NBA Trend Blend: Wednesday, November 9th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
11
Highest O/U
Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards – 215
Lowest O/U
Utah Jazz @ Charlotte Hornets – 193.5
Highest Projected Total
Golden State Warriors – 113.5
New York Knicks – 111
Lowest Projected Total
Utah Jazz – 95.75
Dallas Mavericks – 97.25
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors – 16-point home favorites over Dallas Mavericks
Closest Spread
Boston Celtics – 1.5-point road favorites over Washington Wizards
Point Guard
Favorites
Chris Paul ($8,700 DK – $9,400 FD) – Paul is firmly in play on both sites, but particularly on DraftKings where is price is too cheap. The Clippers get a pace up match in this one as the Blazers are currently playing at fourth fastest pace in the NBA. Further enhancing this spot for CP3 is the matchup against Damian Lillard and the Blazers’ bottom ten-ranked DvP against PG’s. The Blazers also struggle as a team in DRtg/A as they are currently ranked 23rd on the young season. The Clippers own one of the highest O/U’s on the night, and Paul should have his fingerprint all over this game. If Lillard and the Blazers can keep this one close (Vegas currently projects a 9.5 point spread), CP3 should crush value and he represents one of my favorite cash plays of the night.
J.J. Barea ($6,700 DK – $5,700 FD) – Again, Barea is in play everywhere in this spot, but is an even better play on FD because of his suppressed price. Barea has surpassed 30 minutes in five of seven games this season, and he has surpassed 30 DK points in all of those games. This Mavs team is banged up, but Barea’s minutes should continue to be reliable even in the second half of a back to back. The one concern here is the potential for a blowout, which makes Barea and the Mavs more of GPP plays for me. The Warriors currently represent a top ten matchup in terms of all of our main trends (DRtg/A, DvP, and pace).
Others worth mentioning
Russell Westbrook
John Wall
Stephen Curry
Derrick Rose
Sergio Rodriguez
Patty Mills (if Tony Parker remains Out)
I’ll Pass
Kemba Walker – Kemba’s price dropped $400 on DK after his 50 point outing last time out, but for $300 less, I’d rather take Barea in cash games. Kemba gets a pace down matchup against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA (Jazz currently rank eighth best in DRtg/A and fourth best in PG DvP). While Kemba historically plays better at home, I’m willing to let others look at the box score from last time out and roster Kemba without taking a closer look at the matchup.
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Avery Bradley ($6,500 DK – $6,900 FD) – Bradley isn’t a sexy name to roster, primarily because of bias from previous seasons. The reality is that during this season (and especially with Jae Crowder Out), Bradley is seeing an increase in USG, which sits at 22.2 (up from 19.74 last season). Not only is the usage increasing, but Bradley has been much more efficient with his shots this season as well. The Celtics have started the season playing at a slower pace than last season, but I have a hard time believing that things will stay that way after the C’s played at a top five pace last season with the same personnel and coaching staff. Bradley also gets a dream DvP matchup with Bradley Beal and co. tonight as the Wizards currently rank 27th in SG DvP. This should be a closely contested game with an uptick in pace, and Bradley should be locked in to 34 plus minutes (which he has met in every game this season). Even at his climbing salary, he’s a strong play.
Others worth mentioning
Evan Fournier
Sean Kilpatrick – FD
Jamal Crawford
Seth Curry
Small Forward
Favorites
Kawhi Leonard ($9,200 DK – $8,800 FD) – Currently, the Spurs have the fourth highest team total on the slate, which bodes extremely well for Kawhi and his 30.86 USG rate. Vegas currently has the Spurs as 8.5 point favorites, which means that there is some marginal blowout concern, so keep that in mind. The Rockets remain dead last in DRtg/A and 25th in SF DvP. The Spurs play at a more deliberate pace, while the Rockets are playing at an average pace. Considering Kawhi’s usage and the implied team total, I love this spot for Kawhi. There’s also a chance that Kawhi is owned lower than he should be tonight due to putting up a dud in his last outing. Recency bias is an enemy of making +EV decisions, so be better than that! Fire up Kawhi in cash and GPP tonight.
Harrison Barnes ($6,900 DK – $5,700 FD) – There is an obvious price discrepancy here, but Barnes is in play on both sites and is an extremely good play on FD. Understand that Dallas is playing in the second half of a back to back and that Barnes has been playing an extremely high number of minutes lately. With the Warriors favored by 16, there is some very real blowout risk here, but there is also some serious upside. Barnes has scored 30 plus real life points in back to back games and has collected eight plus boards in two of his last three, which is helping pad his stat lines. Dallas gets a massive pace up matchup in this spot, and Golden State currently ranks in the bottom 10 in DRtg/A as well. Barnes will have his hands full for much of the night having to deal with KD, but I think he’s worth the risk. One more factor to consider is Narrative Street – Barnes returns to face the team that he began his NBA career with. Barnes was often referred to as the weak link on the Warriors teams of late, and he will be looking to put on a show in front of his old “fans” (in parenthesis because I’m not sure they ever loved him there), his replacement, and former teammates this evening. The low projected team total does concern me, but the usage lessens my concern both with Barnes and Barea.
Others worth mentioning
Paul George
Andrew Wiggins
Otto Porter
Jaylen Brown
Power Forward
Favorites
Blake Griffin ($8,200 DK – $8,500 FD) – Blake absolutely decimated the Blazers on opening night, and he gets an even better matchup this time with Aminu unlikely to play tonight. Griffins price is also $400 less now than it was on opening night. The Clippers have been involved in multiple blowouts lately, and thus Blake hasn’t had to play a full allotment of minutes, which has caused his production and his salary to dip. There is some blowout risk here tonight as well, but there’s also a lot to like. This is the type of pace up game in which Blake legitimately brings triple double upside. Portland plays at the fourth fastest pace and owns the eighth worst DRtg/A. Given the positives in this matchup, I think Blake can crush value, even in 28-30 minutes should a blowout take place. If this game stays close, I think he could win you a GPP tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,200 DK – $6,600 FD) – It appears that the light bulb has flipped on in the sense that the Knicks are finally realizing that Kristaps is their best player. Porzingis’s minutes are up along with his FG attempts and 3pt attempts. Brooklyn currently plays at the ninth fastest pace while ranking 28th in PF DvP. Last season against Brooklyn, KP double doubled twice in three games and posted 18 and eight in his other game with a total of seven blocks and four steals. I expect him to stuff the stat sheet tonight as the Knicks (hopefully) continue to give their big man minutes and opportunities to feast on this poor frontcourt.
Others worth mentioning
Paul Millsap
LaMarcus Aldridge
Gorgui Dieng
Trevor Booker
Center
Favorites
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500 DK – $8,700 FD) – KAT disappointed last night as foul trouble plagued him in the second half, but he gets a prime bounce back spot tonight against the Magic. On the season, the Magic rank dead last in DvP against Center’s and 24th in DRtg/A. Further enhancing this matchup for KAT and the Minnesota frontcourt is the fact that Orlando ranks 25th in rebounding differential, which should open up a few more boards for KAT and increases his double double potential.
Steven Adams ($5,500 DK – $5,100 FD) – Adams is cheap, and is in a better-than-you-think matchup. The Raptors are a solid defensive team, but their Achilles heal is defending big men (26th in C DvP). Jonas Valanciunas is likely to miss this game, which further enhances things for Adams (and Kanter). Vegas projects this game to remain close and competitive, which should boost the minutes floor for Adams as well. He’s not a guy who is likely to win the night for you, but he brings a great FPTS floor with a respectable ceiling, especially in favorable spots like this one.
Others worth mentioning
Andre Drummond
Dwight Howard
Mason Plumlee
Tyler Zeller
Tendencies To Exploit
Overcome your bias tendencies (preaching to the choir)! Injuries and coaching changes impact players from one season to the next. A guy like Avery Bradley may not be as fun to roster as DeMar DeRozan, but we have to look at all of the information, not just names and box scores. Ultimately, we are trying to build the best lineups possible with the highest floor and the highest ceiling. We’re not trying to build lineups with the sexiest names. Keep grinding, and hit me up in the comments section and twitter with any questions or thoughts.
Give RotoGrinders and me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.