The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Eagles vs. Dolphins
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Eagles vs. Dolphins, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Eagles vs. Dolphins
As always, I hope Week 7 has treated you well thus far. If not, we can always turn our attention to the Sunday night and Monday night showdown slates. On paper, this is shaping up to be one of the best games of the season. The Bills are the only team that has been able to slow down the Dolphins, while the Eagles are looking to bounce back after a poor effort against the Jets. These are two teams with Super Bowl aspirations, so hopefully the game lives up to the hype.
The Eagles are listed as 3-point favorites, and we can expect plenty of points with a 51-point total.
Key Injuries
Devon Achane – Out
Quez Watkins – Out
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Jalen Hurts is basically a cheat code in DFS. He has topped 20 fantasy points in five straight games, which is a trend he’s been able to sustain his entire career. He has the ability to throw for 300+ yards, he has the ability to rush for 50+ yards, and the “tush push” remains undefeated (at least when the Eagles run it). There’s plenty of star power in this game, but Hurts deserves consideration at both MVP and Captain. The Dolphins don’t provide much resistance defensively, ranking 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
It’s been a strange season for DeVonta Smith. He hasn’t been the first read nearly as often as last season, and his target share is down to 20%. He still has a 31% air yards share but is coming off of a bad week where he had two critical drops against the Jets. I don’t mind playing the bounce-back narrative, especially since we’ve seen the Eagles force targets to A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert in order to get them going. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most receptions and the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Brown has some of the best usage that you will find at the wide receiver position. He currently boasts a 28% target share and a 48% air yards share in one of the best offenses in the NFL. He offers slate-breaking upside and deserves consideration at MVP and Captain. The Eagles will round out their receiving room with (checks notes) Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones. I doubt Jones gets much run in his first game with the team, but Zaccheaus could see a deep target or two down the field.
Dallas Goedert hasn’t been used down field as much this season, but he has run a route on 82% of dropbacks and has a respectable 17% target share. The Dolphins are bottom 12 in pass DVOA as a whole and in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. At his price point, he could get overlooked given the fact that there are so many star players to target in this game. For now, we can safely avoid Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra.
D’Andre Swift is one of my favorite tournament plays of the slate because the field is going to heavily target both passing games. You can certainly run on the Dolphins, as they are ranked 25th in both rush DVOA and rush EPA. Swift continues to hover around a 60% snap share while handling almost all of the early-down work for the Eagles. We should also love the fact that he has 18 receptions on 20 targets over the last three games. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott only mix in every now and then and have a very narrow path to the optimal lineup — they will need to score to get there.
The Eagles defense might give up a lot of points in this one, but that’s not what we should be concerned about when selecting a defense. All that matters is getting pressure on the opposing quarterback and the ability to generate turnovers. Philadelphia does have the seventh most sacks this season. I’m not forcing their defense into lineups, but they are viable in large-field tournaments. I’m generally a big fan of kickers in showdown and Jake Elliott has averaged an absurd 12.0 fantasy points per game this season.
Miami Dolphins Preview
The Dolphins have scored over 20 points in every game this season and have scored over 30 points four times. Tua Tagovailoa is the current odds-on favorite to win the MVP, and it’s hard to argue with the market. He leads the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and quarterback rating. The only way to slow this offense down is to get pressure on Tua and the Dolphins offensive line is top two in both pressure rate and sacks allowed per game. The only issue with Tua from a Captain and MVP standpoint is that he doesn’t offer rushing upside. If he throws for a ton of yards and touchdowns, one of his weapons will likely outscore him. For that reason, I prefer using him at utility/flex.
I would argue that Tyreek Hill has been just as valuable as Tua in terms of the MVP race, but that’s a debate for another day. What we do know is that Hill has a higher ceiling than any player on the slate. Before the season started, he said that he wanted to finish with 2,000 yards. He’s currently on pace to smash that goal. The Eagles have good cornerbacks, but none with the required speed to keep up with Hill. Jaylen Waddle isn’t having a bad season by any means, but he’s yet to have a big ceiling game. Even with two touchdowns in the last two games, he has yet to top 20 fantasy points on the season. The big game is coming, so don’t be afraid to use him in tournaments.
Braxton Berrios and Cedrick Wilson should see snaps here and there. Both are reasonable punts, but Wilson makes more sense given his $200 price point on DraftKings. One catch is all he needs to pay off his cheap salary. Rostering him also allows us to spend up on the stars in this game. Durham Smythe loves a good wind sprint. He has ran a route on 64% of dropbacks this season, yet he only has a target share of 8%. He’s only $1,600 on DraftKings, so I’m sure he’ll find his way onto some of my lineups. Julian Hill and Tanner Conner can safely be avoided, as they are unlikely to see any targets.
Jeff Wilson will make his season debut this week, and the big question is how much he’ll cut into the workload of Raheem Mostert. We know Wilson has plenty of ties to McDaniel, and he’s been very efficient with his touches over the years. I am expecting something in the range of a 70/30 split in terms of touches, but that’s honestly just a guess on my part. If Mostert does get the majority of the work again, there’s certainly a path for him to be on the optimal lineup. He has already topped 28 DK points three times this season. Wilson is the free square on DraftKings, as they forgot to bump up his salary ($200). I want to use him at Captain, but then you’ll have a nearly identical lineup as everyone else with that construction.
The Dolphins defense doesn’t seem like a good play, but they actually get quite a bit of pressure on the quarterback (eighth in pressure rate, fifth in sacks per game). They aren’t the craziest play in large-field tournaments. Again, I’m usually a fan of kickers for showdown, but this might be a game filled with touchdowns.
Thoughts on Lineup Construction
On DraftKings, the construction is pretty simple when it comes to cash games and single-entry tournaments. You are likely using Jeff Wilson at Captain or flex and then loading up on superstars. Again, I love the idea of taking the free square at Captain, but the problem is that everyone that does it will have a similar lineup. I have a hard time fading Wilson on DraftKings, even in large-field tournaments.
On FanDuel, the defenses and kickers are a tad more viable because the pricing floor is much higher than it is on DraftKings. I like the idea of using Jalen Hurts and MVP and then stacking the Dolphins for the rest of the lineup. If Hurts has a big game rushing and scores a touchdown or two on the ground, he might be the only Eagles’ player that you need.
Eagles-Dolphins DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 25.57 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 2.24 | $17,000 | 1.50 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 22.88 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.91 | $16,500 | 1.39 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 19.99 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.89 | $15,500 | 1.29 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 19.10 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.91 | $13,500 | 1.41 |
| D’Andre Swift | PHI | RB | 16.59 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 2.07 | $12,000 | 1.38 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 16.50 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.92 | $11,500 | 1.43 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 15.79 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 2.13 | $11,000 | 1.44 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | RB | 14.46 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.48 | $14,000 | 1.03 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 11.96 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.93 | $10,000 | 1.20 |
| Jeff Wilson | MIA | RB | 8.74 | $200 | $300 | 43.70 | $8,000 | 1.09 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.96 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.66 | $9,500 | 0.84 |
| Jason Sanders | MIA | K | 7.41 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.43 | $9,000 | 0.82 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | 5.98 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.57 | $7,500 | 0.80 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 5.70 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.78 | $8,500 | 0.67 |
| Braxton Berrios | MIA | WR | 5.69 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.37 | $8,000 | 0.71 |
| Durham Smythe | MIA | TE | 5.07 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 3.17 | $7,000 | 0.72 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 4.94 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.65 | $9,000 | 0.55 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | PHI | WR | 3.55 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.54 | $7,500 | 0.47 |
| Cedrick Wilson | MIA | WR | 3.53 | $200 | $300 | 17.65 | $6,500 | 0.54 |
| Boston Scott | PHI | RB | 1.61 | $600 | $900 | 2.68 | $6,500 | 0.25 |
| Salvon Ahmed | MIA | RB | 1.51 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 0.34 | $7,500 | 0.20 |
| Julian Hill | MIA | TE | 0.79 | $200 | $300 | 3.95 | $5,000 | 0.16 |
| Julio Jones | PHI | WR | 0.58 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.29 | $7,000 | 0.08 |
| Jack Stoll | PHI | TE | 0.50 | $200 | $300 | 2.50 | $5,500 | 0.09 |
Fantasy Sleepers
DeVonta Smith: $7,400 DK / $11,100 FD
Everyone wants to play Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill. And everyone on DraftKings is going to play the free square in Jeff Wilson. This naturally means the mid-to-upper range priced players will get overlooked in terms of ownership. Smith had two big drops last week against the Jets and has not had the best season, but the Eagles will want to get him going at some point.
Eagles vs. Dolphins Player Props
D’Andre Swift over 62.5 rushing yards (1.77x) – Sleeper
The props have been red-hot in these showdown articles, so let’s look to keep it going with D’Andre Swift. If you take out the Week 1 game against the Patriots, Swift has averaged 89.8 rushing yards per game. He doesn’t have a ton of competition for carries outside of Jalen Hurts, and this matchup sets up well for him. On the season, the Dolphins are ranked 25th in both rush DVOA and rush EPA.