The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Broncos
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Chiefs vs. Broncos, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chiefs vs. Broncos
It’s always good when Thursday rolls around because that means we have an NFL game to look forward to watching. The Chiefs and Broncos are division rivals, but are two teams that are seemingly headed in opposite directions. The Chiefs are coming off of a Super Bowl win and are off to another nice start this season, while the Broncos have been a dumpster fire for the second straight season. The spread in this game (10.5 points) feels a tad low, but the Chiefs have had issues covering large spreads in recent years.
Fun fact — the last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was on September 15, 2015. It’s been almost 3,000 days. Pretty wild, right?
Key Injuries
Travis Kelce – Questionable
Greg Dulcich – Questionable
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
The Chiefs have a top-five passing offense and a top-15 rushing offense this season, yet they haven’t been a great team to target for fantasy. They have too many players splitting work at key positions. The one player that we don’t have to worry about in this offense is Patrick Mahomes. He’s yet to have a breakout game, yet he’s still managed to top 19 fantasy points in four of the first five weeks of the season. He will square off against the Broncos, who are on pace to have the worst defensive DVOA season in NFL history. They are dead last in dropback EPA as well, and the next closest team isn’t particularly close. Mahomes is as close to a must-play as you are going to find.
Over the last couple of weeks, Isiah Pacheco has really established himself as the RB1 in this offense. He played on over 50% of snaps in both outings and racked up solid touch (40) and yardage (212) totals during that stretch. The Broncos are historically bad against the pass and aren’t much better against the run. Through the first five games, they are ranked 31st in both rush DVOA and rush EPA. As crazy as it sounds, Pacheco might be the safest option to pair with Mahomes, even though the two don’t correlate particularly well. He’ll have a path to 20 touches as a 10.5-point home favorite.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire only has six carries in the last two games combined and is an afterthought despite his cheap price point. His path to the optimal lineup would likely be racking up points in garbage time. Jerick McKinnon is always a threat to score a touchdown, but he doesn’t have more than five touches in any game this season.
The big injury to monitor leading up to lock is the availability of Travis Kelce. He suffered a low-ankle sprain against the Vikings and had to leave the game briefly. He was able to return and ended up having a big game, but his status is still in doubt for Thursday night. He’s trending toward playing, but the Chiefs could opt to sit him or limit his reps given the large spread of the game. Seeing as how the Broncos can’t stop the pass, they have naturally been bad at defending tight ends.
It’s a toss up when it comes to the rest of the Chiefs’ wideouts. Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justyn Ross all rotate into the game and all tend to play on less than 50% of snaps. Rice leads the receivers in target share, but that sits at a paltry 13% on the season. I expect one or even two of these receivers to have a nice game against the Broncos, so mixing and matching them throughout lineups is probably the best way to approach this. And this is a Thursday game, so don’t be surprised if one of the backup tight ends (Noah Gray, Blake Bell) somehow finds the endzone.
The defense is firmly in play as well, as the Broncos have allowed the third-highest pressure rate on the season and will likely be trailing in this game. I have no issue targeting Harrison Butker, especially since the Chiefs are such large favorites against a bad defense.
Denver Broncos Preview
Even though we all hated on Nathanial Hackett last season, it was good to see him get a win against his former team after some of the comments Sean Payton made in the offseason. Denver has shelled out a ton of money to Russell Wilson and to coaches and so far, it has not worked. The good news is that this should be a pass-heavy game script for Wilson. The bad news is that the matchup is below-average, as the Chiefs are ranked 10th in pass DVOA and fifth in pass EPA this season. Wilson is obviously in play here, but I will note that a lot of his production this season has come in garbage time.
Jaleel McLaughlin looked great in his elevated role last week, but we are unlikely to see much of him in this game. Javonte Williams was able to practice in full on Tuesday and Wednesday, so he’ll be back in the lineup on Thursday. The way to beat the Chiefs is certainly on the ground, as they are 29th in rush EPA this season. The problem is that Williams cedes a lot of the passing-down work to Samaje Perine. I’m not forcing any of these backs into lineups, but I would side with Perine if forced to roster one.
Much like the Chiefs, the Broncos have rolled out a bunch of different receivers this season. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Mims, Brandon Johnson, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey all see snaps on a weekly basis. For the time being, Sutton (19%) and Jeudy (19%) have been soaking up most of the targets. The Chiefs have been fairly average at defending wide receivers this season, but do tend to perform well against WR1s (see Justin Jefferson last week). I’ll side with Jeudy, as he had a lot of success against Kansas City last season (115 yards and three touchdowns).
Greg Dulcich was activated off injured reserve and was able to practice in full on Wednesday. It’s looking like he will suit up for the first time this season. He will still split work with Adam Trautman, but he should be the clear TE1 for the Broncos in the next few weeks. The matchup is decent, as the Chiefs have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Crazy things happen every week in the NFL, but I am not rostering this all-time bad defense on the road against the Chiefs. If I lose because of it, I am just fine turning the page and moving on to the main slate in Week 6. I’m not too interested in Will Lutz either, as the Broncos might be down and may not settle for field goals.
Roster Construction Ideas
The obvious build is going to be a Chiefs stack with Russell Wilson and one of his receivers. In a vacuum, this is my favorite build. However, you might not be able to differentiate enough from the field in tournaments. My favorite duo from the Chiefs is Mahomes and Isiah Pacheco. While the latter isn’t that involved in the passing game, we’ve already seen these two have big games together this season. Playing these two can potentially capture all of the Chiefs’ touchdowns. If you add one of the wideouts and bring it back with three Broncos players, you might have a slightly different construction than the masses.
The other interesting build in my eyes is to target a Broncos player not named Russell Wilson at MVP and Captain. Between Mahomes, Wilson, Pacheco, and Travis Kelce, almost all of the MVP and Captain ownership will go to one of these four players. If you put Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy in one of these spots, you can afford to eat chalk with the rest of the lineup.
Always be thinking about ways to differentiate from the field in these showdown contests. I don’t pretend to have all the answers, but I want to emphasize the importance of a unique construction.
Chiefs-Broncos DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 24.56 | $12,800 | $19,200 | 1.92 | $18,000 | 1.36 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 20.50 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.86 | $14,000 | 1.46 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | 18.02 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.88 | $15,000 | 1.20 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 16.25 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.73 | $13,500 | 1.20 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 13.05 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.45 | $11,000 | 1.19 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 10.31 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.32 | $11,500 | 0.90 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 10.07 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.40 | $10,500 | 0.96 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 8.55 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.53 | $9,500 | 0.90 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 8.28 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.73 | $9,000 | 0.92 |
| Samaje Perine | DEN | RB | 7.41 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.48 | $9,000 | 0.82 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 6.85 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.63 | $8,000 | 0.86 |
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | RB | 6.70 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.29 | $7,500 | 0.89 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 6.56 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.03 | $8,500 | 0.77 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 6.25 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.36 | $7,500 | 0.83 |
| Greg Dulcich | DEN | TE | 5.79 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.81 | $7,500 | 0.77 |
| Skyy Moore | KC | WR | 5.75 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.06 | $7,500 | 0.77 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 5.52 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.25 | $7,000 | 0.79 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | 5.20 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.53 | $7,000 | 0.74 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 4.96 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.77 | $7,000 | 0.71 |
| Justyn Ross | KC | WR | 4.53 | $600 | $900 | 7.55 | $6,000 | 0.76 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 4.12 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 0.59 | $10,000 | 0.41 |
| Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | 3.67 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 0.92 | $8,000 | 0.46 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 3.42 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.55 | $6,500 | 0.53 |
| Brandon Johnson | DEN | WR | 3.37 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.81 | $7,000 | 0.48 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | 3.31 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.31 | $6,500 | 0.51 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 3.06 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.02 | $7,500 | 0.41 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | 1.45 | $200 | $300 | 7.25 | $6,000 | 0.24 |
| Blake Bell | KC | TE | 0.89 | $200 | $300 | 4.45 | $6,500 | 0.14 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jerry Jeudy at Captain and MVP: $13,500 DK / $11,000 FD
Listen, if you are only building one lineup and putting it into cash games or single-entry tournaments, this probably isn’t the best path to take. However, if you are going after some of these large prize pools, being contrarian at Captain and MVP could separate your lineups from the pack. Jeudy played on a season-high 86% of the snaps in Week 5 and had no problem scoring fantasy points against the Chiefs last season. There’s a path to him being the highest-scoring player on the slate.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Props
Harrison Butker over 1.5 field goals made (1.69x) – Sleeper
On paper, all of the Chiefs look good in the player props market. They are facing a truly bad defense. However, there’s a chance Kansas City gets out to a big lead and coasts the rest of the game. Rather than taking the skill position players, I like Kansas City’s kicker. The Chiefs will be able to move the ball with ease, and their defense might create some short fields for the offense. Butker has not missed a field goal all season and has made at least two field goals in four of the first five games.