The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Bengals vs. Cowboys
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bengals vs. Cowboys, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bengals vs. Cowboys
Happy Monday! With only 1 NBA game on the schedule tonight, all eyes will be focused on the Monday Night Football game. Before the season, a matchup between these two teams was a great one to have for a primetime game — two playoff teams with Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott. However, neither of these teams is likely to make the playoffs and Prescott is out for the rest of the season. While this doesn’t mean much in terms of the playoff picture, it should still be a fun game for DFS. It features a 4.5-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Evan McPherson – Out
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
If the Bengals were 8-4 instead of 4-8, Joe Burrow would be in the running to win the MVP. He’s been one of the most consistent and efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. He has averaged 26 fantasy points per game and has a dream matchup in front of him. The Cowboys have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and have had a very beatable secondary. As long as Burrow has time in the pocket, he will shred this defense.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage in the games where JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins have been active:
JaMarr Chase: 23% target share, 32% air yards share, 29% first-read rate
Tee Higgins: 26% target share, 39% air yards share, 37% first-read rate
Andrei Iosivas: 8% target share, 15% air yards share, 8% first-read rate
Mike Gesicki: 6% target share, 8% air yards share, 6% first-read rate
We often think of Chase as the WR1 and Higgins as the WR2 in this offense, but Higgins has a higher target share, air yards share, and first-read rate in games when they have both been active this season. This doesn’t mean we should fade Chase in lieu of Higgins, but the latter is certainly more appealing on a per-dollar basis. Given the matchup, there’s a path for both to get there against the Cowboys. Andrei Iosivas and Mike Gesicki have combined for a 14% target share in games where Chase and Higgins were both active this season. I’d rather look to the Cowboys for cheap wideouts.
Chase Brown has had very little competition for touches since Zack Moss went down with his season-ending injury. Over the last 4 games, he has averaged over 20 touches and has scored 3 touchdowns during that stretch. He’ll be licking his chops for a matchup against the Cowboys, who are 26th or worse in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Brown is a sneaky option at the multiplier positions.
Cooper Rush is the current quarterback of the Cowboys, so I suppose there’s a path for the Bengals D/ST to force some turnovers. However, I’d rather target the skill position players. Evan McPherson is out, so Cade York will be the kicker. Again, I’d rather prioritize the skill position players.
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Dallas Cowboys Preview
It has not been a fun season for the Cowboys, but they’ll look for their 3rd win in a row. I suppose they could run the table and sneak into the playoffs, but that seems like a pipe dream at this point. Cooper Rush has been decent over the last 3 games, averaging 17 fantasy points with a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s playing at home against the Bengals, who are 28th in EPA against the pass and 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. He’s not my favorite MVP/CPT target, but he’s one of my favorite FLEX/UTIL targets.
Let’s check out the usage of the Cowboys’ wideouts over the last 3 games:
CeeDee Lamb: 23% target share, 20% air yards share, 29% first-read rate
Jalen Tolbert: 10% target share, 17% air yards share, 9% first-read rate
Brandin Cooks: 20% target share, 40% air yards share, 22% first-read rate
I didn’t include the tight ends in the usage breakdown, as Jake Ferguson has been out. He’ll be back in the lineup and is expected to reclaim his TE1 role. The Bengals are 31st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and we’ve seen Rush pepper his tight ends with targets the last few games. The Bengals have also struggled to defend wide receivers (23rd), so don’t be afraid to target CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Since returning from injury, Cooks has a 40% air yards share. He’s not running as many routes as Jalen Tolbert, but he’s been the better target-earner.
Rico Dowdle has had 22 and 25 touches in the last 2 games. He’s been a big part of the passing game and has topped 19 fantasy points in 3 of his last 7 games. Given how many good spends there are on the slate, there’s a decent chance he ends up getting overlooked. The Bengals are a tremendous matchup, as they are 29th in EPA against the run this season. Ezekiel Elliott is worth a look on DraftKings ($1,200), as he could find his way into the optimal lineup by falling into the endzone.
The Cowboys D/ST has played well in each of the last 2 games. I’m still not 100% convinced that they are back, but they can be targeted in large-field tournaments. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is one of the best in the game and worth a look in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I only build a few lineups for each Showdown slate, but I plan to use one of the key four players on the Bengals in my multiplier spots (MVP/CPT). This includes Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown. The big issue on the slate is a lack of value. On DraftKings, we might have to punt a spot or two with the cheap Cowboys — Jalen Tolbert, Hunter Luepke, and Ezekiel Elliott. I hate to say it, but I prefer the Cowboys side of things when it comes to the defense and kicker.
Bengals vs. Cowboys DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 21.44 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 2.10 | $14,500 | 1.48 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 21.36 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.84 | $15,500 | 1.38 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 21.14 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 2.16 | $12,500 | 1.69 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 18.48 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.93 | $13,000 | 1.42 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 17.20 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.62 | $14,000 | 1.23 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 16.06 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.78 | $11,000 | 1.46 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | QB | 15.87 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.80 | $11,500 | 1.38 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | 9.37 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.34 | $10,500 | 0.89 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 8.63 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.60 | $10,000 | 0.86 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 8.36 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.67 | $8,500 | 0.98 |
| Cade York | CIN | K | 8.03 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.67 | $9,000 | 0.89 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 6.58 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.35 | $7,500 | 0.88 |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | TE | 5.56 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 0.99 | $8,500 | 0.65 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 5.37 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.79 | $7,500 | 0.72 |
| Bengals | CIN | DST | 5.23 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.31 | $9,000 | 0.58 |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | WR | 5.14 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.17 | $9,500 | 0.54 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 5.00 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.39 | $8,000 | 0.63 |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 3.12 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.95 | $5,500 | 0.57 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.91 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 0.86 | $8,000 | 0.36 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 2.74 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.28 | $7,000 | 0.39 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 2.66 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.33 | $6,500 | 0.41 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 2.21 | $400 | $600 | 5.53 | $5,500 | 0.40 |
| Khalil Herbert | CIN | RB | 2.15 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.90 | $7,000 | 0.31 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jake Ferguson $5,400 DK / $10,000 FD
In general, DFS players are hesitant to target players coming back from injury. On top of that, this is shaping up to be a stars and scrubs type of build (especially on DraftKings). These two factors should lead to low ownership for Jake Ferguson. We know Cooper Rush likes to throw to the tight end, while the Bengals have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to the position.
Bengals vs. Cowboys Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-18
Tee Higgins more than 5.5 receptions (1.59x) – Sleeper Fantasy
As noted above, Tee Higgins has had a 26% target share this season. He’s had double-digit targets in 4 of the last 6 games and is facing a very beatable secondary of the Cowboys. I love the underlying usage metrics and could see a breakout performance coming in this matchup.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus