The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Chargers vs. Cowboys
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Chargers vs. Cowboys, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chargers vs. Cowboys
It is Monday and that means we have a good primetime game to look forward to. As we saw last night with the Bills and Giants, anything can happen on these island games. The Bills were able to pull it out, but the Giants probably should have won that game. We have two evenly matched teams squaring off on Monday night. While this is a home game for the Chargers, I fully expect Cowboys fans to fill the stadium. They travel well, and Los Angeles has never had a great home-field advantage. This game features a 1.5-point spread and a 51-point total.
Key Injuries
Josh Palmer – Questionable
Donald Parham – Questionable
Peyton Hendershot – Out
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
The Chargers are 2-2 entering this game, but they’ve won their last two games and are coming off of a bye week. As far as their matchup goes this week, this is one of the tougher ones imaginable. The Cowboys are 12th or better in pass DVOA, dropback EPA, rush DVOA, and rush EPA. And those numbers would be even better if they didn’t struggle to stop the Niners last week. The positives are that the Chargers have had two weeks to prepare and that Kellen Moore should know his former team’s tendencies.
No matter how you think his season is going, I bet Justin Herbert has been more productive than expected through the first four weeks. If you don’t believe me, go pull up his game log. In the season’s first four games, he scored 21, 25, 32, and 24 fantasy points. He’ll have his hands full in a matchup against the Cowboys, but we have him projected for the second most fantasy points of any player in this game. Quarterbacks are always viable on showdown slates, and Herbert stands out as a solid MVP and Captain candidate.
Austin Ekeler was a full participant in practice this week and said that he had a 99 percent chance of suiting up. He has been taken off the injury report and is expected to be a full-go against the Cowboys. There’s a chance his workload is limited a bit, but he should still lead this backfield in touches. We know he’s an electric option in the passing game and a big threat to score touchdowns near the goal-line. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Cowboys have been worse against running backs (14th) than they have been against quarterbacks (7th) and wide receivers (3rd). Ekeler is a strong option, while Joshua Kelley is an easy fade since he’s priced up in case he was drawing another start.
Keenan Allen was a fade by many in season-long drafts, but I can assure you those rosters are not fairing well through the first five weeks of the season. Allen has a massive target share (31%) and is currently sixth in the NFL in receptions (36) and fifth in receiving yards per game (108.5). With Mike Williams out, Allen is primed to have a monster season if he can stay healthy. He tends to have a high floor regardless of the matchup and is a good bet for 10+ targets in this one. In the first full game without Williams, Josh Palmer ran a route on 31 of 32 dropbacks. He’s the clear WR2 in this offense and will have a number of big games the rest of the season.
Quentin Johnston is a talented rookie who saw a massive spike in snaps and routes in Week 4. He’s not as cheap as I had hoped, but that should keep ownership to a reasonable level. There’s likely an easier path for him to succeed in a softer matchup, but he can be added to your large-field tournament player pool. We know Herbert likes his tight ends, but unfortunately, Donald Parham and Gerald Everett are splitting playing time and cutting into each other’s fantasy production. This doesn’t mean we can’t play them in tournaments, but they are essentially a coin-flip at this point.
The Chargers defense has plenty of talent on their roster, but it has not translated into much on the football field. They are 22nd in total DVOA, 25th in total EPA, and 24th in pressure rate. Sure, Dak Prescott can have a bad game every now and then, but there’s nothing that stands out for the Chargers defense here. I always like kickers in showdown and there are few better names than Cameron Dicker.
Dallas Cowboys Preview
The Cowboys always seem to have a few duds each season, and they are coming off of one against the Niners in Week 5. It was a battle between two of the best teams in the NFC, but Dallas ended up losing the game by 32 points. They are a better team than they showed and will look to bounce back this week against the Chargers. This matchup is a solid one, as the Chargers are 25th in total defensive EPA and are ranked 26th or worse in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.
Dak Prescott used to be one of the most productive quarterbacks in DFS, but that is no longer the case. On the season, he has yet to top 20 fantasy points and he has only averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game. The absence of Kellen Moore has certainly been felt, as he’s not throwing the ball down the field much. On top of that, his scrambling numbers continue to trend in the wrong direction (45 rushing yards this season). He’s viable tonight given the matchup and the fact that this is showdown, but he’s not my favorite option at MVP and Captain.
Tony Pollard got off to a hot start in the first three games, but is coming off of single-digit fantasy performances in each of the last two weeks. The touch totals have dipped recently, but that’s because the Cowboys have been involved in two blowouts (one win, one loss). He’s still one of the top running backs in expected fantasy points per game and tonight he faces the Chargers, who are ranked 28th in rush DVOA. It’s also worth noting that the Chargers have allowed the ninth most receptions to running backs. This is a great bounce-back spot for Pollard.
One of my favorite narratives in the NFL is the squeaky wheel narrative. CeeDee Lamb was not happy about his target share in last week’s loss to the Niners and more often than not, offenses look to appease their star players the next week. The Chargers have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, which sets up extremely well for Lamb. I’m expecting more of a Week 2 performance (11/143) than what we’ve seen the last three games. This might be a hot take, but I’m actually prioritizing Pollard and Lamb over Prescott tonight.
There are big question marks with the rest of the wideouts. Brandin Cooks has averaged a paltry 3.8 yards per target this season, suggesting he has lost a step or that the Cowboys aren’t using his speed properly. Michael Gallup is second on the team in route share (76%), but has only seen a 13% target share. Given the $2,600 price difference on DraftKings, I’ll take my chances with the cheaper Gallup. Jake Ferguson is starting to run more routes and already has 10 redzone targets this season, but he does draw the toughest individual matchup of anyone on the Cowboys (he’ll face Derwin James on many routes). The $200 DraftKings difference-maker could be Luke Schoonmaker, who saw an uptick in snaps and routes last week with Peyton Hendershot out.
The Cowboys have the highest pressure rate in the NFL and the Chargers are right around league average in sacks allowed per game. There’s a path for the Cowboys D/ST to be on the optimal lineup this evening, but they are far from a priority. Brandon Aubrey has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game and has taken advantage of many stalled drives from the Cowboys in the redzone.
Lineup Construction Ideas
The three building blocks for me in this game are going to be Justin Herbert, Tony Pollard, and CeeDee Lamb. I generally start with both quarterbacks and build from there, but I like some of his weapons a little more than Dak Prescott. We’ve seen defenses dominate these primetime slates all season, which has led to inflated price points and inflated ownership. In this particular spot, my plan is to fade both defenses. In terms of value, my favorites are the kickers, Michael Gallup, and Luke Schoonmaker.
Chargers-Cowboys DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 22.70 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 2.14 | $16,000 | 1.42 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 21.17 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.96 | $15,500 | 1.37 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | RB | 21.03 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 2.19 | $14,000 | 1.50 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 19.52 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.95 | $13,000 | 1.50 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 19.45 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.74 | $16,500 | 1.18 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 17.85 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.98 | $14,500 | 1.23 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 10.84 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.55 | $11,000 | 0.99 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 10.25 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.97 | $8,500 | 1.21 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | 9.41 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.74 | $7,500 | 1.25 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 8.20 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.93 | $8,000 | 1.03 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 7.80 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.56 | $9,000 | 0.87 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | TE | 7.79 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.69 | $7,500 | 1.04 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 7.78 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.85 | $8,000 | 0.97 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 7.47 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.70 | $9,000 | 0.83 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 5.59 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.47 | $10,000 | 0.56 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 5.08 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.54 | $7,000 | 0.73 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 4.79 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.50 | $8,500 | 0.56 |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | RB | 4.45 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 0.70 | $9,500 | 0.47 |
| Donald Parham | LAC | TE | 3.78 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.72 | $7,000 | 0.54 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 2.54 | $200 | $300 | 12.70 | $6,000 | 0.42 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.14 | $200 | $300 | 10.70 | $5,500 | 0.39 |
| Deuce Vaughn | DAL | RB | 1.94 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.94 | $6,500 | 0.30 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 1.67 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.04 | $6,500 | 0.26 |
| Derius Davis | LAC | WR | 1.20 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 0.86 | $5,500 | 0.22 |
| Isaiah Spiller | LAC | RB | 1.03 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.43 | $5,500 | 0.19 |
| Stone Smartt | LAC | TE | 0.90 | $200 | $300 | 4.50 | $5,000 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Quentin Johnston: $4,200 DK / $8,000 FD
On lineups where I can’t afford Keenan Allen or Josh Palmer, I’m certainly fine getting to Johnston as my lone Chargers wideout. I suppose you can use him in double-stacks with Justin Herbert as well. In the first full game without Mike Williams, Johnston ran a route on 71% of dropbacks. While we could see more 12-personnel from the Chargers in order to slow down the Cowboys’ pass rush, Johnston should still see plenty of snaps at a cheap price point and low ownership.
Chargers vs. Cowboys Player Props
CeeDee Lamb over 5.5 receptions (1.77x) – Sleeper
The squeaky wheel is the one narrative that I trust in NFL DFS. Lamb was frustrated with his target share against the Niners and that’s now been a trend for three straight games. This is arguably his best matchup to date (Chargers are 31st in FP allowed to wide receivers) and the Cowboys need to get the ball in the hands of one of their best players. I’m fine with the over on the yardage or the receptions props for Lamb tonight.