The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Bills vs. Jaguars
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bills vs. Jaguars, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Morning Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bills vs. Jaguars
For the second straight week, the Jaguars are playing in London. This is a bit of a tough spot for the Bills. Not only does this count as one of their home games, but they have to travel halfway across the world after beating a division rival in Week 4. Even though this is a neutral field, the Jaguars do have more London experience than any other team in the league. The spread is set at only 5.5 points, and the game features a total of 48.5 points.
Key Injuries
Dawson Knox – Questionable
Zay Jones – Questionable
Jamal Agnew – Questionable
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Jaguars have been one of the biggest pass-funnel matchups this season, ranking 4th in rush EPA and 15th in pass DVOA. Additionally, they have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, while holding running backs to the 10th-fewest fantasy points. Josh Allen doesn’t need a good matchup to dominate a slate, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. He’s coming off one of the best fantasy performances of any quarterback this season (39.5 DK points against the Dolphins). Given the matchup, how essential he is to this offense, and the nature of the slate, it’s hard to consider anyone else at Captain and MVP when it comes to cash games and small-field tournaments.
Stefon Diggs has been the leading target earner for the Bills (28%) and is coming off of a 6-catch, 120-yard, and 3-touchdown performance against the Dolphins. The Jaguars are very beatable through the air, and the Bills can’t afford to let off the gas given the close spread in this game. After Diggs, the targets are spread out a bit — Gabriel Davis (13%), Dalton Kincaid (12%), Dawson Knox (8%), and Deonte Harty (7%). For the first time all season, we saw Kincaid out-snap Knox in Week 4, so that’s something to keep an eye on moving forward. You can mix-and-match the ancillary wideouts in your Allen stacks.
James Cook has been solid on the ground this season. He nearly has 300 yards in rushing, which is good enough for the 7th-best mark in the NFL. We finally saw him get a goal-line carry in Week 4, and he was able to convert it for a touchdown. The problem is that he’s not used very much in the passing game, especially on third down and in the two-minute drill. This doesn’t mean he won’t have games with a handful of receptions, but Damien Harris and Latavius Murray will continue to be a thorn in his side. As noted earlier, this is a matchup that sets up better for the passing game, as Jacksonville is 7th in rush DVOA and 4th in rush EPA this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
The Jaguars have been an inconsistent team in the first four weeks, and that’s largely because of their quarterback. Trevor Lawrence caught fire in the second half of last season but is off to a slow start this season. He doesn’t have a game with more than 300 passing yards and only has 4 passing touchdowns in four games. We shouldn’t be overly concerned, as the talent is there and we know Doug Pederson usually has his offenses firing on all cylinders. The Bills do present a tough matchup, ranking in the top 3 in both pass DVOA and pass EPA. Lawrence is still a strong play for Showdown, but he’s not my favorite option for Captain and MVP.
After a great camp and a great start to his days in Jacksonville, Calvin Ridley has been awfully quiet over the last three games. He managed to catch a touchdown against the Falcons but only has 7 receptions on 17 targets over the last three games. He still leads the team in air yards share (35%) and does see a matchup boost with Tre’Davious White out for Buffalo, so perhaps he could make a strong tournament play here. Christian Kirk has been the leading receiver for Jacksonville in the last three weeks and seems to offer the safer floor at the moment. Zay Jones and Jamal Agnew are both questionable once again, so we’ll have to monitor their availability early Sunday morning. The Bills have held tight ends to the 7th-fewest fantasy points this season, but Evan Engram does possess a very high target share (20%) for a tight end.
Tank Bigsby was the talk of camp in the summer, but that hasn’t translated into much work during the regular season. He does have 2 goal-line touchdowns, but this backfield clearly belongs to Travis Etienne. He played a whopping 85% of snaps against the Falcons and is on pace to have the best receiving season in his career. He should be involved in the offense regardless of the game script, which is always a big positive for the running back position. The matchup isn’t anything to write home about, but the Bills are certainly worse against the run than they are against the pass.
Roster Construction Ideas
Let’s start by examining the potential onslaughts. There is certainly a path for the Bills to get out to an early lead and to lean on their defense against a Jacksonville offense that hasn’t exactly been clicking early in the season. You can make the argument to stack Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Cook, and a couple cheap pieces from the Bills. I have a harder time seeing the Jaguars onslaught working in this spot. Even if they manage to build a lead, they don’t have a shut-down pass defense and are facing one of the best quarterbacks in the league. If anything, a Jaguars lead would be beneficial for Allen and his fantasy production.
Allen is the easy click at both Captain and MVP, but there are paths for him not being the optimal play at the multiplier positions. If we see another Diggs breakout game or if one of the cheaper options has an outlier performance (specifically on DK), we could see that work. In large-field tournaments, I like the idea of using Ridley in the multiplier spots. It feels like the masses are giving up on him, but this spot sets up better for him than it looks on paper.
Bills-Jaguars DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 23.52 | $12,200 | $18,300 | 1.93 | $16,500 | 1.43 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 20.75 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.76 | $16,000 | 1.30 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 19.04 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.73 | $15,000 | 1.27 |
| Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 15.17 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.76 | $14,000 | 1.08 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 14.38 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.71 | $10,500 | 1.37 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAX | WR | 13.84 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.41 | $13,000 | 1.06 |
| Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | 12.76 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.93 | $10,000 | 1.28 |
| Evan Engram | JAX | TE | 11.38 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.96 | $8,500 | 1.34 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | WR | 10.19 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.42 | $12,500 | 0.82 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 8.33 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.67 | $7,000 | 1.19 |
| Zay Jones | JAX | WR | 8.01 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.43 | $8,000 | 1.00 |
| Brandon McManus | JAX | K | 7.68 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.83 | $9,000 | 0.85 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 7.67 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.60 | $9,000 | 0.85 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 6.67 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.76 | $7,500 | 0.89 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.13 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.33 | $9,500 | 0.65 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | 5.48 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.37 | $8,000 | 0.69 |
| Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | 5.02 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 4.18 | $6,000 | 0.84 |
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 3.64 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.14 | $8,500 | 0.43 |
| Tank Bigsby | JAX | RB | 3.24 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.47 | $7,500 | 0.43 |
| Jamal Agnew | JAX | WR | 2.14 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.14 | $7,000 | 0.31 |
| Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | 2.11 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.64 | $6,000 | 0.35 |
| Damien Harris | BUF | RB | 2.08 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 0.58 | $6,500 | 0.32 |
| Luke Farrell | JAX | TE | 1.43 | $400 | $600 | 3.58 | $6,000 | 0.24 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 1.12 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 0.80 | $6,000 | 0.19 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Dawson Knox – $3,800 DK / $5,700 FD
We finally got on track with the sleepers section of this article, as Logan Thomas put up a big game against the Bears on Thursday night. Let’s hope to sustain that momentum in the London game. My hope with this pick is that everyone sees the snap counts from last week and assumes Dalton Kincaid is now the clear TE1 in Buffalo. That’s obviously not the case, and Knox has been the more productive of the two this season. He’s significantly cheaper than Kincaid and draws a nice matchup, as the Jaguars have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Bills vs. Jaguars Player Props
Travis Etienne Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (1.80x) – Sleeper
Etienne is quietly on pace for 60 catches this season, which would easily break his career-high of 35 in a single season. He doesn’t have much competition on passing downs, and there’s a good chance the Jaguars are forced to air it out a bit more in this one. He has averaged 24 receiving yards per game this season.