NFL Best Bets for Week 8: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We split the picks in Week 7. Cleveland stumbled to another weak offensive performance, no sweat there. Their offensive can only get better with Jameis Winston under center. Michael Pittman ended up getting there on a long catch late in the game. Anthony Richardson struggled again, and Pittman only had 5 targets, so I still feel good about the play.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 4-3
- Prop Picks: 3-4
Carolina Panthers Under 15.5 (-110 on Caesars)
I don’t have much to say about this one. It’s pretty straightforward given the current situation for the Panthers. Andy Dalton and Diontae Johnson have been ruled out. Bryce Young is back under center, and he’ll be facing an elite defense on the road without his top wide receiver. I just can’t see Carolina scoring three times.
Denver is allowing 15.1 points per game, the 3rd-best mark in the league. Their schedule has been pretty easy and it’ll get much tougher after this week, but they get one more cupcake matchup. Carolina is in the bottom 5 in points per game and yards per game. They managed 13 total points in Young’s two starts.
A defensive touchdown would be the best route to losing this one, but Bo Nix has actually done a good job taking care of the ball lately. After tossing 4 interceptions in his first 2 games, Nix has just 1 interception in his last 5 games. I’m expecting Denver to jump out to an early lead and grind out an easy win here.
Christian Kirk Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-113 on FanDuel)
Kirk’s production has been tied to the health of Evan Engram. In Engram’s 3 healthy games, Kirk has 5 catches on 13 targets for 93 receiving yards. He’s tied for 3rd on the team in target share at 16.9%. In the 4 games Engram missed, Kirk posted 20 catches on 29 targets for 227 receiving yards. He ranked 2nd on the team in target share at 20.1%, barely behind Brian Thomas (21%) for the team lead. Kirk’s route participation was up 4% with Engram sidelined.
The matchup is a tough one for Kirk. He’s lined up in the slot for more than 80% of his routes, and Green Bay has been stingy to slot receivers. The Packers rank top 10 in fewest yards per target, yards per route run, and yards per reception against slot targets. They’ve ceded a solid amount of targets to that alignment, but I have concerns about Kirk’s volume.
I’m expecting Kirk to continue seeing minimal opportunities with Engram healthy, and Green Bay has done well limiting slot receivers on a per-target basis.
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