maurice Harkless ($5,400 DK – $5,000 FD) – If you want to spend down at the position, Mo Harkless stands out as a very strong play. For starters, this game features the highest O/U of the slate, and should have a number of strong options. Most of the playable options in this game are pricier, but Mo offers a nice discount for exposure to this game and at the SF position. The Pacers represent the sixth best SF matchup in terms of DvP and they will also be without Paul George tonight, which only enhances the spot for Harkless. Furthermore, the Pacers play at the seventh fastest pace in the NBA, and are average in DRtg/A. Harkless is shooting the ball extremely well, but is also racking up large amounts of rebounds and steals. He should be able to crush value for you in this spot tonight, especially if the game stays close.
Others worth mentioning
Jimmy Butler
Wilson Chandler
Andrew Wiggins
Glenn Robinson III
Troy Williams
Power Forward
Favorites
Paul Millsap ($7,500 DK/FD) – Millsap has largely been disappointing this season as he has been up and down in terms of minutes and production. Despite the fluctuation in production, Millsap has performed well in good spots, and finds himself in another great spot tonight. The Hawks visit Phoenix tonight, and have the fourth highest total on the board. The Suns rank eighth in PF Dvp, first in pace and are among the ten worst in DRtg/A. Because of their pace, the Suns are allowing huge peripheral numbers to opposing PFs, including blocks and steals. This is the style of game that suits Millsap’s skill set. Hopefully the Suns can manage to keep this game close, and if they do, Millsap could be in line for a monster outing.
UPDATE: Millsap is currently questionable to play.
Others worth mentioning
Thaddeus Young
Tobias Harris
Center
Favorites
Myles Turner ($6,800 DK – $6,400 FD) and Mason Plumlee (5,800 DK/FD) – My two favorite options at the position happen to be facing off against each other tonight. The Pacers currently represent the second best DvP matchup for opposing big men while the Trail Blazers represent the ninth best matchup. Both of these teams play at a top seven pace. The Pacers have corrected some defensive issues to move their DRtg/A from the bottom five to the middle of the pack, but the Trail Blazers rank dead last in DRtg/A. Both of these teams also rank in the bottom five in rebounding differential, so we should see some extra opportunity for each of the bigs in this game. Ultimately, I like whichever you can fit into your lineups tonight, and I don’t even mind taking both on sites where you are able to fit two Cs. Both of these guys are in spots to smash, and are priced fairly. Plumlee has seen a boost in minutes lately, while Turner has seen a boost in USG when George has missed. Strongly consider rostering one of these guys tonight.
Others worth mentioning
DeMarcus Cousins
Hassan Whiteside
Karl Anthony-Towns
Joel Embiid
Tendencies To Exploit
At each position tonight, there are high priced guys in good spots and there are value plays in strong spots. Roster construction will be a key. For your cash games, choose safety first. For GPPs build the highest upside team you can. That might include going against the grain in certain spots like Center, where there are three or four great high-end options and a handful of middle tier options. For GPPs, worry less about ownership on a ten game slate, and focus on taking the very best plays at each position, and watch the points rack up.
Give and me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.