NFL Pick'em Pool Week 13 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Big underdogs reigned supreme early this fall, which led to our worst start to a season ever in this article. However, we have hit our stride since Week 4, with our top confidence picks each performing exceptionally well during the last two months. Here are our top-ranked selections records since that point.
- Week 4: 8-1
- Week 5: 9-3
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 7-1
- Week 9: 10-1
- Week 10: 8-0
- Week 11: 6-2
- Week 12: 6-3
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We are locked in for Week 13 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 13 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 13 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 13 Selections
1. Detroit Lions
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Denver Broncos
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Los Angeles Rams
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Los Angeles Chargers
11. Indianapolis Colts
12. New York Jets
13. Washington Commanders
14. Houston Texans
15. Arizona Cardinals
16. New York Giants
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 13
Lions (vs. Bears)
The Lions have been the best team in the NFL all season, making them deserving of the top spot in confidence pools once again in Week 13. Detroit enters the holiday weekend with only 1 loss – a game in which they outgained Tampa Bay by 247 yards of total offense. Since their Week 5 bye, the Lions rank 2nd in offensive EPA/play and 1st in defensive EPA/play. They also rank top 3 in success rate on both sides of the ball during that stretch. Simply, this is a team with no discernible weakness at the moment. Jared Goff and company should be able to find a way to take care of the offensively-challenged Bears on Thanksgiving.
Chiefs (vs. Raiders)
Aidan O’Connell will get the start for the Raiders on Black Friday, which is a good sign for the Chiefs’ chances of winning this head-to-head matchup. Not counting O’Connell’s relief appearance in Week 3 against the Panthers, he hasn’t posted a positive EPA/play game this season. In the 2 games that O’Connell has thrown more than 12 pass attempts in 2024, Las Vegas has scored 18 points and 13 points. On the other side of this matchup, Kansas City is 10-1, with their lone defeat coming on the road against the current odds-on favorite to win the league’s MVP award. There is a reason that the Chiefs are 13-point favorites.
Broncos (vs. Browns)
Cleveland defeated Pittsburgh in primetime in Week 12, which could give some pundits and fans the illusion that this is all of a sudden a good football team. The two most important things to realize here are that the Browns will always have a reason to get up for the Steelers, regardless of the standings, and that even though the Browns beat the Steelers last week, they were still outgained by 64 yards of total offense and lost the turnover battle 3-1. Since Jameis Winston took over as Cleveland’s starting quarterback in Week 8, the Browns’ offense ranks only 22nd in EPA/play and 19th in success rate. Facing a Denver team that does a good job taking care of the football could prove to be an uphill battle for Winston and company. Denver’s defense has also quietly been a top-5 unit this fall, ranking 4th in DVOA. This is a lopsided matchup, and possibly even more lopsided than the current spread is indicating.
Bills (vs. 49ers)
San Francisco still has a lot of talent on their roster, but a lot of that talent has been unavailable to take the field in recent weeks. C Jon Feliciano, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and S Talanoa Hufanga are each on injured reserve. QB Brock Purdy, LT Trent Williams, and EDGE Nick Bosa both missed last weekend’s game against Green Bay due to injury. LG Aaron Banks and DT Jordan Elliott are currently in concussion protocol ahead of the team’s Week 13 matchup against Buffalo. If Purdy, Williams, and Bosa are each able to take the field this weekend, this could end up being a more competitive game than the market is currently anticipating. However, if the 49ers are without 5+ starters once again, this could turn into a rout, similar to what we saw this past Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Packers (vs. Dolphins)
According to local weather reports, the temperature at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving is expected to be around 30 degrees. Tua Tagovailoa has played in 40-degree temperatures or colder 4 times during his career with the Dolphins, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, per Evan Abrams. This has been a larger problem for the Miami franchise overall as well, with the team posting an 11-28 SU record all time in games with a 32-degree temperatures or colder at kickoff. Jordan Love and the Packers also present a tough matchup for Miami’s high-octane offense due to the presence of star safety Xavier McKinney. Entering play in Week 13, Green Bay has allowed only 1 passing play to go for 40+ yards in 2024, and that came all the way back in Week 1. If the Packers are once again able to limit the big play, it could be difficult for Tagovailoa and the rest of Miami’s speedsters to maintain long drives. Advantage Green Bay.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
- Week 9: 12-3
- Week 10: 9-5
- Week 11: 9-5
- Week 12: 6-7
Image Credit: Getty Images