NFL Best Bets for Week 11: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Same old story. We split the picks again. The Titans got there on a garbage time touchdown with less than a minute left. Javonte Williams was booted to the bottom of the depth chart and managed just 1 yard on 1 carry. We were so close to getting them both right for once. Curse you Will Levis!
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-5
- Prop Picks: 5-5
Chicago Bears Under 17.5 Team Total (-135 on Caesars)
Shane Waldron was fired this week. Thomas Brown will take over as offensive coordinator. Carolina struggled on offense with Brown calling plays last season. More importantly, they played extremely slow. Just about the only thing going for Waldron’s offense was pace, as they were 7th in plays per game. I’m expecting Brown to lean on the run game and operate at a much slower pace.
Play calling has been a major sore spot for this offense, but the offensive line injuries haven’t helped. Chicago will be without left guard Teven Jenkins and backup tackle Kiran Amegadjie this week. The O-line situation was so bad in Week 10 that New England’s embattled defense was able to record 9 sacks. The Patriots came into that matchup with just 16 sacks on the season. Only the Browns have allowed more sacks than the Bears this season.
Green Bay’s defense has been solid. They rank 11th in points allowed per game and 12th in yards allowed per game. The Packers have done a decent job at getting pressure. They’re also playing at home and coming off a bye week. They should be equipped to limit Caleb Williams and company.
Najee Harris Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-117 on Caesars)
This is similar to the Williams fade from last week. It’s a terrible matchup, and Harris has several factors working against him.
Harris got beat up in Week 10 against Washington. He went down with an ugly ankle injury and missed the majority of the 4th quarter. He’s back at practice after sitting out on Wednesday, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be limited by the injury.
Jaylen Warren has been eating into Harris’ playing time. He returned from injury in Week 6 and has played at least 37% of the snaps in every game. He had only hit that playing time threshold once heading into this stretch. Warren has now played a season-high 35 snaps in 2 of the last 3 games. Cordarrelle Patterson also returned in Week 10 and grabbed 3 carries. He emerged as a candidate for additional playing time after a big game in Week 3, but he went down with an injury in Week 4. He’s now back in the mix to steal touches.
Baltimore has been extremely tough on running backs. They’re allowing the 2nd-fewest yards per carry and the 2nd-fewest yards per game. Teams are choosing to pass against them, and they’re having plenty of success. The Ravens are seeing the 3rd-fewest running back rushes per game. I’m expecting offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to lean on Russell Wilson and his moon balls instead of trying to run against this unit.
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