NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 7
Happy Friday, everyone! The autumnal winds of change are swirling with perceptions of NFL teams change as each week comes off of the calendar. Public reaction to a host of topics such as the Rams ability, the defensive prowess of the 49ers, and the strength of the Dallas Cowboys can move the market. A host of props are posted on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Sunday afternoon. Did recent perceptions create opportunities for prop bettors?
Check out our Week 7 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 7.
NFL Betting Picks Week 7 — QB Player Prop for Rams at Falcons
Jared Goff Over/Under 287.5 Passing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
The first potential overreaction I want to take advantage of is the recent perception of the Los Angeles Rams. After losing a couple of games in a row, the Rams were overpowered by the 49ers in what was likely the biggest win for San Francisco in a handful of years. Sam Darnold accrued more passing yards in one throw to Robby Anderson than Jared Goff did throughout an entire game (78 passing yards). The offense was really bad. Goff took sack after sack and the Rams could not get anything going throughout the day.
Well, the 49ers might just be that good. Also, the Falcons are just really, really bad. After being carved up by Deshaun Watson for 426 passing yards in Week 5, the Falcons made Kyler Murray look like an effective NFL passer in Week 6. The rookie completed 72.97% of his passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Murray had yet to finish with a completion percentage above 70% and didn’t get close to 300 passing yards in the previous three weeks.
Jared Goff looked really bad but was pressured all game. The Falcons, as a team, only have five sacks this season. For perspective, the Panthers lead the NFL with 27 sacks. The 49ers sacked Goff four times last week! With this implied game total currently resting at 54.5 points, there should be no surprise when the forward pass is featured prominently in this contest. Prior to the Rams debacle, Goff was coming off of a 395-yard performance against the Seahawks and a 527-yard performance versus the Bucs when the Rams needed to score. The Rams will need to score as Atlanta loves to play in track meets. Give me the over.
My Pick: Over 287.5 Passing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 7 — RB Player Prop for Texans at Colts
Carlos Hyde Over/Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
Last week, Carlos Hyde took advantage of the NFL’s worst-ranked defense in rushing yards allowed when the Texans defeated the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Hyde took 26 rushing attempts for 116 yards and added a touchdown for good measure. This week, Carlos Hyde will not be playing against the Chiefs.
Instead, the Texans travel to Indianapolis to play a Colts’ defense that 4.71 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The strength of the Colts’ defense is the secondary — only allowing Matt Ryan to surpass the 300-yard mark this season. Otherwise, the Colts suffocated various other quarterbacks with the Chargers, Titans, and Chiefs all falling below the 200-yard passing mark. So, why focus on the rushing attack?
Carlos Hyde is why. Hyde is very much a game script dependent back that excels when the Texans can offer him greater than 20 carries. Against Atlanta, when both passing attacks were moving up and down the field, Carlos Hyde barely kept the Falcons honest on the ground rushing for 60 yards on 21 carries. Opposite the Panthers and the Chargers, Hyde did not even see 15 carries and didn’t crack 60 yards. With such a game script dependency on performance, Hyde’s lack of extreme efficiency (4.3 YPC) is not going to get the job done often enough to justify going over this number. Give me the under this week. Here’s hoping for a shootout.
My Pick: Under 65.5 Rushing Yards -103
NFL Betting Picks Week 7 — WR Player Prop for Rams at 49ers
Cooper Kupp Over/Under 6.5 Receptions(use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
Lastly, we go back to Los Angeles with the top target for the aforementioned Jared Goff. This will not be long-winded, I promise.
As a result of the 49ers dominating the Rams, Cooper Kupp saw the fewest targets of his 2019 campaign when Jared Goff only looked his way six times. We cannot really blame Goff. He barely had time to breathe behind that offensive line let alone find his best buddy roaming in the secondary. Let’s review Kupp’s target total prior to the blip last week against the 49ers: 17, 15, 12, 9, and 10. In an offense featuring so many capable weapons, one would not expect a receiver to see a 28.2% target share. Yet, here we are.
Kupp leads the NFL with 69 targets and has four weeks over the 6.5-catch threshold. This week, he plays the Atlanta sieve and should receive what anybody with a pair of eyeballs should consider a boost in opportunities and production. Atlanta is allowing a very generous 71.35% completion rate to opposing offenses. This should be a “get right” spot for the Rams in Atlanta. I’ll take another over for the Rams.
My Pick: Over 6.5 Receptions -106
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 7 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 7 betting picks.
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