The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Broncos vs. Chargers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Broncos vs. Chargers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Broncos vs. Chargers
It’s that time of year again. We have NFL games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. There’s nothing better, at least not in the sports world. The Broncos and Chargers have exceeded expectations so far this season and are both alive in the AFC playoff hunt. With the Chiefs running away with the division and only so many playoff spots available, this could realistically be the game that makes or breaks these teams’ postseason hopes. The game features a 3-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Jaleel McLaughlin – Questionable
Justin Herbert – Probable
Will Dissly – Questionable
JK Dobbins – Out
Hayden Hurst – Out
Denver Broncos Preview
After an 0-2 start, the Broncos have won 9 of their last 12 games and are now firmly in the playoff picture in the AFC. A win tonight would go a long way toward helping their chances of making the postseason. Bo Nix has enjoyed a tremendous rookie season and has put together a couple of ceiling performances for DFS (29 and 31 fantasy points). He’ll have a tough time putting up a ceiling effort against the Chargers, but he’s still viable in all formats. This season, Los Angeles has one of the best coverage grades from PFF and is 7th in EPA against the pass. Nix hasn’t run a ton recently, but he still has that ability. For that reason, he’s viable at MVP and CPT.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for Denver over the last 4 games:
Courtland Sutton: 25% target share, 50% air yards share, 31% first-read rate
Devaughn Vele: 13% target share, 18% air yards share, 19% first-read rate
Troy Franklin: 11% target share, 22% air yards share, 15% first-read rate
Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 6% target share, 4% air yards share, 6% first-read rate
I didn’t include any of the tight ends above, as the Broncos rotate Lucas Krull, Adam Trautman, and Nate Adkins. Over the last 3 games, they have all run a route on less than 30% of dropbacks. To make matters worse, the Chargers are 6th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. Courtland Sutton remains the clear WR1 in this offense, racking up a 25% target share and a 50% air yards share over the last 4 games. Devaughn Vele has had some nice outings recently, but Troy Franklin has similar underlying usage at a cheaper price point and potentially lower ownership. Lil’Jordan Humphrey is only $1,000 on DraftKings and still running a decent number of routes each week. I know Marvin Mims has big-play potential, but he’s only run a route on 27% of dropbacks in the last 4 games.
Over the last 4 games, Javonte Williams has taken over control of the backfield. During that stretch, he’s played on over 50% of the snaps and has run a route on 39% of dropbacks. Jaleel McLaughlin actually has more carries during that stretch, while Audric Estime has only played on 12% of the snaps. It’s tough to feel good about any of the three against the Chargers, who are 8th in PFF’s grades against the run and 7th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. I will note that McLaughlin is questionable, so his absence would make the other two a lot more appealing.
The Broncos’ D/ST has been terrific this season and is worth a look in large-field tournaments. In what could be a defensive battle, kicking points might be more valuable. I have plenty of interest in Will Lutz.
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Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Early in the season, the Chargers had one of the highest rush rates in the league. Justin Herbert was nursing a couple of injuries, and they were having a ton of success on the ground. With JK Dobbins out, the Chargers have been forced to air it out a bit more recently. Herbert has quietly topped 17 fantasy points in 6 of his last 9 games and has attempted at least 30 passes in 4 of the last 5 games. He draws a difficult matchup against the Broncos, who have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. He’s viable in all formats and has enough rushing upside to consider using him at MVP and CPT.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for Los Angeles over the last 4 games:
Ladd McConkey: 27% target share, 29% air yards share, 36% first-read rate
Josh Palmer: 17% target share, 35% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Quentin Johnston: 20% target share, 25% air yards share, 22% first-read rate
Stone Smartt (Week 15): 18% target share, 23% air yards share, 17% first-read rate
Will Dissly missed last week’s game and has not practiced this week. He’s officially listed as questionable, but there’s a good chance he misses another game. Stone Smartt had a huge role in his absence against the Buccaneers, racking up an 18% target share and a 23% air yards share. With Patrick Surtain locking down outside receivers, the Broncos force a lot of targets over the middle of the field. If Dissly is out again, Smartt will be one of the top value plays of the slate.
Ladd McConkey is the clear WR1 for the Chargers. Over the last 4 games, he has a 27% target share and a 36% first-read rate. He has lined up in the slot on 73% of snaps this season, which means he’ll avoid coverage from Surtain in most of this game. Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston have tougher matchups on the outside and are volatile players to begin with. When it comes to the Chargers wideouts, I prefer Smartt and McConkey.
Gus Edwards is technically the RB1 with Dobbins out, but he hasn’t had more than 10 carries in any of the last 5 games. His efficiency has not been good since returning from injury, and he’s not a major part of the passing game. It hasn’t been much better for Kimani Vidal. Given the struggles of this rushing attack and the matchup against the Broncos (7th in PFF’s grades against the run, 4th in EPA against the run), I’m not prioritizing either of these running backs.
The Chargers D/ST is facing a rookie quarterback at home. A case can certainly be made for them in tournaments. Kicker Cameron Dicker is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Unless Jaleel McLaughlin is ruled out, I won’t be prioritizing the running backs from either team. The Broncos have 3 running backs that they regularly use, while the Chargers have struggled mightily to run the ball without JK Dobbins. I like both quarterbacks and have my favorite wideout targets on both the Chargers (Ladd McConkey and Stone Smartt) and Broncos (Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin). Both kickers are viable in a game where the offenses could struggle in the red zone.
Broncos vs. Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 17.39 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.77 | $15,000 | 1.16 |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 17.01 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.81 | $13,500 | 1.26 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 16.87 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.69 | $15,500 | 1.09 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 15.86 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.65 | $14,000 | 1.13 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 9.47 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.13 | $11,500 | 0.82 |
| Stone Smartt | LAC | TE | 9.41 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 2.24 | $7,500 | 1.25 |
| Gus Edwards | LAC | RB | 9.20 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.31 | $12,500 | 0.74 |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC | RB | 9.10 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.34 | $7,000 | 1.30 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 8.36 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.10 | $11,000 | 0.76 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 8.29 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.26 | $8,000 | 1.04 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 8.19 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.86 | $7,500 | 1.09 |
| Devaughn Vele | DEN | WR | 7.62 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.91 | $9,500 | 0.80 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 7.43 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.38 | $8,500 | 0.87 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 7.23 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.13 | $10,000 | 0.72 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 6.91 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.38 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 6.77 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.30 | $8,500 | 0.80 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 6.68 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.39 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 6.15 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.05 | $7,000 | 0.88 |
| Audric Estime | DEN | RB | 4.01 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 0.72 | $8,000 | 0.50 |
| DJ Chark | LAC | WR | 3.39 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.70 | $6,000 | 0.57 |
| Lucas Krull | DEN | TE | 2.79 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.33 | $5,500 | 0.51 |
| Tucker Fisk | LAC | TE | 2.35 | $600 | $900 | 3.92 | $5,000 | 0.47 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | 2.29 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.29 | $6,000 | 0.38 |
| Derius Davis | LAC | WR | 2.12 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.65 | $5,500 | 0.39 |
| Nate Adkins | DEN | TE | 1.71 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.71 | $6,500 | 0.26 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 1.47 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 0.41 | $6,500 | 0.23 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Cameron Dicker: $5,400 DK / $8,500 FD
For whatever reason, kickers tend to have their best games of the season when I put them as sleepers in this article. Don’t hold me to it, but I love the spot for Cameron Dicker. The Chargers are playing at home and facing a defense that is tough in red zone. More importantly, the Chargers have struggled to run the ball in recent weeks. This could create a lot of 3rd-and-long situations, especially on Denver’s side of the field. Dicker is one of the best kickers in the game.
Broncos vs. Chargers Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-21
Stone Smartt more than 3.5 receptions (1.65x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I’m writing this before the official news on Will Dissly, but he has yet to practice this week, so I am going to assume he’s going to be out. In his absence last week, Stone Smartt caught 5-of-6 targets for 50 yards. Given the matchup against Patrick Surtain and the Broncos, I could see more targets funneling over the middle of the field to Smartt and Ladd McConkey.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus