The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Lions vs. Raiders
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Lions vs. Raiders, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Lions vs. Raiders
I have a little extra pep in my step today, as I’m coming off of my best main slate of the season and also managed to have a good Showdown slate on Sunday night. A large part of the reason why we all love DFS is that we are competitive and that it feels good to win. I hope many of you were able to secure a profit on Sunday as well.
We now turn our attention to the Monday game between the Lions and Raiders. This game may feel lopsided given the records and form of these two teams, but the Raiders will have their quarterback back in the lineup for this one, and the spread has come down to 7.5 points. With the game being in Detroit, we can expect some points to be scored, and the market seems to agree, as the total is set at 46.5 points.
Key Injuries
David Montgomery – Out
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Questionable
Daniel Carlson – Questionable
Detroit Lions Preview
For the Lions players and coaching staff, the wait between Week 7 and Week 8 likely felt like a lifetime. After getting trounced by the Ravens, I’m sure they are itching to get back on the field and prove that they are a better football team than they showed last week. Jared Goff has historically played his best indoors and has averaged 24.5 fantasy points per game at home this season (compared to 15.6 per game on the road). He should find plenty of success against the Raiders, who are 21st in pressure rate and 26th in Dropback EPA this season. If Goff does have a big game, one of his receivers will likely out-pace him in terms of fantasy production, making him a better flex/utility play.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is very good at football. He has topped 100 yards and/or has scored a touchdown in all six of the games that he has played in this season. He’s dealing with an illness, but I am expecting him to suit up in this game. He sees a lot of targets and runs a nice mix of short and deep routes, which gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. The Raiders have somehow allowed the 8th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, but that’s likely due to a soft opening schedule.
Marvin Jones is no longer on the roster, which means Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and Jameson Williams are the only other viable receivers on the roster. We have all three projected between 4-7 fantasy points, but it’s important to note that these are mean projections. Reynolds and Williams have a much higher ceiling than Raymond given their respective route trees.
The Raiders have not been great against tight ends, and Sam Laporta has a 19% target share on the season. He’s the clear second option in the passing game behind ARSB aka ‘The Sun God.’
David Montgomery has been ruled out of this game, which means Jahmyr Gibbs will draw another start at running back. Before last week’s game, Head Coach Dan Campbell said that they had no choice but to use him a ton, and he ended up playing on 87% of the snaps. He turned 20 touches into 126 yards and a touchdown against a tough Ravens defense and now draws a home matchup against the Raiders. On the season, Las Vegas is bottom 5 in DVOA against the run, rush EPA, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Craig Reynolds will spell Gibbs here and there but will likely need a touchdown to find his way into the optimal lineup.
Let’s talk about the Lions defense. They are 9th in pressure rate this season and are playing as sizable home favorites. The Raiders have done a good job of pass blocking this season, but this is historically a good spot for the defense. Kicker Riley Patterson is viable as well (don’t roster Michael Badgley).
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
Before the season started, I bet the under on the Raiders win total. I was a little nervous after the first few weeks but feel a bit better after they were just blown out by the Bears. The good news for Raiders fans is that Jimmy Garoppolo is back in the lineup this week. He has dealt with a number of injuries this season and struggled with consistency. However, this is Showdown, and the raw fantasy production from quarterbacks means a lot on these slates. Jimmy G will square off against a Lions defense that has allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
If you thought we had a squeaky wheel narrative last week, it has only gotten squeakier with Davante Adams. He did see more targets last week but only finished with 7 catches and 57 receiving yards. Head Coach Josh McDaniels seems like a stubborn coach, but we have to believe they will appease their star receiver. The Lions have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and game script will likely be in his favor. He’s the one player on Las Vegas that I am considering for MVP and CPT.
Believe it or not, Jakobi Meyers isn’t far behind Adams in target share (26%) or air yards share (36%) this season. On a per-dollar basis, he has actually been a better DFS option. I am personally playing into the squeaky wheel narrative with Adams but can certainly understand those that want to prioritize Meyers over Adams. I suppose there’s a path for Tre Tucker or Hunter Renfrow on DraftKings, but they have not been involved in the offense. After being the chalk that busted in Week 7, Michael Mayer is a solid bounce-back candidate against a team that has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Josh Jacobs is a player that I have gotten wrong more often than right over the years. For whatever reason, he tends to struggle when I think he’s in a good spot and plays well when I think he’s in a bad spot. He has very little competition for touches, and this is Showdown, so I certainly wouldn’t look to fade him completely if building multiple lineups. With that said, the Lions have been very tough against the run, ranking 8th in DVOA, 10th in EPA, and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. If you are MME’ing, there’s a path for Zamir White or Ameer Abdullah to find the optimal lineup on DraftKings given their cheap price points.
I generally don’t like targeting defenses that are large underdogs, and this matchup doesn’t set up well from a pressure perspective. The Raiders are bottom 10 in pressure rate, while the Lions offensive line has allowed the 7th-fewest sacks per game this season. We rarely see injuries for kickers, but Daniel Carlson is currently listed as questionable. He’s a fade for me if active.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Unlike last night, I’m not sure I will be building full onslaughts with the favored team. The Raiders have a knack of showing up when you least expect it, and they have one of the most concentrated offenses in the NFL. For that reason, I’m looking for more balanced builds on this Showdown slate, at least in terms of the number of players from each team. I will be excluding the Raiders D/ST and their kicker but don’t mind sprinkling in those spots on the Lions. Additionally, I prefer both quarterbacks as flex/utility options rather than MVP and CPT options.
Lions-Raiders DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 20.75 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.85 | $15,500 | 1.34 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 20.03 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 2.33 | $12,000 | 1.67 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 19.54 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.88 | $15,000 | 1.30 |
| Davante Adams | LV | WR | 18.80 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.74 | $12,500 | 1.50 |
| Josh Jacobs | LV | RB | 17.10 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 2.04 | $14,500 | 1.18 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | QB | 15.94 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.70 | $11,500 | 1.39 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 15.05 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.84 | $10,500 | 1.43 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 12.75 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.72 | $10,000 | 1.28 |
| Riley Patterson | DET | K | 9.04 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.88 | $8,500 | 1.06 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 7.32 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.46 | $9,500 | 0.77 |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 6.99 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.84 | $7,500 | 0.93 |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | 6.98 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.13 | $9,000 | 0.78 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 6.86 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.32 | $8,000 | 0.86 |
| Daniel Carlson | LV | K | 6.46 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.54 | $9,000 | 0.72 |
| Raiders | LV | DST | 5.11 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.42 | $8,000 | 0.64 |
| Craig Reynolds | DET | RB | 4.77 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.49 | $8,500 | 0.56 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 4.40 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.57 | $7,500 | 0.59 |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 3.66 | $600 | $900 | 6.10 | $5,500 | 0.67 |
| Austin Hooper | LV | TE | 2.49 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.11 | $7,000 | 0.36 |
| Ameer Abdullah | LV | RB | 2.31 | $200 | $300 | 11.55 | $5,500 | 0.42 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 2.09 | $200 | $300 | 10.45 | $5,500 | 0.38 |
| Zamir White | LV | RB | 2.00 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.25 | $6,000 | 0.33 |
| Hunter Renfrow | LV | WR | 1.42 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.18 | $7,000 | 0.20 |
| Antoine Green | DET | WR | 0.70 | $200 | $300 | 3.50 | $5,500 | 0.13 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jameson Williams: $5,200 DK / $8,000 FD
Williams is the type of player that can make or break your lineups. He’s not going to see a lot of targets, but the ones that he does see will have the potential to turn into big plays. For example, let’s take a look at the last two weeks. Against the Buccaneers, he caught 2-of-3 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. Against the Ravens, he didn’t catch any of his 6 targets. If you roster Williams on this slate, know the risks beforehand.
Lions vs. Raiders Player Props
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (1.78x) – Sleeper
The props, the props, the props are on FIRE. Cameron Dicker covered his prop early on Sunday night, so I believe we have hit six of the last seven props for these Showdown articles. There’s no point in slowing down, so let’s keep it going with the over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ receiving prop. Coming into the season, his pass-catching skills were a point of emphasis. We didn’t see a lot of it the first few games, but he caught 9-of-10 targets for 58 yards last week against the Ravens. Game script obviously set up well for him in that one, but I also expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game moving forward.