NFL Pick'em Pool Week 2 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-up Picks
In Week 1, we hit 6 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections, which helped ease the blow of finishing 7-9 overall to begin 2024. The good news is that we have gone 10-6 twice in Week 2 over the last three years, so confidence is high that we have an even better week ahead of us!
This is my fourth year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% straight-up). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended 2023 on a high note, with our top 6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends once again.
Below, we have our Week 2 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 2 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 2 Selections
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Detroit Lions
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Houston Texans
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. San Francisco 49ers
8. Los Angeles Chargers
9. Seattle Seahawks
10. Indianapolis Colts
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Cleveland Browns
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. Tennessee Titans
15. Washington Commanders
16. Miami Dolphins
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 2
Ravens (vs. Raiders)
The Ravens didn’t play their best game in Week 1, but they still out-gained the Chiefs by 99 yards, dominated the time of possession, and were literally inches away from having a chance for a game-winning 2-point conversion as time expired. Even more inspiring, Baltimore’s offense had very little production from Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and Derrick Henry, and they still had a chance to beat the defending Super Bowl champions on the road in their season opener.
Meanwhile, the Raiders lost 22-10 to a Chargers team that is among the least talented groups in the entire NFL. Offensively, Gardner Minshew had the lowest aDOT of any starting quarterback in the league in Week 1. The team also decided to punt on 4th-and-1 from the Chargers’ 43-yard line midway through the 4th quarter, trailing 16-10 – a decision that their head coach later tried to unsuccessfully defend. Defensively, Las Vegas struggled to generate pressure and allowed multiple explosive plays on the ground.
According to Clevta, home favorites of between 7-10 points have a 151-40-1 straight-up record (79.1% win rate) in the regular season since the beginning of 2018. The Ravens should be able to take care of business, with a few extra days of preparation only further helping their cause.
Eagles (vs. Falcons)
Kirk Cousins made his long-awaited Falcons debut this past weekend against the Steelers, but his performance underwhelmed expectations severely. Cousins threw for only 155 yards, had 2 interceptions, and ranked 20th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in aDOT. In the 2nd half, Cousins had only 19 passing yards. Though Cousins has a strong career résumé, it’s worth noting that he was the first quarterback to tear his Achilles and start another game in the NFL since 2002. Aaron Rodgers joined Cousins in that statistic on Monday night but also underwhelmed. Cousins struggled in particular with his mobility and ability to go through his progressions.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles didn’t play a clean game in their season opener either, but they still managed 34 points and came away with a win against another top-tier team in the NFC. Coming back from Brazil is a moderate concern for Philadelphia, but they had 3 extra days of rest built into the schedule from their season opener to Monday Night Football in Week 2, so it shouldn’t be a major issue. The Eagles have the better quarterback and are the better team on both the offensive and defensive line. They should be able to take care of business at home against an inferior opponent, especially if Cousins continues to have issues moving around the pocket.
Lions (vs. Buccaneers)
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers impressed in Week 1, at least on the surface. However, they also played a team that had a new defensive coordinator and new faces at over half of their starting positions on the defensive side of the ball. Washington was also one of the worst defenses in the NFL a season ago, finishing 31st in DVOA, so Tampa Bay’s 37-point performance in their season opener should be put into its proper context.
The Lions didn’t seem overly impressive on Sunday Night Football, but it’s worth noting that Jared Goff didn’t play in the preseason, and they clearly didn’t fully open their playbook at any point during the game. Even with Goff not having his best game and Amon-Ra St. Brown being a complete non-factor, Detroit finished Week 1 ranked 10th in offensive EPA/play and 5th in success rate. The Lions should have little trouble moving the ball effectively against a Buccaneers defense that was torched by a rookie signal caller last week, who was making his first career start on the road. Detroit’s defense is likely good enough to contain Tampa Bay’s offense, but the Lions are capable of winning a shootout as well.
Cowboys (vs. Saints)
The Cowboys dominated the Browns on the road in Week 1, and the scary thing is that they didn’t even play that well. Dak Prescott threw for only 179 yards and had a 5.4% turnover-worthy play rate, the latter of which ranked 29th out of 32 starting quarterbacks. It was Dallas’ defense and special teams that gave them an easy win against a Cleveland team that made the playoffs in 2023. The Cowboys defense generated the 3rd-best pressure rate in the NFL in Week 1, and they scored a special teams touchdown thanks to the playmaking ability of KaVontae Turpin.
Derek Carr and the Saints bruised and battered the Panthers in Week 1, but the way in which they won that game is unlikely to translate well on a week-to-week basis. The Saints had 4 sacks, but 3 of them came from their slot cornerback, Alontae Taylor. New Orleans also committed 10 penalties for 95 yards but benefited from 3 Carolina turnovers. Carr also had time to take shots downfield against a Panthers pass rush that was nonexistent.
Prescott and the Cowboys are 16-1 at home during the regular season over the last 2 seasons. They have multiple pathways to getting a win on Sunday, which should allow them to move to 2-0.
Texans (vs. Bears)
Since 2000, rookie quarterbacks are 12-34 straight-up on the road during the first two weeks of the season. Even worse, rookie quarterbacks are 2-23 straight-up in those games when facing an opponent that finished that season .500 or better. Of course, we don’t know for sure that the Texans will finish above .500 this season, but they earned an impressive victory on the road in Week 1 and are coming off of a season in which they won their division and took down the Browns in the opening round of the playoffs.
Caleb Williams was the only starting quarterback in Week 1 to throw for fewer than 100 yards. He faced a tough Tennessee defense, but the fact remains that he was consistently uncomfortable in the pocket in his debut. Life is unlikely to get much easier for him on the road in Week 2. Houston’s pass rush isn’t elite, so there could be some positive regression in terms of passing yards, but it’s difficult to see Chicago’s offense doing enough to keep pace with CJ Stroud and company this early in the season.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
Image Credit: Getty Images