The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Chargers vs. Bears
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Chargers vs. Bears, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chargers vs. Bears
We are back for another Sunday Night Football matchup, this time between the Chargers and Bears. I am writing this before the main slate kicks off, so I am hoping to have some extra funds in the bankroll by the time this game rolls around. And obviously, I am hoping the same for all of you.
The Chargers and Bears are two teams that are on the ropes in terms of making the playoffs in their respective conferences. They each have two wins to their name this season, so this is a pivotal game for playoff hopes (especially for the Chargers). This game features a 9.5-point spread and a 46-point total.
Key Injuries
Justin Fields – Out
Joshua Palmer – Questionable
Gerald Everett – Questionable
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Justin Herbert is so talented that we always give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the Chargers not living up to expectations. However, even the truest Charger fans out there have to admit that he hasn’t played his best football this season. That said, he’s still been very productive from a DFS standpoint, topping 20 fantasy points in five of six games. This week he squares off against the Bears, who are dead last in pressure rate, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Herbert is close to a must-play in showdown and deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
Herbert is already without Mike Williams and now two more of his wideouts are dealing with injuries. Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett are both listed as game-time decisions. They are essentially the second and third options behind Keenan Allen, so a lot of usage would open up if one or both end up being out tonight. Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis would likely round out the receiving room in three-receiver sets and Donald Parham would take over as the clear TE1. The only wideout that we can feel confident in until we get an injury update is Allen. He has ridiculous target (30%) and air yards (33%) shares and is facing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
We haven’t been able to say this for a long time, but Austin Ekeler has underwhelmed in back-to-back games. He had 18 touches for 62 yards against the Cowboys in Week 6 and had 15 touches for 46 yards against the Chiefs in Week 7. He didn’t score in either game, so perhaps the field will be less than enthused to play him on this showdown slate. Personally, I see this as a great bounce-back spot for one of the most productive players in DFS over the last few seasons. The Bears have been middling against the run this season, but have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to running backs (they have allowed the most receiving yards to the position).
While Tyson Bagent has been serviceable, he hasn’t been asked to do much in his first two NFL games. If the Chargers are able to build a big lead and force the Bears to air it out, they should be able to get pressure on him and potentially force some turnovers. The Chargers D/ST and kicker Cameron Dicker are both viable for showdown.
Chicago Bears Preview
Justin Fields might try to play next week, but has already been ruled out of this game against the Chargers. Tyson Bagent led the Bears to a win over the Raiders in Week 7, but has not been asked to throw the ball down the field. He has 31 completions on the season and only 245 passing yards. The Bears might let him loose against the Chargers, but there’s no guarantee of that happening. It’s certainly a good matchup, as the Chargers are 28th in DVOA against the pass and dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Bagent is viable, but he’s far from a priority, and I wouldn’t consider using him at MVP or CPT.
The Bears’ pass catchers are obviously tied to their quarterback, so your interest in them should hinge on your interest in Bagent. If the Bears keep the handcuffs on him again and he only throws for 175 yards, it will be hard for these pass catchers to have big fantasy outings. D.J. Moore does seem to have a high floor, as we’ve seen his aDOT plummet over the last two games. That’s not all bad in full-PPR scoring, as he’s caught 13-of-17 targets during that stretch. Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney will round out the receiving corps, although the latter is a bit riskier given the fact that he runs most of his routes down the field. Tyler Scott and Velus Jones should both see a handful of snaps if you want to consider using them as punts on DraftKings.
I was one of many that loaded up on D’Onta Foreman in Week 6 and then faded him in Week 7. It was painful watching him rack up 120 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns against the Raiders. This has been a difficult backfield to predict all season and now Roschon Johnson is set to return from his concussion. He was expected to be the RB1 in Chicago by season’s end, but the Bears will likely split the work with Foreman and Johnson this week. The Chargers have been a solid matchup on the ground, ranking 24th in DVOA against the run and 25th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Even after that deep dive, I still don’t know whom I want to play on the Bears. I do know that I want to fade their defense, as they are dead last in pressure rate this season and 9.5-point underdogs on the road. This is a spot where the Bears could be down big and might have to opt for touchdowns over field goals in the second half, which could hurt the value of Cairo Santos.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Even if you like the Bears in this game, they are a tough team to trust when it comes to DFS. They aren’t letting their quarterback throw the ball down the field, and their rushing attack will likely be a split between D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson. My favorite build is using four or five players from the Chargers and bringing it back with one pass catcher on Chicago (I prefer DJ Moore or Cole Kmet). This build becomes even easier if Joshua Palmer and/or Gerald Everett end up being out.
Chargers-Bears DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 21.92 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.83 | $17,000 | 1.29 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 21.89 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.86 | $16,500 | 1.33 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 19.62 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.75 | $14,500 | 1.35 |
| D.J. Moore | CHI | WR | 16.32 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.77 | $12,000 | 1.36 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | QB | 15.27 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.70 | $12,500 | 1.22 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 13.02 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.86 | $10,500 | 1.24 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | 12.11 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.83 | $8,500 | 1.42 |
| D’Onta Foreman | CHI | RB | 10.18 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.27 | $13,000 | 0.78 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 9.10 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.63 | $10,000 | 0.91 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 8.36 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.61 | $9,000 | 0.93 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 7.48 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.29 | $9,500 | 0.79 |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | WR | 7.42 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.86 | $8,000 | 0.93 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | TE | 6.95 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.39 | $7,500 | 0.93 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 6.47 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.47 | $9,000 | 0.72 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 4.99 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.04 | $8,000 | 0.62 |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | RB | 4.51 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 0.84 | $8,500 | 0.53 |
| Donald Parham | LAC | TE | 4.48 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.07 | $7,000 | 0.64 |
| Tyler Scott | CHI | WR | 4.39 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 3.66 | $7,000 | 0.63 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 3.80 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.12 | $8,500 | 0.45 |
| Derius Davis | LAC | WR | 2.67 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.34 | $5,500 | 0.49 |
| Velus Jones | CHI | WR | 2.11 | $200 | $300 | 10.55 | $6,500 | 0.32 |
| Robert Tonyan | CHI | TE | 1.22 | $200 | $300 | 6.10 | $5,500 | 0.22 |
| Khari Blasingame | CHI | RB | 0.81 | $200 | $300 | 4.05 | $5,000 | 0.16 |
| Stone Smartt | LAC | TE | 0.80 | $200 | $300 | 4.00 | $5,000 | 0.16 |
| Isaiah Spiller | LAC | RB | 0.74 | $200 | $300 | 3.70 | $5,500 | 0.13 |
| Darrynton Evans | CHI | RB | 0.71 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.36 | $6,500 | 0.11 |
| Marcedes Lewis | CHI | TE | 0.66 | $400 | $600 | 1.65 | $5,000 | 0.13 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Chargers D/ST: $5,800 DK / $9,500 FD
Even though defenses have been dominant in showdown contests this season, I doubt many will look to force the Chargers into lineups. They have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. The positives are that they are playing at home, they are 9.5-point underdogs, they are facing a team that takes the third most sacks, and they are facing a rookie quarterback who has very little experience in the NFL. The pros outweigh the cons for me, especially if you are using them as part of a Chargers onslaught.
Chargers vs. Bears Player Props
Cameron Dicker more than 1.5 field goals made (1.91x) – Sleeper
The prop pick kept rolling on Thursday night with the over on Dalton Kincaid. We’ll look to keep the streak going on Sunday Night with Cameron Dicker. The Chargers haven’t attempted more than one field goal in any of the last four games, which is very unlike the Chargers. They are typically a team that can move the ball at will and then struggle once they get down near the red zone. Last season, Dicker was almost a cheat code for two or more field goals. Given the spread (-9.5) and the matchup against the Bears, I like Dicker to get back on track in this one.