NFL Best Bets for Week 9: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under
NFL Best Bets for this week’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under each week of the NFL season. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We split the picks once again. Carolina did manage a touchdown on their opening drive but floundered the rest of the way. They scored a meaningless touchdown with 18 seconds left to make the performance look a bit more respectable. This offense remains hopeless with Bryce Young under center. Christian Kirk was virtually nonexistent against Green Bay before securing a 33-yard grab to go over his yardage prop. He had just 2 catches on 5 targets.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-3
- Prop Picks: 3-5
Jacksonville Jaguars Under 18.5 Team Total (-105 on Caesars)
I’m trying not to overreact to Philadelphia’s defense in October. They’ve allowed just 12 points per game since their bye in Week 5, but the competition has been lackluster. The Eagles have faced the Browns with Deshaun Watson, the Giants, and the Bengals without Tee Higgins over the past 3 weeks. Most defenses are going to excel with that schedule. Philly might fall back to earth at some point, but they get another sweet matchup this week.
Jacksonville’s passing game got wrecked by injuries in Week 8. All three of their top receivers (Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas, Gabe Davis) were knocked out of the game. Kirk is done for the season with a broken collarbone, Thomas’ timeline has bounced between a few days to a few weeks, and Davis is currently questionable for Sunday. The Jaguars also just traded tackle Cam Robinson to Minnesota. The Eagles have stopped the run all season, but they’ve been excellent against opposing passing games recently. They’re 1st in passing yards per attempt, 1st in passing yards per game, and 1st in sacks over the past 3 weeks.
Trevor Lawrence has typically struggled against pressure, and 2024 has been no different. He has the 3rd-lowest yards per attempt and the 3rd-worst completion percentage over expectation when pressured this season. Lawrence has locked onto Kirk in those situations. Kirk has an 18.7% target share on the season, but it jumps to 29.8% when Lawrence is pressured. No other Jacksonville receiver is above 11%. Lawrence will obviously be without Kirk in this game.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (-113 on FanDuel)
It never feels great fading an exciting player like Harrison, and he finally had a good game last week. He just did it in an unsustainable way, and this is a good time to sell high on him.
Harrison’s usage in Arizona’s offense has been frustrating. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and company haven’t given Harrison many layup targets, opting to rely on him winning on downfield routes. Harrison has a massive 14.9 average depth of target, so it shouldn’t be a surprise he has an underwhelming 53.1% catch rate. It’s just hard to generate reliable production when your targets are so far downfield.
Harrison torched Miami for 111 yards on 6 catches and 7 targets in Week 8. The problem is he still had a massive 19.0 aDOT. It’s great that he reeled in 86% of his targets, we just can’t expect that to happen moving forward.
Chicago has done well against downfield receivers. They’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest targets per route run and the 8th-fewest yards per route run on passes 10+ yards down the field. Harrison would need to be used differently to find consistent success against this defense, and I don’t see that happening.
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