NFL Best Bets for Week 14: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Oof. We missed both picks last week. It was a disappointing follow-up to the perfect Week 12. The Jets topped their team total by 1 point. Rhamondre Stevenson had his 2nd-longest run of the season, which carried him over his rushing yards prop. We need to get back to .500 this week for the season.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 6-7
- Prop Picks: 6-7
Atlanta Falcons Under 20.5 Team Total (-130 on Caesars)
The Falcons are a mess right now. They’ve dropped 3 in a row and fallen back into a tie for 1st place in the NFC South. They hold the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, but the Bucs have an easier remaining schedule. The Falcons could slip out of playoff contention if they don’t turn things around soon. Facing Brian Flores and Minnesota’s defense is not the recipe to get this offense back on track.
Kirk Cousins has been awful the past 3 games. He has a 0:6 TD:INT, and his job security is suddenly in doubt with Michael Penix looming. Cousins has been sensitive to pressure since coming back from his Achilles injury, so I assumed he faced a ton of it in this stretch. Nope. Cousins has only been pressured on 23.4% of his dropbacks, which is well below his season-long mark of 28.5% (which is already a low number).
Cousins has unsurprisingly been terrible when pressured in this stretch (8-for-20, 2 INTs), but the numbers when not pressured are much more concerning. Cousins has 4 INTs and a 70.0 passer rating when not pressured the past 3 games. He had 3 INTs and a 107.4 passer rating when not pressured in his first 9 games. Passer rating isn’t a perfect stat, but it has value as a comparison tool. Cousins has fallen off a cliff recently.
The Vikings rank 7th in pressure rate and pressure rate over expectation. When they DON’T get pressure, they get turnovers. Minnesota leads the league in interceptions when not getting pressure. It’s a brutal spot for a Falcons squad that hasn’t cracked 17 points since Week 9.
Travis Etienne Under 2.5 Receptions (-152 on BetRivers)
We’re eating some juice here, but it’s worth it. Etienne has several factors working against him this week.
Mac Jones has handled the majority of the quarterback duties since Week 10. Trevor Lawrence started in Week 13, but he was knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter. With Lawrence under center from Weeks 1-9, the Jaguars had a 16.2% running back target rate. That was the 11th-lowest mark in the league, but it’s gotten much worse. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has a 8.8% running back target rate. Their 8 running back targets are the fewest in the league in this stretch.
Etienne had the backfield mostly to himself the past couple games, but Bigsby returned from injury last week. Etienne still played more snaps, but the split was pretty even (37 to 32). More importantly, Bigsby ran 19 routes to Etienne’s 15. Bigsby had taken over a larger share of the carries prior to his injury, but now he seems to be infringing on Etienne’s pass-catching role. Week 13 was only the 2nd time this season Bigsby had run more routes than Etienne. The only other instance was Week 9, when Etienne was coming off an injury of his own and played limited snaps.
Tennessee has allowed the 5th-fewest targets and 6th-fewest receptions per game to running backs. The Titans are only favored by a field goal, so this game should be competitive. Jacksonville could lean into the ground game instead of letting Jones air it out. When Jones does throw, it likely won’t be to a running back. When he does throw to a running back, it might not be Etienne.
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