NFL Best Ball Theory: Identifying Ripe Opportunities
Last week, I discussed the term “free” as it relates to NFL Best Ball drafting, and why we should never consider any of our late picks as luxury assets that don’t matter. As I mentioned last week, I’ve misapplied this term when describing events surrounding Best Ball ADP development. I say that I’m misapplying the term because I don’t believe anything is free in Best Ball leagues. I’ll dive further into this topic now in Part 2: Identifying Ripe Opportunities.
• Part 1: Every Pick is Sacred
• Part 2: Identifying Ripe Opportunities
• Part 3: Timing the Market
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What is a Ripe Opportunity?
As we near the end of our Best Ball drafts, we must assess the players remaining on the board and identify which have the best probability to break ADP given a logical set of circumstances. These circumstances (with 2016 examples) might include:
• Current starter with very poor sentiment among drafters (Davante Adams)
• Current backup who can seize starting role / heavy volume through their own ability (Spencer Ware)
• Current backup who can assume starting role via ineffectiveness of current starter (Jordan Howard)
• Current backup who can assume starting role via injury to current starter (Dak Prescott)
When measured late picks are combined with logical roster construction and high-floor early picks, they often can elevate teams into the money. Let’s see if we can identify a few opportunities!
Identifying Ripe Opportunities
When drafts move past the 12th Round, and we work to identify high-yield opportunities within the player pool, we should try our best to stay within the bounds of logic. We should not identify Running Backs who will, at best, remain in timeshares should they receive opportunity (ex: Charles Sims). Likewise, we should avoid Wide Receivers who might only see small upgrades in target share with an upgraded opportunity (ex: Taylor Gabriel). These players are ultra low floor in their current situations, and low ceiling should they find themselves with an upgraded opportunity. These players won’t win leagues.
Below, I’ve created a table of players whose current 2-week ADP (July 14 – July 28) slots them firmly in the 13th to 16th Rounds (picks 145 to 180). I’ve highlighted (in blue) the players in this grouping who I feel can destroy their ADP either due to their inherent talent, their attachment to an elite offense, being one step away from a high-volume opportunity, or general poor sentiment despite having a defined producing role in their current offense that can only improve.
We can perform this same exercise for players drafted in the 17th & 18th Rounds (and later, for other formats). Why? The idea is for us to have a short list of players on speed dial for our last few picks that have the ability to push good teams over the top. Drafting players like Cooper Kupp, Marlon Mack, or Evan Engram won’t move the needle much should they fall into opportunity. Focus on players who can leverage heavy, starter-level volume into production. If the player is attached to a good (or even elite) offense, all the better.
Wrapping Up
You may not feel the same way about the players I’ve highlighted, and that’s fine. That’s what makes Best Ball leagues fun and fuels our discussions. The point to take away here is that you should have a gameplan (with similar reasoning) for ADP-breaking players in the last third of drafts. Identify those opportunities now so that when these players are available late in your drafts, you can add league-winning upside with little investment.
If you’d like to reference draft data similar to the RotoGrinders Draft Best Ball ADP page, I recommend checking out similar data from MyFantasyLeague MFL10 drafts as a reasonable “go-by” for your upcoming Best Ball drafts.
Why wait, though? Have a go at Draft’s new Best Ball format armed with your new knowledge today! If you’re new to Draft, be sure to use promo code “GRINDERS” and receive a bonus on your first deposit.