NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 4
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
After a crazy Week 2 with a lot of upsets, Week 3 was a better week in terms of being able to predict defensive production. One thing I want to briefly discuss is the idea of being contrarian. I know I mention it a lot in my column. Week 2 was a great week to be contrarian. But in Week 3 I thought the Seattle defense stood out above all others as an incredible lock for production from the defensive position (I know. It’s easy to say in hindsight). They were at home, huge favorites, facing a backup QB in Jimmy Clausen, and needed a win badly after a 0-2 start.
For the most part, I locked Seattle in as my defense on almost all of my teams, especially cash games, and then moved on. Yet their ownership percentages this week were as follows: 22.6% NFL Sunday Million on FanDuel, 33.1% in $25 Big Double Up on FD, 30.7% in Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, 43.8% in NFL MASSIVE $25 Double Up. Seattle did not finish as the highest scoring defense of the week (Arizona did with 2 defensive TDs), but they pitched a shutout and put up 18 fantasy points. Even in double ups, they were less than 50% owned. Unless your opponents had Arizona, you had an advantage on the field just by locking in the obvious defensive choice of the week.
Week 3 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 3.
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.87
Other Defenses to Target: 6.86
All Favorites: 8.47
All Home Teams: 7.56
All Teams: 7.14
Week 3 Top Scoring Defenses: Arizona Cardinals (28 points), Seattle Seahawks (18 points), Philadelphia Eagles (16 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had three hits, one miss, and one average game in Week 3. I’ve already discussed Seattle above, who finished as the second-highest scoring defense of the week, but the big hit of the week was the Arizona Cardinals defense. As I mentioned last week, the Niners offense is a mess, and if you can get a lead and force them to pass, I do not think Colin Kaepernick is going to beat many teams with his arm. Arizona was able to force him into four interceptions, two of which they returned for a TD. The Cardinals are looking like a defense we can trust most weeks, while the Niners are looking like an offense to target defenses against.
The other three defenses that fit the criteria in Week 3 were a mixed bag. Baltimore, despite giving up 28 points scored, was able to salvage their fantasy day with a strip sack returned for a TD (finished with 11 fantasy points). Houston on the other hand put up a very good defensive performance in game, holding the Bucs to only 9 points, but they were disappointing from a fantasy perspective only producing 6 fantasy points. The miss of the week was the Cleveland Browns. I thought they presented some GPP upside against the Raiders offense. But after three weeks, I am questioning whether the Raiders are still an offense to target. Carr and Cooper have both looked very good through three weeks this season.
The other defense to target also fizzled out in Week 3. The Jets looked to be in a great situation, playing well, at home, and facing a struggling Eagles defense. That didn’t turn out to be the case as the Jets only produced 3 fantasy points. That being said, their defense still played well, and shut the Eagles out in the second half. The Eagles only produced 230 yards of total offense. But, the Jets allowed a few big plays in the first half (mainly a Sproles punt return TD), and just didn’t force Sam Bradford into turnovers as expected.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Seattle Seahawks ($5300 FD, $3700 DK) vs Detroit- The Seahawks are 9.5-point favorites with a total of 43. I think the Seahawks have to make the short list of top cash game and GPP plays again this week. Shockingly, through three weeks they do not have an interception yet. I think that changes this week against Matthew Stafford who has thrown at least one interception in every game, and has turned it over six times this season. The Lions have had trouble blocking early in the season, especially for the run game. I expect Stafford to throw it 40+ times in this game, which should give the Legion of Boom the opportunity to create some turnovers. Despite the highest price tag on both sites, I will be trying to fit the Seahawks in many of my lineups again this week.
Arizona Cardinals ($5000 FD, $3400 DK) vs St. Louis- The Cardinals are 7-point favorites with a total of 42. If there is an argument for top defense this week other than Seattle, I think it is the Cardinals. The Cardinals defense has been a top-five defense this year and they are facing the worst offense in the NFL through three weeks. The Cardinals have now had two defensive/special teams TD’s in each of the last two weeks. The Cardinals present huge upside again this week. I will likely try to split my exposure to both them and Seattle, and even possibly take the $300 discount on both sites with the Cardinals if it makes my lineups work better this week.
Denver Broncos ($4700 FD, $3300 DK) vs Minnesota- The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites with a total of 42. The Broncos have been the best defense in the NFL through three games in total defense and are third in points allowed. They also have forced the second-most turnovers in the NFL with ten takeaways through three games. The downside this week is that their opponent is the most run-heavy team in the NFL. As with most run heavy teams, they limit the chances for defenses to put up a lot of fantasy points against them. That being said, if Denver can jump out to a lead and force Bridgewater to throw, they present a lot more upside than if Adrian Peterson runs the ball 25-30 times. I may take the discount on FanDuel a few times, but will likely stick with Seattle or Arizona on DraftKings.
Cincinnati Bengals ($4700 FD, $2800 DK) vs Kansas City- The Bengals are 4-point favorites with a total of 44. The Cincinnati defense has been pretty good through three games with their biggest strength being against the run. I think this matchup sets up well for them as Kansas City wants to run the ball and let Alex Smith manage the game. KC’s offense was non-existent versus Green Bay until it got into garbage time. Cincinnati has also forced six turnovers in three weeks while Kansas City has turned it over six times in three weeks. I think if they can slow down Charles and force Alex Smith to throw, the opportunities for more turnovers will be there. I don’t know if I’ll have much exposure to Cincinnati, but the discount is certainly tempting on DraftKings.
San Diego Chargers ($4400 FD, $2800 DK) vs Cleveland- The Chargers are 7.5-point favorites with a total of 45. There always seems to be one defense that fits the criteria that stands out to me as my least favorite. This week that is San Diego. Last week it was Baltimore, who as mentioned before, posted a solid 11 fantasy points. But the Chargers are big favorites here and the Browns team total is projected to be less than 20 points. This is more of an opportunistic play though as Cleveland has turned the ball over seven times in three weeks. Overall, the Browns offense has been relatively poor (outside some Travis Benjamin big plays), and I think the Chargers have the upside to make a good GPP flier, especially on FanDuel where they save you $600-900 in salary over Seattle and Arizona.