2022 New England Patriots Odds, Schedule, & Fantasy Football Team Preview
We are coming off of the most exciting NFL offseason in recent memory. There are plenty of new faces in new places, including quite a few in the AFC East. The Patriots were supposed to be in rebuild mode after Tom Brady left after the 2019 season, but they managed to win seven games in 2020 and managed to make the playoffs in 2021. They didn’t end the season the way they were hoping (losing three of their last four regular season games and getting blown out by the Bills in the playoffs), but it’s tough not to consider 2021 a successful campaign.
Here are the biggest questions facing the Patriots heading into the 2022 season:
- Can Mac Jones turn from a game manager to a game winner?
- Will the loss of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator hurt the offense?
- Did the defense add enough speed to compete with some of the top teams in the league?
We will answer each question along the way and go through the top fantasy options for the Patriots this season.
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2022 New England Patriots Schedule, Lines, and Best Bets
Projected Odds, derived & modified from data originally published by Sean Koerner here.
Win Total and Total Games Favored:
8.5 (-115) / 4 Games Favored (2 Big Favorites / 1 Big Dogs)
The Patriots are currently only favored in four of their 17 games, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They are only a touchdown underdog in one game and in eight of the games where they are underdogs, the spread is a field goal or less. Essentially, the betting market expects the Patriots to be in a lot of close games this season. If they win a good amount of those 50/50 games, they could easily finish the season with a record above .500.
The big question mark is how they are going to fare in the division. The Patriots did beat the Bills in Week 13 of last season, but that was an outlier game where the winds were 30+ MPH and Mac Jones only attempted three passes. The Jets are likely a team that the Patriots can continue to beat and the Dolphins are a true wildcard. With a lot of question marks for two of the other three teams in the division, leaning on the experience of the Patriots could pay dividends.
Favorite Bet: Patriots to Make the Playoffs // +160 on DraftKings
Even though the Patriots play in a difficult division, I like their chances of making the playoffs this season. They aren’t ready to compete with the Bills for a division title, but a wildcard spot is certainly in their range of outcomes. Mac Jones seems very confident heading into his sophomore season, the organization added a couple weapons to the offense in DeVante Parker and Pierre Strong, and the defense has added some speed. At the end of the day, I like betting on Bill Belichick and we are getting generous odds on the Patriots to make the playoffs.
New England Patriots Props
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Favorite Prop: Damien Harris Under 825 Rushing Yards
I’m an eternal optimist, so betting unders on player props isn’t something that I do often (even though this aligns with most casual bettors). However, I am happy to take the under on any prop related to the Patriots backfield. For years and years, the leading back heading into the season has underwhelmed for New England. This is due to a number of factors, but mostly that they like to use a committee at the position and don’t seem to have a strong allegiance to any particular running back.
Harris was very productive at times for the Patriots last season, but he only had 929 rushing yards in 15 games. Injuries are always tough to predict, but taking the under for any starting running back to play 15 games in the NFL is never a bad idea. Even if he does stay healthy, he will be splitting early-down work with Rhamondre Stevenson and fourth-round draft pick, Pierre Strong. We know the passing downs will go to James White, who has excelled in his pass-catching role for many years.
New England Patriots Fantasy Football Projections
Team Rankings and Ratings
Offense Ranks:Rank 12/ Elite Rush / Average Pass/ Rank 18 Points For)
Defense Ranks:Rank 20/ Average Rush / Average pass / Rank 6 Points Allowed)
Opponent Strength – Rushing:5 difficult vs. rush. 5 soft vs. rush.
Opponent Strength – Passing:7 difficult vs. pass. 3 soft vs. pass.
It’s easy to look at offseason moves and expect a team to be better and the Patriots are a great example of this. Despite using Mac Jones as a game manager last season, they finished 12th in total offense. Jones seems more confident heading into the season and could take the biggest leap of all of last year’s rookie quarterbacks. The Patriots brought in DeVante Parker to give him a true WR1, they drafted an offensive lineman in the first round, and they should still have one of the better run games in the league. The loss of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator is a concern, but it sounds like Bill Belichick will take over some of those duties.
The defense could be what makes or breaks New England’s playoff chances this season. They played well for most of last year, but were exposed in the final four regular season games. It didn’t get any better in the playoffs, as the Bills didn’t have to punt a single time on their way to scoring 47 points against the Patriots. As noted earlier, this team has added some speed on the defensive side of the ball. They have always had a knack of getting the most out of their defensive units, so finishing around league average isn’t out of the question.
New England Patriots Top Fantasy Football Plays & Picks
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Mac Jones – Underdog Rank: 152 (ADP 170 / 11.84% ADP Gap)
RB: Damien Harris – Underdog Rank: 85 (ADP 90 / 5.88% ADP Gap)
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson – Underdog Rank: 102 (ADP 113 / 10.78% ADP Gap)
WR: Jakobi Meyers – Underdog Rank: 116 (ADP 131 / 12.93% ADP Gap)
WR: DeVante Parker – Underdog Rank: 122 (ADP 141 / 15.57% ADP Gap)
WR: Kendrick Bourne – Underdog Rank: 222 (ADP 189 – -14.86% ADP Gap)
TE: Hunter Henry – Underdog Rank: 129 (ADP 148 / 14.73% ADP Gap)
*Note: Premium Subscribers can find updated rankings for Underdog Fantasy in the content schedule here.
New Additions of Note: DeVante Parker WR // Pierre Strong RB
Departures of Note: Brandon Bolden RB
The Patriots weren’t a team that we targeted often in fantasy football last season. They were a run-first team that didn’t ask their rookie quarterback to do too much. However, all reports suggest Mac Jones is ready to take on more of a leadership role. He no longer has to worry about his starting position, he will naturally be more comfortable in his second season, he has an elite ground game to keep defenses honest, and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal. From a fantasy perspective, the best case scenario for Jones would be for the defense to struggle. If the Patriots are forced to air it out more, he could be a sneaky sleeper in late rounds of drafts.
While I expect the Patriots to have plenty of success on the ground again this season, the backfield is one to avoid for the risk-averse crowd. For starters, there are four running backs that will be competing for touches — Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, James White, and Pierre Strong. Additionally, they don’t have one back that can be relied on to have a role in the running game and the passing game. Harris and Stevenson will see very few targets, while White will see very few rushing attempts. The strategy of taking the cheapest Patriots running back has worked well in the past and at the moment, that appears to be White.
Similar to the backfield, there are a lot of bodies competing for targets from Jones. DeVante Parker should step in as the WR1, but Jakobi Meyers developed a nice chemistry with Jones last season. Nelson Agholor didn’t live up to the expectations of his big contract last season, but he will continue to be a deep threat in the offense. Kendrick Bourne and rookie Tyquan Thornton will also mix in here and there, but are likely fades unless an injury opens up more playing time. Hunter Henry was a terrific redzone target for Jones in 2021 (nine touchdowns) and Jonnu Smith is hoping to have a better sophomore season with the Patriots. Ultimately, I expect Jones to spread the ball around, which is going to make predicting fantasy production a difficult task each week.
Image Credit: Imagn