The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Jets vs. Chiefs
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Jets vs. Chiefs, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Jets vs. Chiefs
There seems to be two camps in this Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift saga, those that love it and those that hate it. Believe it or not, I’m actually a fan of the added attention these two are getting. For the first time maybe ever, my sisters are texting me about football. Well, they are texting me about T-Swift dating a football player, but it still counts. If you are on the other side of this, you might want to avoid watching this game. She’s set to do the Sunday Night Football promo and be in attendance once again.
Haters gonna hate.
The Jets are hoping to show some semblance of an offense, as they host the visiting Chiefs. This game features an 8.5-point spread and a 41.5-point total. For reference, this game has the second largest spread and the fourth lowest total of the week, so this could be an ugly game to watch. Again, get ready for a lot of cuts to T-Swift in a suite.
Key Injuries
Richie James – Out
New York Jets Preview
If he doesn’t have a good game soon, Zach Wilson is going to be shown the door. Based on some rumors around the team, Robert Saleh could be on the hot seat as well. Apparently, quite a few players have approached him about benching Wilson, but he remains a Zach truther. It’s an odd stance to take, but here we are.
Through nearly three full games, Wilson has thrown for 467 yards and has twice as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (2). There’s nothing to suggest he’s made improvements over last season and draws a tough matchup against the Chiefs, who are ranked eighth in pass DVOA and fourth in pass EPA. He’s viable thanks to the fact that this is a showdown slate, but he’s far from a must play, and there’s a real chance he gets benched during this game if he struggles early on.
The wideouts on the Jets are handcuffed at the moment, as they arguably have the worst starting quarterback in the league throwing them the ball. In terms of target share, here are the leaders for New York this season: Garrett Wilson (24%), Allen Lazard (15%), Tyler Conklin (12%), and Randall Cobb (5%). Wilson has dominated the air yards share (38%) and is the only wideout on the team averaging more than 40 yards per game. The problem is that he’s not priced at a discount. Lazard, Cobb, and Conklin are cheap enough that they project as good point-per-dollar options on DraftKings.
The role for Breece Hall has grown each and every week, but he’s also been a victim of playing on a bad offense. He has only been able to muster up 36 yards from scrimmage in 17 touches the last two games. Dalvin Cook seems to be second in the pecking order at the moment, and unless anything happens to Hall, it’s hard to imagine that changing moving forward. The matchup sets up a little better for the running game, as Kansas City is in the bottom half of the league in rush DVOA and rush EPA. Given how close their salaries are, I prefer Hall over Cook in showdown contests.
The Jets will need a big performance from their defense in order to pull off the upset, and they are certainly a talented bunch, but they are facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have allowed the fewest sacks per game this season. It’s also hard to make a strong case for New York’s kicker, as the offense hasn’t been able to move the ball.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
The Chiefs started their season with a loss against the Lions, but have bounced back with wins over the Jaguars and Bears. It’s been a fairly easy schedule thus far, and that continues this week against the Jets. Well, at least from their chances of winning this game. The matchup is certainly a difficult one for fantasy production. New York is ranked in the top eight in most rushing metrics and have held opposing quarterbacks to the 12th fewest fantasy points. This isn’t a concern when it comes to Patrick Mahomes, as he easily offers the highest floor and ceiling of any player on the slate. He did hurt his ankle last week, but is not listed on the injury report.
When it comes to Kansas City’s wideouts, it’s Travis Kelce and then everyone else. Kelce has scored in both games that he has played this season and already has a 22% target share. The Jets have a good defense as a whole, but they have allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends this season. And we also have the added narrative of getting him a touchdown with his famous girlfriend in the crowd. To give an idea of how tough it is to predict these receivers, we have Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Rashee Rice all projected between 5.2 and 7.5 fantasy points. Justin Watson will also run routes and is $2,400 on DraftKings.
Much like the receiver room, Kansas City’s running back room is extremely crowded. Isiah Pacheco handles a good portion of the early-down work and Jerick McKinnon handles most of the third-down and two-minute drill work, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still in the mix. After seeing seven rushing attempts in the first two games, CEH had 15 carries last week against the Bears. While some of that is thanks to the blowout, he’s still going to be a thorn in our sides when it comes to DFS. The Jets have been very tough on the run, so I will focus my attention on Pacheco and McKinnon, who are more involved in the passing game.
Defenses have dominated the headlines in these primetime showdown slates, and we could easily see that happen again in this game. With Chris Jones back in the lineup the last two weeks, this has been a tough defense to move the ball against. Add in the fact that they are 8.5-point favorites and facing Zach Wilson, and the Chiefs D/ST stands out as a strong option for showdown. Kicker Harrison Butker is also on my radar.
Roster Construction Ideas
My favorite game script is a low-scoring and one-sided affair. I have no faith in the Jets offense as currently constructed and could see the Chiefs defense forcing turnovers and creating short fields. While I expect nice outings from Mahomes and Kelce, they could struggle to find the end zone against a very good Jets defense. This is where Butker comes into play. I like using the “Players Per Team” rule in LineupHQ and setting the Chiefs minimum to four on FanDuel and five on DraftKings.
Jets-Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 21.66 | $12,400 | $18,600 | 1.75 | $18,000 | 1.20 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 17.68 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.61 | $15,000 | 1.18 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 13.18 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.37 | $13,500 | 0.98 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 11.92 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.42 | $12,000 | 0.99 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | QB | 11.52 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.28 | $12,500 | 0.92 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 10.86 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.39 | $13,000 | 0.84 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 9.58 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.84 | $11,000 | 0.87 |
| Dalvin Cook | NYJ | RB | 8.57 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.38 | $10,500 | 0.82 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 8.01 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 2.00 | $7,500 | 1.07 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 7.51 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.63 | $9,000 | 0.83 |
| Skyy Moore | KC | WR | 7.50 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.17 | $9,500 | 0.79 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 7.40 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.54 | $7,500 | 0.99 |
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | RB | 7.33 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.08 | $10,000 | 0.73 |
| Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | K | 6.61 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.74 | $9,500 | 0.70 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | 6.50 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.20 | $8,000 | 0.81 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 6.33 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 3.96 | $7,000 | 0.90 |
| Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | 5.24 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 0.94 | $8,500 | 0.62 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | 4.70 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.57 | $8,500 | 0.55 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 4.44 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.23 | $9,000 | 0.49 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 3.77 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.57 | $8,000 | 0.47 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 3.65 | $600 | $900 | 6.08 | $6,000 | 0.61 |
| Randall Cobb | NYJ | WR | 3.02 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.02 | $7,000 | 0.43 |
| Michael Carter | NYJ | RB | 2.38 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.19 | $6,500 | 0.37 |
| C.J. Uzomah | NYJ | TE | 1.89 | $200 | $300 | 9.45 | $6,000 | 0.32 |
| Justyn Ross | KC | WR | 1.28 | $200 | $300 | 6.40 | $5,000 | 0.26 |
| Mecole Hardman | NYJ | WR | 1.15 | $200 | $300 | 5.75 | $6,500 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Breece Hall – $7,800 DK / $11,700 FD
Buyer be warned, the fantasy sleeper in this article has had a rough go in these primetime showdown slates. The latest victim was Luke Musgrave, who left Thursday’s game with a concussion. The hope is to right the ship with Breece Hall on Sunday night. Look, it doesn’t feel great spending a large chunk of your salary cap on anyone from the Jets. I am full fading Zach Wilson and think the best way they move the ball in this game is on the ground with Hall. His role has grown each and every week, and he should lead this backfield in touches. I still like the Kansas City onslaught, but Hall does work as the sole Jets player in those lineups.
Jets vs. Chiefs Player Props
Zach Wilson less than 192.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (1.77x) – Sleeper
If you couldn’t tell by the first 90% of this article, I’m not a fan of Zach Wilson in this spot (or as a quarterback in general). While he did have 36 rushing yards against the Cowboys in Week 2, he only has five rush attempts in the other two games combined. He has yet to throw for more than 170 yards this season, and he has a tough draw against a top-10 pass defense. On top of all that, he’s under a ton of pressure right now from teammates and the fans.