NFL Pick'em Pool Week 5 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-up Picks
In Week 1, we hit 6 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 2, we managed to finish 8-8 overall despite a number of notable home favorites being upset. In Week 3, we had our worst week ever in this article, with the NFL experiencing its second consecutive Black Sunday. However, we rebounded in Week 4 to hit 8 of our top 9 pick’em confidence selections.
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended 2023 on a high note, with our top 6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 5 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning for all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 5 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 5 Selections
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Dallas Cowboys
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Chicago Bears
9. Denver Broncos
10. Miami Dolphins
11. Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Minnesota Vikings
13. Cleveland Browns
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 5
49ers (vs. Cardinals)
There are no “locks” on the NFL slate in Week 5, but the one matchup that has the chance to be particularly lopsided is the Cardinals against the 49ers. Arizona enters play with very few redeemable qualities. Their defense ranks 29th in DVOA, 30th in EPA/play, and 32nd in success rate, with their numbers being almost equally poor against both the run and the pass. Offensively, the Cardinals have some intriguing pieces, but it hasn’t translated to much production yet this fall. Kyler Murray and company have scored 20 points or fewer in 3 of their first 4 games, with the lone exception being a game against the most injury-ravaged team in the entire NFL.
The 49ers have not been perfect to begin the new campaign, but they are 2-0 at home and looked much better in Week 4, with WR Deebo Samuel and TE George Kittle returning to the field. This is a good matchup for Brock Purdy, facing an anemic Arizona pass rush that has consistently been near the bottom of the league in pressure rate this year. Purdy leads all qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt from a clean pocket.
San Francisco has some injury concerns to monitor heading into the weekend, but this is still one of the most talented teams in the league, even if they are missing a couple of starters. The 49ers should be able to take care of business at home here, where they are 15-4 during the regular season since the beginning of 2022.
Seahawks (vs. Giants)
This ranking for the Seahawks is entirely dependent on their final injury report not being as ghastly as it was in Week 4. This past Monday, Seattle was missing 5 key contributors on defense – EDGE Uchenna Nwosu, EDGE Boye Mafe, DT Byron Murphy II, DE Leonard Williams, and LB Jerome Baker. The net result was this defense allowing 42 points, in addition to letting Jared Goff become the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 100% of his pass attempts in a single game. The hope is that Seattle is able to get at least a few of these big names back on the field for Week 5 against New York.
The Giants have their own injury concerns to monitor heading into this weekend. Star rookie WR Malik Nabers is currently in concussion protocol and hasn’t practiced yet this week. RB Devin Singletary, CB Adoree’ Jackson, and CB Dru Phillips were also non-participants at practice on Wednesday. The potential absence of Nabers, plus a pair of starting members of the secondary unit, would be a lot for the Giants to overcome in this spot, playing on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the league.
Be sure to monitor the injury report for both of these teams ahead of kickoff.
Chiefs (vs. Saints)
The Chiefs are one of the league’s two remaining undefeated teams in 2024, but it’s not a stretch in the slightest to say that they are undeserving of their record. Kansas City ranks only 7th in point differential, 10th in offensive DVOA, and 15th in defensive DVOA through 4 games. They survived their season opener by a big toe, escaped a home upset in Week 2 thanks to a defensive pass interference call on 4th & desperation, and benefited from a very questionable no-call in the end zone in Week 3 that would have given Atlanta a late lead. That being said, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs simply find a way to win games – with or without help from the officials.
The likely absence of WR Rashee Rice is notable for a Kansas City offense that has struggled to begin the season, but New Orleans seems likely to be without Taysom Hill, who has been an essential ingredient for the Saints in short-yardage situations this year. New Orleans will continue to be without their All-Pro starting center as well, leaving their offensive line isn’t in ideal shape.
Kansas City probably doesn’t win in blowout fashion in Week 5, but it would be surprising to see them lose outright.
Ravens (vs. Bengals)
Frankly, it’s surprising to see the Bengals favored against a competent opponent. Joe Burrow has been mostly very good since a poor showing in the team’s season opener, but the rest of this Cincinnati roster leaves a lot to be desired. Defensively, the Bengals have been mediocre or worse against each of their first 4 opponents, with 3 consecutive games trending closer to bad than mediocre. In Week 4, Cincinnati’s defense had the lowest pressure rate in the league despite playing a Carolina team that was missing a starter on the offensive line.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens somehow found a way to blow a 10-point second-half lead at home to the Raiders earlier this season, but they have spent the last 2 weeks making up for that sin. Baltimore went into Jerry World and built a 28-6 lead against Dallas going into the 4th quarter. In Week 4, the Ravens outgained the Bills by nearly 200 yards in a game that was never close.
Baltimore is the significantly more talented team in this matchup. It’s never easy to win a division game on the road, but the wrong team is favored here.
Bills (vs. Texans)
Yes, Buffalo was embarrassed on national television in Week 4 against Baltimore. No, that doesn’t mean that they are extremely overrated. Through 4 games, the Bills defense ranks 6th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate against the pass, compared to 30th in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate against the run. Thus, the run-heavy Ravens were an obviously bad matchup for the Bills.
However, in Week 5, they should have a much easier time figuring out how to limit the damage done against them on the ground. Houston’s offense enters play ranked 21st in rush DVOA, 30th in rush EPA/play, and 28th in rush success rate. It’s also possible that Buffalo gets a pair of defensive starters back on the field this weekend, with LB Terrel Bernard and CB Taron Johnson returning to practice on Wednesday.
Josh Allen is the better quarterback in this matchup. If his defense is trending up into the weekend, the Bills should have a great chance to come away with a win.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
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