NFL Pick'em Pool Week 1 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
The NFL is back! The 2026 regular season begins on Wednesday with a Super Bowl LX rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks. The 49ers and Rams will play on Thursday in Australia before the first full Sunday afternoon slate of the fall!
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular season contests. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in for Week 1 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 1 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 1 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 1 Selections
1. Los Angeles Chargers
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Detroit Lions
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Las Vegas Raiders
6. New England Patriots
7. New York Jets
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Minnesota Vikings
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Dallas Cowboys
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
15. Houston Texans
16. San Francisco 49ers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 1
Chargers (vs. Cardinals)
The Chargers lost starting center Tyler Biadasz to a torn ACL during the preseason, but they entered the new campaign in good health. The Chargers managed 11 wins in 2025, despite having the 6th-most adjusted games lost due to injury.
Justin Herbert struggled behind an injury-plagued offensive line, which led to his own nagging injuries that he fought throughout most of the year. In 2026, he should have better protection and a more consistent run game to take pressure off of him on a weekly basis.
Los Angeles isn’t a team that is necessarily built to win by large margins, but they have the superior quarterback and the better coaching staff in this Week 1 matchup. They are big favorites over the Cardinals for a reason.
Jaguars (vs. Browns)
The Jaguars are a deeply flawed team on both sides of the ball heading into 2026, but they nonetheless have a great chance to start the season 1-0.
The Browns will be starting Deshaun Watson in Week 1, who ranks 51st in EPA/play and 52nd in success rate among 53 quarterbacks to log 500+ plays since the beginning of the 2022 campaign. His numbers are in the same tier as players such as Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, and Will Levis – none of whom are starting quarterbacks to begin 2026.
Cleveland’s defense has been dominant in recent years, but they traded away Myles Garrett this offseason and lost Alex Wright to a season-ending Achilles injury earlier this summer. Their pass rush projects to be much weaker this fall, which will make life more difficult for their secondary unit.
Trevor Lawrence and company should be able to take care of business in front of their home fans if they can avoid self-inflicted wounds – turnovers and unforced penalties.
Lions (vs. Saints)
Tyler Shough nearly secured Rookie Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2025 after an improbable late-season run in which he led the Saints to wins in 4 of their final 5 games. Though it may be tempting to look at those numbers as a sign of optimism for 2026, it’s worth noting that 3 of those 4 wins came by 1 score – the game that wasn’t a 1-score outcome had the much-maligned Brady Cook as the opposing team’s quarterback. Even the other wins weren’t overly impressive. The Buccaneers, Panthers, and Titans each finished under .500.
The Lions have been snake-bitten by injuries already in 2026, losing Cade Mays, Kerby Joseph, and Brian Branch to injured reserve. Still, Detroit is 18-7 SU at home in the regular season since the beginning of 2022.
Jared Goff is the better quarterback in this game. The Lions unquestionably have more talent on both sides of the ball. This is Detroit’s game to lose.
Eagles (vs. Commanders)
This is a rematch of the 2024 NFC Championship Game, but you are forgiven if that memory slipped your brain after the Commanders lost 10 of their final 12 games in 2025. The good news for Washington is that they will get their franchise quarterback, Jayden Daniels, back to start the 2026 campaign. The bad news is that the offensive line is already down their starting left tackle, Laremy Tunsil.
Defensively, Washington had the 6th-most adjusted games lost in the NFL last fall. The lack of healthy bodies unquestionably was a big reason their defense ranked 31st in EPA/play and 28th in success rate against the pass.
Facing a tough divisional opponent in Week 1 isn’t the “tune-up” game that the Commanders would like to see on their schedule to reintegrate players who missed considerable time in 2025. It’s difficult to see the Eagles losing this contest at home.
Raiders (vs. Dolphins)
The Dolphins have $179.5M in dead money against the cap in 2026, which accounts for nearly 60% of available dollars to spend on the roster. No NFL team has gone into a new season with more than 50% of the cap allocated to dead money since the 2013 Raiders – a team that finished with 4 wins, 2 of which came against two of the worst teams in the league that year in point differential.
This is a clear rebuilding year for the Dolphins. Reports from the preseason and joint practices have highlighted issues with all aspects of the roster, with both sides of the ball looking overwhelmed on a consistent basis.
The Raiders are far from being a contender, but they have more stability at quarterback, more roster cohesion from 2025, and the benefit of playing this game at home. This is one of the most winnable games on the schedule for Las Vegas this season – don’t expect them to waste the opportunity.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 0-0
Image Credit: Imagn
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 14-1
- Week 12: 8-6
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 8-6
- Week 15: 13-3
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-6
- Week 18: 15-1