The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Bears vs. Texans
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Bears vs. Texans, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bears vs. Texans
This is one of the most intriguing games of the week. The Bears had all of the offseason attention but were saved by two defensive and special teams touchdowns in Week 1. Hopes are still high in Chicago, but expectations seem to be tempered a bit after the offense struggled in their opener. The Texans picked up right where they left off last season, beating the Colts in Indianapolis. This is a team that could easily challenge for one of the top few spots in the AFC. Tonight’s game features a 6.5-point spread and a 45.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Keenan Allen – Questionable (no practice Friday)
Rome Odunze – Questionable (limited practice Friday)
Dameon Pierce – Questionable (no practice Friday)
Chicago Bears Preview
Caleb Williams didn’t exactly have a stellar start to his NFL season, but the Bears picked up a win. Williams completed fewer than 50% of his pass attempts and didn’t even throw for 100 yards. Perhaps the Titans’ defense is even better than most of us thought heading into the season. He’ll look to bounce back against the Colts, who gave up a massive fantasy outing to Anthony Richardson in Week 1. Quarterbacks are always viable on Showdown slates, and his poor performance last week could lead to lower ownership. I’m not planning to use him at MVP or CPT, but he’ll be featured as a UTIL play in most of my lineups.
Here’s a quick summary of the usage for Chicago’s receiving room in Week 1:
DJ Moore: 91% route percentage, 28% target rate, 30% air yards share
Keenan Allen: 70% route percentage, 28% target rate, 42% air yards share
Rome Odunze: 70% route percentage, 10% target rate, 15% air yards share
Cole Kmet: 27% route percentage, 3% target rate, 1% air yards share
While none of the wideouts played particularly well in Week 1, that’s to be expected when the starting quarterback fails to throw for 100 yards. We should be encouraged by the underlying usage for Moore and Allen. The big question mark heading into Sunday night’s game is the availability of Allen and Odunze. They are both listed as questionable. Allen did not practice on Friday, while Odunze got in a limited practice. If one is out, the other will benefit along with Moore and Deandre Carter. The Texans don’t have the most intimidating secondary, and the Bears could be trailing in this one, so it’s a good spot to target these wideouts. Cole Kmet seems like an afterthought in this offense, as he only ran a route on 27% of dropbacks.
Update: Keenan Allen is now doubtful. With him expected to miss the game, Moore is the clear WR1 for the Bears. Odunze could also see a higher target share if he’s active. For value, we can rotate Carter and Velus Jones into our lineups.
D’Andre Swift was the clear RB1 for Chicago in the opener. His 11 opportunities don’t look great on paper, but they accounted for 71% of the running back opportunities. The Texans were 21st in EPA against the run in Week 1, and we can expect the Bears to try to establish the run early to take some pressure off their rookie quarterback. Travis Homer and Khalil Herbert both mixed in, but Swift appears to have control of this backfield for now.
The Bears’ defense was a real difference maker in Week 1, but they are running into a juggernaut in the Texans’ offense. I won’t prioritize Chicago’s D/ST in my builds, but I’m fine getting a little exposure to them in large-field tournaments. Kicker Cairo Santos is a strong cash game and small-field tournament target.
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Houston Texans Preview
C.J. Stroud didn’t have a slate-breaking performance in Week 1, but he completed 75% of his passes and threw 2 touchdowns without an interception. More importantly, he led his team to a win over a division rival. My main takeaway from last week’s game is that we are unlikely to see 30 carries from Joe Mixon again anytime soon. Stroud has some of the best weapons in the NFL, and while he doesn’t run all that often, he certainly has speed if a lane opens up. The Bears have a stout defense, but Stroud is a strong option in all formats. He owns the highest median projection of any player on the slate.
Here’s a quick summary of the usage for Houston’s receiving room in Week 1:
Nico Collins: 89% route percentage, 22% target rate, 49% air yards share
Stefon Diggs: 87% route percentage, 19% target rate, 3% air yards share
Tank Dell: 82% route percentage, 22% target rate, 46% air yards share
Dalton Schultz: 76% route percentage, 9% target rate, 5% air yards share
Diggs caught 2 touchdowns in Week 1, but it was Collins and Dell who dominated the underlying usage statistics. They both saw more targets, and the two essentially combined for 95% of the team’s air yards. While he’s always going to be a red zone threat, I wasn’t encouraged by the 1.7 aDOT for Diggs. Collins looks like an every-week play in DFS, while this could be a solid bounce-back spot for Dell. The fact that they gave him a couple of rushing attempts shows that they are trying to get the ball in his hands. Dalton Schultz is a good tight end in the NFL, but he has a lot of competition for targets. He’ll likely need to score to find his way onto the optimal lineup.
Mixon has always been a capable running back, but the efficiency numbers haven’t exactly been there over the last few seasons. He’s likely an upgrade over who the Texans had in their backfield last season, and it’s clear that they don’t mind giving him a full workload. He turned 33 touches into 178 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. We saw Tony Pollard have a nice game against the Bears last week, and as a result, Chicago is 19th in EPA against the run and 21st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. He’s a strong option given his role and the fact the Texans are sizable home favorites.
I have a lot more interest in Houston’s defense than I do in Chicago’s even though I think the latter has the more talented defense. The Texans are at home, they are favored, and they are facing a rookie quarterback who’s making his first road start in the NFL. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn is one of my favorite value plays of the slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
There are a lot of question marks with both of these offenses. There are a lot of different routes you can take with your builds on this slate. My favorite game script is the Texans getting out to an early lead. This could bode well for both their defense and their kicker. Half of my builds will likely be full onslaught stacks (5 Texans player, 1 Bears player).
Bears vs. Texans DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 21.22 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 2.17 | $16,000 | 1.33 |
| Joe Mixon | HOU | RB | 18.43 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.81 | $14,500 | 1.27 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 16.82 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.91 | $13,000 | 1.29 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 16.10 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.61 | $13,500 | 1.19 |
| Stefon Diggs | HOU | WR | 14.62 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.56 | $12,500 | 1.17 |
| Tank Dell | HOU | WR | 13.35 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.80 | $11,500 | 1.16 |
| D.J. Moore | CHI | WR | 12.86 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.43 | $12,000 | 1.07 |
| D’Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 12.78 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.83 | $10,500 | 1.22 |
| Keenan Allen | CHI | WR | 12.18 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.45 | $11,000 | 1.11 |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 7.49 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.17 | $10,000 | 0.75 |
| Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | K | 7.24 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.80 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 7.15 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.63 | $9,000 | 0.79 |
| Texans | HOU | DST | 6.80 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.70 | $8,500 | 0.80 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 6.69 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.19 | $9,500 | 0.70 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 4.94 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.65 | $8,000 | 0.62 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 4.46 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 0.89 | $9,500 | 0.47 |
| Brevin Jordan | HOU | TE | 3.87 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.42 | $7,500 | 0.52 |
| DeAndre Carter | CHI | WR | 3.44 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.72 | $6,500 | 0.53 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | 2.84 | $400 | $600 | 7.10 | $6,500 | 0.44 |
| Gerald Everett | CHI | TE | 2.55 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.06 | $8,000 | 0.32 |
| Khalil Herbert | CHI | RB | 2.54 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 0.71 | $8,500 | 0.30 |
| Travis Homer | CHI | RB | 2.26 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.26 | $7,000 | 0.32 |
| Velus Jones | CHI | WR | 1.16 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.97 | $6,500 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Tank Dell: $7,400 DK / $11,500 FD
Game log watchers are going to see the big outing from Nico Collins and the pair of touchdowns from Stefon Diggs in Week 1. Paying a premium for Dell won’t feel great to many even though he had 22% of the team’s targets and 46% of the team’s air yards. This is a good bounce-back spot for the second-year wideout.
Bears vs. Texans Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 4-1
Ka’imi Fairbairn more than 1.5 field goals (1.50x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Our streak came to an end on Thursday night. We needed 17.5 receiving yards from James Cook. He had 17 on the first drive and didn’t catch another pass the rest of the game. We are going to have some good and bad breaks throughout the season. We’ll chalk that up to a bad break and move on to Sunday night. We are going back to a kicker play for tonight’s game. The Texans have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, yet the Bears have a capable defense. We could see them move the ball up and down the field but ultimately have to settle for field goals. Fairbairn made all 3 of his field goal attempts in Week 1.
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