NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 11
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 10 was a very strange week in the NFL and the first time all year that both road defenses and underdog defenses outscored the home defenses and favored defenses. This led to only four favorites out of 13 winning their games outright. Only three favorites covered the spread this past week, which I’m sure made Vegas happy. In terms of home teams, they fared even worse with only three home teams winning outright. It was the week of the road underdog. I mention this because despite what I said above about putting yourself in “good situations,” things do not always work out as one would predict. The nature of the NFL is the “any given Sunday” mantra, and in Week 10 it held true. I think a lot of experience players had an overall bad week in Week 10 for the reasons listed above. But again, we can only continue to put ourselves in “good situations,” and let variance work itself out over time.
Week 10 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 9:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.48
Other Defenses to Target: 7.41
All Favorites: 8.35
All Home Teams: 7.44
All Teams: 7.08
Week 10 Top Scoring Defenses: Kansas City Chiefs (19 pts), Pittsburgh Steelers (15 pts), Houston Texans (14 pts).
The defense that fit the criteria had an up and down week, which isn’t surprising considering the Week 10 statistics I mentioned in my opening. The teams I thought were in the best position, Denver and St. Louis, fell completely flat and only produced 1 fantasy point combined between them. Fortunately the Steelers produced a very strong effort, holding the Browns to nine points and had three turnovers and five sacks. The Seahawks also produced a nice effort with 11 fantasy points, although it was mainly helped by a late defensive touchdown. They struggled to slow down the Cardinals offense, but sometimes we just need that timely turnover and TD to save the day.
The other defense to target was also solid with the Panthers producing 9 fantasy points. They held the Titans to 10 points scored, and were able to create two turnovers and get one sack. It was not a huge day, but one that certainly would not have hurt you very much in cash games or GPPs.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Seattle Seahawks ($5400 FD, $4000 DK) vs San Francisco- Seattle is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. In today’s NFL, this is about as low as a team total will get. The Niners are projected to score only 14 points this week. This Niners’ offense has been bad this year as they rank last in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense. Seattle ranks 2nd in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. Sometimes there is not too much other analysis that needs to be added. Seattle is the highest priced defense on both sites, but with good reason. They are the top cash game defense this week in my opinion.
Carolina Panthers ($4900 FD, $3400 DK) vs Washington- Carolina is a seven-point favorite with a total of 45. If you are looking for a little cost savings this week, I would rank Carolina right behind Seattle. Carolina is a top 10 in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense. They are tied for 2nd in the NFL with 20 takeaways. Washington has been better the last few weeks on offense, but they still rank 20th in total offense and 17th in scoring offense. They have turned the ball over 14 times. This matchup doesn’t set up quite as well as Seattle, but it is still a good one. I think the Panthers are a good, safe option this week.
Promo Alert!: We’ve partnered with FantasyDraft to host a $7,000 freeroll for Grinders referrals only. The grand prize is an all-expense paid trip to meet Drew Brees, but we’re also giving away more than 250 GPP tickets in the freeroll. We have tons of exclusive sign-up bonuses for new depositors, too! Check out full details.
Philadelphia Eagles ($4900 FD, $3100 DK) vs Tampa Bay- Philadelphia is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 45. The Eagles continue to be a very good boom or bust option at defense for GPP’s. They have scored in double digits in four of their 10 games this season. Over the last five weeks, they have put up seven, 12, seven, 19, and 14 fantasy points. Their defense will give up some yards, but they are 10th in scoring offense in 2nd in the NFL in takeaways with 20. Jameis Winston has not been quite as generous with turnovers as I thought he would be, but Tampa has still turned it over 16 times this season. I think the Eagles make a nice, high-upside GPP option this week.
Other Defenses to Target
Kansas City Chiefs ($4400 FD, $2600 DK) at San Diego- The defenses that fit the criteria highlighted some of the highest priced, top options this week, I wanted to list a lower priced option in this section. I came across the Kansas City Chiefs defense, which outside road games against tough offenses in Green Bay and Cincinnati, have been fantastic. Taking away those two games, Kansas City’s defense has scored 90 fantasy points in eight games. Over the last three weeks they have put up 19, 14, and 12 fantasy points. They have scored in double figures in six of 10 weeks. I would prefer if they were at home, but they face a San Diego team that has now lost five straight games, and seven of their last eight. They have a weak offensive line and have now lost their top two WRs. At this price point, I think Kansas City makes a great GPP option, and wouldn’t even argue if you used them in cash games.