The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Bills vs. Chiefs
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Bills vs. Chiefs, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bills vs. Chiefs
The rosters of these two teams have changed, but we still have another epic battle between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the playoffs. The last two times they have met in the playoffs, the teams have combined to score 78 and 62 points. A trip to the AFC Championship is on the line, and you know Buffalo fans are going to be out in full force. This game features a 2.5-point spread and a 46-point total.
Key Injuries
Gabe Davis – Out
Skyy Moore – Out
Kadarius Toney – Out
Justyn Ross – Questionable
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills feel like the team of destiny. It was looking like they were going to miss the playoffs but then rattled off 5 straight wins to end the regular season and somehow claim the 2nd seed in the AFC. Josh Allen has always been an elite fantasy producer. He has scored at least 21 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games and has averaged 26 fantasy points per game on the season. The Bills have gone to a more run-heavy approach recently, but a lot of that rushing production has gone to Allen. In the last 3 games alone, he has 34 rush attempts, 185 rushing yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. The Chiefs present a very difficult challenge defensively, but Allen is still my favorite MVP and CPT.
James Cook has been extremely volatile this season. The efficiency is great, but he’s essentially the third option for the Bills on the goal line. The Bills decided to part ways with Leonard Fournette, but they will still lean on Allen and Latavius Murray when they get near the end zone. The positives for Cook are that he’s a very capable pass catcher and that the matchup sets up a lot better for the run than the pass. The Chiefs are 5th in DVOA against the pass and 27th in DVOA against the run. The upside is there, but he also has a low floor. Murray and Ty Johnson aren’t cheap enough on DraftKings to be anything other than MME fliers.
Stefon Diggs has been overpriced for what feels like months. He got off to a hot start but has been held under 16 fantasy points in 6 straight games. To make matters worse, he is facing L’Jarius Sneed and the Chiefs, who have been extremely tough on WR1s this season. Diggs is talented enough to get there, but there’s not a lot to suggest that it will happen in this game. With Gabe Davis out last week, Khalil Shakir ran a route on 74% of dropbacks. He only saw 3 targets, but he made a big play at the end of the game and found the end zone. If the Chiefs can take away Diggs, it should force targets underneath and over the middle. I’m a big fan of Shakir in this spot.
Trent Sherfield ran a route on 44% of dropbacks last week but was only out there to do wind sprints. He didn’t see a single target all game. The good news is that he’s only $400 on DraftKings and will be on the field a lot. He’s an easy click if you need a punt play. Dalton Kincaid has been a big part of the offense in the second half of the season and is finally starting to see more targets down the field. Dawson Knox only ran a route on 29% of dropbacks last week but did catch a big touchdown against the Steelers. I prefer Kincaid in DFS, but I did bet Knox to score the first touchdown at +2500 (DraftKings).
One of the biggest stories heading into this game is the health of the Bills’ defense. They lost Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano early in the season and have been losing players to injury left and right in recent weeks. There’s a path for them to play well here, but I am not making them a priority for this showdown slate. It’s going to be cold and windy, but kicker Tyler Bass is a strong option in all formats.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs made quick work of the Dolphins in the Wild Card round. They haven’t been as consistent this season but are certainly capable of defending their Super Bowl title. They have knocked the Bills out of the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 years and will look to do it again on Sunday. This matchup looks difficult on paper, but Buffalo will be short-handed defensively. The main issue I have with Mahomes is that we haven’t seen much of a ceiling from him all season. The most he has scored over the last 10 games is 21 fantasy points. He’s a strong option for this showdown slate, but I prefer using him as a FLEX play.
Isiah Pacheco has been the star of the Chiefs’ offense this season. When healthy, they have leaned on him in the running game and the passing game. He’s had 25 touches in each of the last 2 games and has racked up 10 touchdowns in 15 games on the season. Similar to the Chiefs, the Bills have been much tougher against the pass (7th in EPA) than they have been against the run (24th in EPA). This all sets up well for a big Pacheco game, especially since Jerick McKinnon is still out. Given the fact that he has topped 24 fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games, I plan to have more exposure to him at MVP and CPT than Mahomes.
Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore have already been ruled out of this game, while Justyn Ross is listed as questionable. All three missed last week’s game against the Dolphins. Here’s how the routes, targets, and air yards were distributed to the rest of the wide receivers and tight ends:
- Travis Kelce: 86% of routes, 24% target share, 18% air yards share
- Rashee Rice: 81% of routes, 24% target share, 24% air yards share
- Justin Watson: 61% of routes, 5% target share, 7% air yards share
- Mecole Hardman: 47% of routes, 7% target share, 23% air yards share
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 40% of routes, 5% target share, 17% air yards share
- Noah Gray: 26% of routes, 2% target share, 7% air yards share
- Richie James: 19% of routes, 5% target share, 5% air yards share
As noted with the Packers in the Saturday night game breakdown, just because something happened last week doesn’t mean that it will happen again this week. However, we can expect Kelce and Rice to dominate the snaps, routes, and targets. There’s certainly a path for both to excel against the Bills, and I wouldn’t rule out the idea of building a double-stack with Mahomes. The rest of the wideouts are what will likely make or break your showdown lineups. The two stats that stuck out to me were that Watson ran a ton of routes and that Hardman saw some deep targets down the field last week. Because of that, I’ll give them the edge over the likes of MVS, Gray, and James.
The Chiefs’ defense is healthy and one of the best in the NFL. I love the way Allen plays, but he does tend to make a lot of questionable throws. There’s certainly a path for the Chiefs to generate some sacks and turnovers here. Kicker Harrison Butker made all 4 of his field goals in bad weather last week and is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I can’t envision a scenario where this game turns into an absolute rout for one of the teams. Ultimately, I’ll likely have more exposure to the Chiefs just because I could see most of the fantasy production on the Bills coming through Allen. I don’t mind the idea of playing Allen at MVP or CPT and then filling out the rest of the lineup with players from the Chiefs. Perhaps you pair Allen with a cheaper wideout such as Kincaid or Shakir and then load up on Kansas City’s side of the ball.
Bills-Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 23.90 | $12,200 | $18,300 | 1.96 | $17,500 | 1.37 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 20.46 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.93 | $15,000 | 1.36 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 20.32 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 2.12 | $12,500 | 1.63 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 17.19 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.65 | $13,500 | 1.27 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 16.70 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.90 | $14,000 | 1.19 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 15.69 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 2.01 | $11,500 | 1.36 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 15.67 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.91 | $12,000 | 1.31 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 10.55 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.65 | $10,000 | 1.06 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 7.88 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.46 | $9,000 | 0.88 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 7.64 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.53 | $8,500 | 0.90 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 7.08 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.48 | $9,500 | 0.75 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.52 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.63 | $9,000 | 0.72 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | 5.84 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 4.87 | $7,500 | 0.78 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 5.51 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.25 | $8,000 | 0.69 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 4.93 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.30 | $8,500 | 0.58 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 4.50 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.88 | $7,000 | 0.64 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | 3.69 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.42 | $7,500 | 0.49 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 3.58 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.05 | $8,000 | 0.45 |
| Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | 3.24 | $400 | $600 | 8.10 | $7,000 | 0.46 |
| Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | 2.47 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.12 | $6,000 | 0.41 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | 2.44 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.36 | $6,500 | 0.38 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | 2.27 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.81 | $6,500 | 0.35 |
| Richie James | KC | WR | 2.26 | $600 | $900 | 3.77 | $6,000 | 0.38 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 2.14 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.07 | $6,500 | 0.33 |
Fantasy Sleepers
- Dalton Kincaid: $6,400 DK / $10,000 FD*
A large portion of my DFS play this week hinges on how well Kincaid performs in this game. I tagged him as an Expert Play on the 4-game DraftKings slate and the 2-game FanDuel slate. My hope for showdown is that his price is expensive enough to keep ownership at a reasonable level. The Chiefs are extremely tough on wide receivers, especially when it comes to slowing down the opposing WR1. This could force more targets to Kincaid, who has already been a big part of the game plan.
Bills vs. Chiefs Player Pick’em
Josh Allen more than 42.5 rushing yards (1.69x) – Sleeper
Allen has at least 8 rushing attempts in 6 of his last 7 games. During that stretch, he’s rushed for at least 44 yards on four different occasions. The Chiefs have allowed the 9th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, and we saw Allen run 10 times in their first meeting of the season.
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