The NFL Grind Down: Friday Night Football - Packers vs. Eagles
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Packers vs. Eagles, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Friday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Packers vs. Eagles
We have an extremely rare Friday night game on tap in Week 1. The timing is not the only abnormality with this game, as it will take place in Brazil. The Eagles are hoping to bounce back after an extremely disappointing second half of last season, while the Packers are looking to build on their surprise playoff birth and wild-card win over the Cowboys. Do you know what this game reminds me of? When you are doing the laundry and find a random $20 bill in one of your pockets. Bonus bucks and bonus football! This game features a spread of 2.5 points and a total of 49.5 points, so it could feature some fireworks.
Key Injuries
Romeo Doubs – Questionable
Tucker Kraft – Questionable
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
The Eagles started last season 10-1 and were the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. Whether it was locker room turmoil or something else, the team completely fell apart in the second half of the season. They lost 5 of their last 6 regular-season games and were then blown out by the Buccaneers at home in the playoffs. A bounce-back season appears to be in order. This team is still loaded with talent, and we could see an even more explosive offense under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
Jalen Hurts has been a fantasy football cheat code since becoming a starting quarterback in the NFL. He consistently tops 20 fantasy points, and he gets it done in multiple ways. He’s capable of throwing for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns. He’s also capable of rushing for 50+ yards and scoring multiple touchdowns (will the tush-push be the same without Jason Kelce?). The Packers have a talented front seven, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where Hurts isn’t on the optimal lineup in a game where the Eagles have a team total of 25.5 points. He deserves consideration at both MVP and CPT.
There are a lot of teams in the NFL where usage is tough to predict. That wasn’t the case in the wide receiver room for the Eagles in 2023. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for a 48% target share and a 75% air yards share. Brown had the more productive season of the two, but there are reasons to believe this could be a breakout year for Smith. We’ve seen Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb have breakout seasons under OC Moore and Smith should have a similar role in this offense. The Hurts double-stacks are firmly in play for this Showdown slate, but I give a slight lean to Smith over Brown if choosing one of the two.
The Eagles gave up a third-round pick and two seventh-round picks to acquire Jahan Dotson in the offseason. That’s a steep price to pay for a third receiver on an offense that already has two elite receivers and an elite tight end. This tells me they see something in Dotson and want to get him involved early this season. At $3,200 on DraftKings, he’s certainly worth a look in tournaments. The Packers made some big moves to bolster their secondary this offseason, which could funnel a couple of extra targets to Dallas Goedert over the middle of the field. The Packers were a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends in 2023, and Goedert is unlikely to become a chalky play at his price point.
The Eagles were top 5 in the NFL in offensive rush DVOA and rush EPA and now have Saquon Barkley as their top running back. D’Andre Swift was certainly great last season, but this has to be considered an upgrade at the position. There are pros and cons for Barkley — he’s playing on a better team with a better offensive line, and he’s going to be playing in a lot better game scripts, but he will naturally lose goal-line carries if the Eagles continue to run the tush-push. I’m willing to bet on Barkley early, especially since the Packers were 26th in DVOA against the run last season. Fourth-round draft pick Will Shipley ($2,000) has some appeal in large-field tournament sets.
The Eagles were bottom 10 against the run and the pass last season. They were also below league-average in pressure rate and sacks per game. They did bolster up a few key positions in the offseason, but they are unlikely to become a top-10 defense overnight. Fluke plays can always turn into a touchdown, but I would only look to the Eagles defense in large-field tournaments. Kicker Jake Elliott offers a high floor at his price point. I’m always interested in kickers for cash games, especially in games with high totals.
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Green Bay Packers Preview
My ex-wife (still good friends) loves the Packers and a few of my good friends are huge Cowboys fans. I’m not a fan of either team, so it was a lose-lose situation for me in the playoffs last year. Regardless of the outcome, I knew I would hear about it as my Jaguars were stuck at home after having a 99% chance to win their division after Week 12. Ah, the life of a Jaguars fan is not for the faint of heart. The Packers ended up blowing the Cowboys out in that game, and now expectations in Green Bay are extremely high.
Jordan Love topped 20 fantasy points (DK scoring) in 10 of 19 starts last year (including the playoffs). Despite having a consistent floor and a high ceiling, it took the DFS community a long time to believe in him. The crazy part is that he had such a great season despite playing without many of his wideouts. There were only a few games all year where he had all of his weapons at his disposal. He should have all of his wideouts available for the season opener against the Eagles. As you’ll hear time and time again in these primetime game breakdowns, quarterbacks are always viable in Showdown.
Christian Watson is a very talented wide receiver. He has struggled to stay healthy his entire career but hasn’t missed a single practice this offseason. By all accounts, this is the healthiest he has ever been entering a season. Now, he still has plenty of competition for targets — Jayden Reed is poised for a solid sophomore season, Romeo Doubs (questionable) has flashed upside and is expected to be the “X” receiver in the offense, and even Dontayvion Wicks will see a fair share of snaps in this offense. Reed could end up leading the team in target share, while Watson should lead the team in air yards share if he can stay healthy. Watson is my favorite of the bunch, but I will certainly get exposure to Reed and Doubs in this spot. We have to keep an eye on Tucker Kraft (questionable) leading up to lock. If he’s unable to suit up or expected to be limited, Luke Musgrave would become a strong option.
The Packers have a new-look backfield this season, as Aaron Jones is in Minnesota and AJ Dillon is out for the season. Green Bay brought in Josh Jacobs, who has been one of the more reliable running backs in the league over the last 5 years. He should have a huge workload right out of the gate, as his two backups (MarShawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson) are both dealing with injuries. Defenses change year over year, but it’s worth noting that the Eagles were 30th in EPA against the run last season. It’s a good debut spot for Jacobs, as he has a clear path to 20+ touches in a solid game environment.
The Packers defense should be better this season, especially on the back end. They were able to generate the 9th-best pressure rate in the NFL last season, but the Eagles allowed the 6th-lowest pressure rate, and Hurts hasn’t been a turnover-prone quarterback in his career. This doesn’t mean you can’t target the Packers defense, but there will be much better spots for defenses in Showdown games throughout the season. The Packers have played musical chairs at kicker this offseason. Brayden Narveson will draw the start in Week 1.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Most of the lineups that I build on this slate will feature Hurts or Love at MVP/CPT. While I don’t build 150 lineups for each Showdown slate, I expect to have Hurts and Love in every lineup I build. I like the idea of using Hurts at MVP/CPT in lineups that have Jacobs and Love at MVP/CPT in lineups that have Barkley. The one player position player that I want exposure to at MVP/CPT is Smith. I’m expecting big things from him this year under the new offensive coordinator. I don’t expect to have much exposure to the defenses, even in tournaments. I don’t expect to build many onslaught stacks (5-1), as I expect this to be a competitive game throughout.
Packers at Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 24.53 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 2.31 | $17,000 | 1.44 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 20.61 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 2.10 | $15,500 | 1.33 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 20.15 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.83 | $14,000 | 1.44 |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 15.83 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.93 | $12,500 | 1.27 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 15.63 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.66 | $13,500 | 1.16 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 14.64 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.63 | $12,000 | 1.22 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 12.11 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.89 | $10,000 | 1.21 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 11.07 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.91 | $9,500 | 1.17 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 10.84 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.94 | $11,000 | 0.99 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 10.17 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.50 | $9,000 | 1.13 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 8.49 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.57 | $6,500 | 1.31 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 7.90 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.72 | $9,000 | 0.88 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 5.67 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.03 | $6,000 | 0.95 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 5.23 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.31 | $8,500 | 0.62 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 5.18 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.16 | $7,500 | 0.69 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 4.98 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.38 | $8,500 | 0.59 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 4.20 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.31 | $7,500 | 0.56 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | 3.97 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.17 | $7,000 | 0.57 |
| Will Shipley | PHI | RB | 2.37 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.19 | $6,000 | 0.40 |
| Bo Melton | GB | WR | 1.33 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.11 | $6,000 | 0.22 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Romeo Doubs: $6,600 DK
On paper, I prefer Watson over Doubs. He’s cheaper, he projects better, and I can’t wait to see the type of season he can have when healthy. However, Doubs led the team in routes and targets last season and was Love’s go-to receiver in the playoffs. He’s expected to play the “X” role in this offense and should play in most 2-WR and 3-WR sets. If he’s going to garner half the ownership of Watson and Reed, he could be a real difference-maker in tournaments.
Eagles vs. Packers Player Pick
Season record: 1-0
- DeVonta Smith more than 4.5 receptions (1.52x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We’ve seen the way Moore uses slot receivers in the past. We can also expect this offense to play at a much faster pace. Both of these bode extremely well for Smith this year. I like the “more” on most of his pick’ems in Week 1, but I feel best about him getting more than 4.5 receptions.
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