The NFL Grind Down: Saturday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Dolphins
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Chiefs vs. Dolphins, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Saturday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chiefs vs. Dolphins
We are back for the playoffs! I will have these showdown breakdowns for all three of the night games this weekend (Chiefs-Dolphins, Lions-Rams, Buccaneers-Eagles). Halfway through the season, the Chiefs and Dolphins were both looking like Super Bowl contenders. However, both teams struggled down the stretch. The Dolphins ended up losing their division title to the Bills, and the Chiefs were lucky the rest of their division was so bad. The big story in this game is the weather. I always defer to Kevin Roth’s NFL weather forecast and here’s what he had to say about this game:
“Absolutely frigid. Actual temp should be around 0 degrees at kickoff, if not below 0 (and dropping well below 0 as the game goes on). A 10-15mph wind with gusts around 25mph will put feels-like temperature around 20 to 30 degrees below zero. Temperature generally isn’t a big concern to the game, but extreme cold is impactful, especially when adding in some wind to go along with it, and this is the definition of extreme cold.”
The betting market seems to be worried about the potential lack of scoring, as the total for the game has dipped to 44 points.
Key Injuries
Jerick McKinnon – Out
Kadarius Toney – Questionable [limited practice]
Justyn Ross – Questionable [limited practice]
Raheem Mostert – Questionable [limited practice]
Jaylen Waddle – Questionable [limited practice]
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
The Chiefs haven’t exactly been in the best of form recently, but they have a home playoff game and a fairly clear path to the AFC Championship. Would it really surprise anyone if Patrick Mahomes led this team to another Super Bowl? We’ve seen Mahomes shine in the playoffs throughout his career, so I’m not overly worried about the lack of upside that we saw during the regular season. He tends to scramble more in these big games, and the matchup is much better than it looks on paper. The Dolphins are without their 5 best linebackers and edge rushers. They have also ruled out one of the best cornerbacks in Xavien Howard. Mahomes has the highest floor of any player in this game and deserves consideration at both MVP and CPT.
After dealing with drop after drop after drop, Mahomes and the Chiefs finally decided to get Rashee Rice more involved. He saw at least 9 targets in 5 of his last 6 regular season games and scored 2 touchdowns during that stretch. He runs a lot of routes near the line of scrimmage, which is both good for his floor and good for a game with this type of weather. When it comes to the rest of Kansas City’s receivers, all I can say is good luck. We’ll have to wait and see if Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross can suit up, but even if they are out, it’s not like we can feel good about any of the other receivers. My favorite of the bunch is Mecole Hardman, who has caught his last 7 targets from Mahomes. It’s not much, but maybe that has earned him some more trust from his signal caller.
The question that we all have to ask ourselves is if Travis Kelce is completely washed or if he has one more postseason run in him. The incoming form is certainly nothing to write home about, as he’s been held under 10 fantasy points in each of his last 3 games. However, the Dolphins struggled to defend tight ends during the regular season and are now signing players off the street to come in and play linebacker. If there was ever a bounce-back spot, this has to be it. If you aren’t a believer in Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, the direct leverage is Noah Gray. He’s only $1,400 on DraftKings and has the same matchup as Kelce.
Isiah Pacheco has racked up at least 20 touches in 4 of his last 5 games, he scored 9 touchdowns in 14 games during the regular season, and he doesn’t have much competition for playing time. Jerick McKinnon is out, and the Chiefs don’t seem to have much faith in Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Dolphins were a middling run defense during the regular season, and again, they are missing all of their best linebackers. Add in the cold temperatures and the fact that the Chiefs are home favorites, and we have ourselves an excellent play in all formats.
The Chiefs defense is one of my favorite plays in this game. We haven’t seen much from Tua Tagovailoa in cold weather, three of Miami’s four best offensive players are nursing injuries, and Kansas City has always been a tough place to play. It’s not the best weather for a kicker, but Harrison Butker could easily end up with multiple field goals.
Miami Dolphins Preview
The Dolphins lost 5 of their last 6 regular season games last season and lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games this season. They can point to injuries more than anything else this time around, but it’s still not the form Dolphins fans want to see heading into the playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa had some big games earlier in the season but has been held under 20 fantasy points in each of his last 6 games. The frigid temperatures are far from ideal, and he draws a brutal matchup against the Chiefs, who are 5th in DVOA against the pass and 4th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Tua is still viable on this slate, but I prefer him as a FLEX play.
One of my big stands on the 2-game Saturday slate is fading Tyreek Hill. I know this is a revenge game, but the spot does not set up well for him. I worry about Tua’s ability to get him the ball, especially given the fact that the Chiefs have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. They have been very tough on WR1s and have only allowed two receivers to top 100 yards against them all season. I’ll likely have exposure to Hill on this showdown slate, but I will be underweight compared to the field.
Jaylen Waddle was able to practice on a limited basis and is tentatively expected to suit up for this game. He offers direct leverage off of Hill but draws the same difficult matchup. Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios round out the wide receiver room. I wish they were a tad cheaper, as they’ll need more than a couple of catches and some yards to find their way onto the optimal lineup. Durham Smythe has let us down several times this season but has scored at least 6 fantasy points in each of the last 4 games. I’ll take my chances with him over Wilson and Berrios.
Raheem Mostert has missed the last 2 games but is also expected to suit up for this game. He’s listed as questionable but was able to log limited practices throughout the week. If he ends up being out, De’Von Achane becomes my favorite play on the slate. He has averaged a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry this season and is explosive in both the running game and the passing game. Even if Mostert is active, I plan to have a lot of exposure to Achane. There’s also a path for both running backs to end up on the optimal lineup. The best way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground, as they are 27th in DVOA against the run and 28th in rush EPA.
Given the playoff experience of Andy Reid and Mahomes and the fact that the Dolphins are without 6 of their best defensive players, I’ll take my chances with a fade of their defense in DFS. Kicker Jason Sanders has had a solid season and is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a game that the Chiefs could run away with. They are more experienced in the playoffs, they are used to playing in cold weather, they are playing at home, and they are in much better health. Additionally, I expect them to have a very concentrated offense. We can expect most of their offensive production to come from Mahomes, Rice, Kelce, and Pacheco. On top of that, I like the spot for their defense. This is all lining up for Chiefs onslaught builds in DFS. My favorite bring-back on the Dolphins is Achane, but I’ll also have some Hill, Waddle, and Smythe.
Chiefs-Dolphins DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 19.47 | $12,800 | $19,200 | 1.52 | $16,500 | 1.18 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 19.31 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.64 | $15,000 | 1.29 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 17.04 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 2.13 | $12,000 | 1.42 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 15.84 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.55 | $10,500 | 1.51 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 15.26 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.36 | $13,500 | 1.13 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 14.54 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.73 | $11,000 | 1.32 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 12.69 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.71 | $10,000 | 1.27 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | RB | 12.47 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.36 | $11,500 | 1.08 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | RB | 10.68 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.24 | $12,500 | 0.85 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 8.04 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.49 | $8,500 | 0.95 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 6.69 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.59 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Jason Sanders | MIA | K | 6.23 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.20 | $8,500 | 0.73 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 6.19 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.63 | $9,000 | 0.69 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | 5.32 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.22 | $9,500 | 0.56 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 4.93 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.12 | $8,000 | 0.62 |
| Durham Smythe | MIA | TE | 4.68 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.46 | $6,500 | 0.72 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | 3.21 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.68 | $7,000 | 0.46 |
| Cedrick Wilson | MIA | WR | 3.14 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 0.65 | $8,000 | 0.39 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 2.95 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.64 | $6,000 | 0.49 |
| Braxton Berrios | MIA | WR | 2.88 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.96 | $7,000 | 0.41 |
| Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | 2.56 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 0.71 | $6,000 | 0.43 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | 2.37 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.91 | $7,500 | 0.32 |
| Richie James | KC | WR | 2.08 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 0.52 | $5,500 | 0.38 |
| Jeff Wilson | MIA | RB | 1.44 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.51 | $7,500 | 0.19 |
| Alec Ingold | MIA | RB | 1.31 | $200 | $300 | 6.55 | $5,000 | 0.26 |
| La’Mical Perine | KC | RB | 1.26 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 0.57 | $6,500 | 0.19 |
| Julian Hill | MIA | TE | 0.88 | $200 | $300 | 4.40 | $5,000 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Chiefs D/ST: $4,200 DK / $9,000 FD
The Chiefs are playing as home favorites and have an excellent pass defense. If they can build a lead early and force the Dolphins to air it out, they should be able to force Tua into some difficult throws and hopefully some turnovers. They aren’t projecting for as much ownership as I expected, making them a strong sleeper in this game.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Player Pick’em
Season record: 34-21
Isiah Pacheco more than 66.5 rushing yards (1.76x) – Sleeper
As noted in the breakdown, the Dolphins are extremely short-handed defensively. Pacheco has seen at least 15 rushing attempts in 5 of his last 6 games and has averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season. With McKinnon out, I expect Pacheco to dominate the touches in this backfield.
Image Credit: Getty Images