The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Browns vs. Broncos
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Browns vs. Broncos, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Browns vs. Broncos
Happy Monday (if there is such a thing). We are inching closer to Christmas and closer to the end of the regular season. If you asked most NFL fans what the record of these teams would be at this point of the season, most would have said the records would be flipped. The Browns are only 3-8 in the standings, while the Broncos are 7-5. Based on most defensive metrics, we have 2 of the top 10 defenses squaring off in Denver. This game features a 6.5-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Cedric Tillman – Out
Josh Reynolds – Questionable
Cleveland Browns Preview
The Browns have improved offensively since moving to Jameis Winston and are coming off an impressive win against the Steelers. Winston doesn’t offer a ton of rushing upside, but he has thrown for over 300 yards in two of his four starts. He has a tough matchup in Denver, as the Broncos are 8th in pressure rate, 1st in EPA against the pass, and 5th in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks. The main positive for Winston is that he’s been excellent against the blitz (Denver has blitzed at the 4th-highest rate). He’s a solid option in all formats, but I prefer him as a FLEX/UTIL play rather than at the multiplier positions.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Browns with Winston under center this season:
Cedric Tillman: 19% target share, 27% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Jerry Jeudy: 22% target share, 29% air yards share, 25% first-read rate
Elijah Moore: 21% target share, 28% air yards share, 23% first-read rate
David Njoku: 17% target share, 8% air yards share, 15% first-read rate
With Cedric Tillman out, this opens up 19% of the team’s targets and 27% of the team’s air yards. Jerry Jeudy will not only be the obvious WR1 for the Browns tonight, but he has the revenge narrative in his back pocket. This will be the first time he’s played against his former team. The downside is that he runs most of his routes outside (35% slot rate), so he’ll see a lot of Patrick Surtain in this matchup. Elijah Moore has run around two-thirds of his routes from the slot since the Amari Cooper trade, so he should avoid coverage from Surtain for most of this game. Both receivers are viable, but Moore is my preferred option despite the revenge narrative for Jeudy.
Jamari Thrash and Kadarius Toney should see extra snaps with Tillman out and are both viable punts on DraftKings. Given the matchup (and pass rush of Denver), we could see a lot of two tight end sets from the Browns in this one. Jordan Akins could be the sneaky value play we need on this slate. David Njoku hasn’t run many routes down the field with Winston at the helm, but he should see around a 20% target share. For what it’s worth, the Broncos have been worse at defending tight ends (10th) than wide receivers (5th).
Nick Chubb scored 2 touchdowns last week against the Steelers, but that masked the fact that he lacked efficiency once again. He has averaged a measly 3.0 yards per carry this season. With very little work in the passing game, he needs at least 1 touchdown to find his way onto the optimal lineup. It’s a tough matchup, as the Broncos are top 10 in EPA against the pass and PFF’s grades against the run. On a per-dollar basis, I prefer Jerome Ford. He will see more work in the passing game if the Browns fall behind early.
The Browns have been able to get pressure on the quarterback this season but are priced up for a matchup on the road. They aren’t a priority for me on this slate. Kicking points could be more valuable in a low-scoring game, which makes Dustin Hopkins an interesting value play.
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Denver Broncos Preview
After losing their first 2 games, the Broncos have won 7 of their last 10 games and are firmly in the playoff race in the AFC. A large part of their success has been the play of Bo Nix, who has been a good real-life quarterback and fantasy quarterback. He squares off against the Browns, who are 18th in EPA against the pass and 12th in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks. Given Nix’s rushing upside, he deserves strong consideration at MVP and CPT.
Let’s take a look at Denver’s wideout usage so far this season:
Courtland Sutton: 23% target share, 42% air yards share, 31% first-read rate
Devaughn Vele: 14% target share, 15% air yards share, 18% first-read rate
I only included the usage for two wideouts, as it’s a mixed bag with the rest of them. The Broncos like to play three different tight ends (Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull, and Nate Adkins) and they rotate in their third receiver. After practicing in full this week, there’s a good chance Josh Reynolds will be back in the lineup. This would cut into the playing time of Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Marvin Mims, and Troy Franklin. I don’t have a strong take on any of the cheap wideouts for the Broncos.
Courtland Sutton has had elite usage all season. In the first 5 games of the season, he had the largest gap of any receiver between his expected fantasy production and his actual fantasy production. Since then, he’s really turned his season around. The Browns give up a lot of big plays in the passing game, which makes Sutton a strong option in all formats. Devaughn Vele has come on strong in the last 2 games, catching 10-of-14 targets for 146 yards.
It’s anyone’s guess as to who will be the most productive player in Denver’s backfield each week. Javonte Williams has led the team in carries in 8 of 9 games this season, but he still cedes work to both Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin. One thing is clear after doing research for this game — the Broncos love a good timeshare (running back, wide receiver, tight end, etc.). The Browns are 2nd in PFF’s grades against the run and 7th in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season.
One of the longest-running jokes in NFL DFS is that the best correlation play with Jameis Winston is the opposing defense. He has a knack for throwing pick-sixes and then racking up stats the rest of the game. The Broncos can put pressure on the quarterback and are playing as home favorites, so I will keep them in my player pool. Kicker Will Lutz has been solid all season and could be one of the top value plays given the low total in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is an extremely difficult slate. The Browns should have the more condensed offense (Cedric Tillman is out), but the Broncos are sizable favorites at home. I will be prioritizing both quarterbacks, Elijah Moore, and Courtland Sutton on this slate. From there, I’ll see how much salary I have left to spend on the remaining roster spots. When it comes to kicking and defenses, I prefer the Broncos, as the expected game script sets up better for them than the Browns.
Browns vs. Broncos DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 19.05 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.91 | $16,500 | 1.15 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | QB | 14.36 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.50 | $15,000 | 0.96 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 13.89 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.36 | $14,000 | 0.99 |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 11.86 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.32 | $11,000 | 1.08 |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | RB | 11.13 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.18 | $13,000 | 0.86 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 10.24 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.51 | $11,500 | 0.89 |
| David Njoku | CLE | TE | 9.72 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.16 | $12,000 | 0.81 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 9.08 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.68 | $9,500 | 0.96 |
| Elijah Moore | CLE | WR | 8.85 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.13 | $10,000 | 0.89 |
| Devaughn Vele | DEN | WR | 8.83 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.38 | $9,000 | 0.98 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 7.37 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.42 | $9,500 | 0.78 |
| Dustin Hopkins | CLE | K | 6.93 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.39 | $8,500 | 0.82 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 6.53 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.33 | $7,500 | 0.87 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 6.43 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.34 | $7,000 | 0.92 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | 5.96 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.86 | $6,500 | 0.92 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | RB | 5.86 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.33 | $8,000 | 0.73 |
| Browns | CLE | DST | 5.01 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.39 | $8,500 | 0.59 |
| Jordan Akins | CLE | TE | 4.92 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.05 | $7,000 | 0.70 |
| Jamari Thrash | CLE | WR | 4.56 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 4.56 | $5,500 | 0.83 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 4.44 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.48 | $7,500 | 0.59 |
| Audric Estime | DEN | RB | 4.13 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.03 | $8,000 | 0.52 |
| Lucas Krull | DEN | TE | 3.05 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.54 | $5,500 | 0.55 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 2.84 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.78 | $6,500 | 0.44 |
| Kadarius Toney | CLE | WR | 2.04 | $200 | $300 | 10.20 | $5,000 | 0.41 |
| Pierre Strong | CLE | RB | 1.49 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.06 | $6,000 | 0.25 |
| Nate Adkins | DEN | TE | 1.19 | $600 | $900 | 1.98 | $6,000 | 0.20 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Broncos D/ST: $5,400 DK / $9,500 FD
The Broncos have one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL and love to blitz. While Jameis Winston has been solid against the blitz this season, he has been mistake-prone throughout his career. If the Broncos can build a lead early, they will face a lot of pass attempts from the Browns. When looking for a defense, we want ones that can generate pressure and one that will be facing a lot of pass attempts.
Browns vs. Broncos Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 25-17
Bo Nix more than 19.5 rushing yards (1.76x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We’ve lost two primetime picks in a row, so we need to get back on track. We haven’t seen much rushing from Bo Nix in recent weeks, but that’s largely because the Broncos have gotten out to huge leads. I expect tonight’s game to stay competitive throughout. Nix has rushed for at least 25 yards in 6 of 12 games this season. The matchup sets up well for him, as the Browns have allowed the 7th-most rushing attempts and the 11th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus