The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Lions vs. Rams
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Lions vs. Rams, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Lions vs. Rams
The last time the Lions won a playoff game was in the 1991-92 season. They have a chance to end a 30+ year drought with a win against the Rams on Sunday night. However, Dan Campbell has made some questionable choices in the last couple of games. He went for the 2-point conversion after the Rams had a penalty on their first attempt against the Cowboys in Week 17. They didn’t succeed and ultimately lost the game. Then despite having something like a 4% chance to improve their seeding in Week 18, he decided to play all of his starters, and two of his key wideouts were injured in the game.
Barry Sanders was my favorite football player growing up, so I would be happy to see the Lions finally get another playoff win. However, the Rams are the most publicly-backed underdog this week and have even gotten a few of my shekels at +3 in the betting market. The total for the game is set at 51.5 points, which is the highest of the 6 games on the schedule this weekend. And thankfully, we don’t have to worry about the weather with this game being played in the dome in Detroit.
Key Injuries
Kalif Raymond – Out
James Mitchell – Out
Sam LaPorta – Questionable [full practice Friday]
Tyler Higbee – Questionable [limited practice]
Detroit Lions Preview
This is a double-revenge game, as both starting quarterbacks used to play for the opposing team. Jared Goff has always had much better splits indoors than outdoors and has averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game at home this season. A matchup against the Rams is better than most in the playoffs. Los Angeles is ranked 14th in pressure rate, 21st in DVOA against the pass, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. While I expect to have Goff in most of my showdown builds, I prefer using him as a FLEX rather than at MVP/CPT. If he has a big game through the air, one of his wideouts will likely outscore him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is on my short list of potential MVP/CPT targets for this slate. He has shown an incredible floor/ceiling combination throughout his career. He runs a lot of routes underneath and he has a big role in the red zone. He has topped 90 receiving yards and/or has scored a touchdown in every game but one this season. It’s certainly a nice matchup, as the Rams allowed the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers during the regular season.
With Kalif Raymond out, Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds will round at the wide receiver room. Williams really came on strong in the second half of the season but is expected to be the more popular target of the two. This is also a revenge game for Reynolds, and he’s been a big red zone threat for the Lions the last couple of years. After suffering what looked like a season-ending knee injury, it looks like Sam LaPorta is going to be active for this game. I’m worried about him being limited or used as a decoy, but we will get a nice ownership discount on this slate. With James Mitchell out, Brock Wright should get a lot of run in this game. He’s my favorite punt on DraftKings ($2,000).
The Lions love to run the football and honestly, why wouldn’t they? They have a good offensive line and two excellent running backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The problem that we always have is deciding which of the two to roster. I’ve seen some speculation that the Lions could lean more on Gibbs now that they are in the playoffs, but that doesn’t seem like a move Campbell would make. I expect the usual split between these two backs. Montgomery has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game but one this season, while Gibbs has topped 20 fantasy points six times already. Both are viable against the Rams, who are 20th in DVOA against the run.
The Rams have a very good offense, but we are expecting them to air it out a ton in this game. The more passing plays for the opponent, the more opportunities there are for sacks and turnovers. The Lions have the 7th best pressure rate in the NFL. Kicker Michael Badgley is viable, but this is only his 5th game of the season.
Los Angeles Rams Preview
Matthew Stafford would love nothing more than to come into his old stomping grounds and keep the Lions from ending their playoff drought. I wouldn’t exactly call this a revenge game because Stafford and Detroit seem to still love each other, but there’s still some added motivation there. More importantly, the Lions are one of the best pass-funnel matchups in the NFL. They are 1st in DVOA against the run while allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Much like Goff, Stafford doesn’t offer much in terms of rushing upside, so I prefer using him as a FLEX play. With that said, there’s a scenario where he throws for 300+ yards and multiple scores while spreading the ball around.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are one of the best one-two combos at receiver in the NFL. The passing offense is good enough to support both talented receivers, but we haven’t seen many games where they have crushed together. For that reason, I like the idea of building a rule to get at most one of these two in LineupHQ. I will note that the biggest weakness of the Lions’ defense is giving up big plays in the passing game. I see these two as very comparable plays, but Nacua will likely garner more ownership.
The Rams like to use a lot of 11 personnel, which leads to a lot of snaps and routes for DeMarcus Robinson. He’s catching touchdowns at an unsustainable rate (4 in his last 5 games) but that doesn’t mean regression has to hit immediately. He’s earned the trust of Stafford and will be lower-owned in showdown than he will be in the 3-game Sunday slate. Tyler Higbee has a nice matchup and gets a few targets each game. If one of those happens to come in the end zone, he could easily find his way onto the optimal lineup. Higbee is currently listed as questionable. If he ends up being out, Davis Allen would take over TE1 duties.
Unlike the Lions, we have a true feature back on the Rams. Kyren Williams has seen at least 20 rushing attempts in each of the last 5 games and has been a big part of the passing game all season. The matchup is one of the worst possible, but Williams has played well in difficult matchups against the Ravens, Browns, and Niners this season. I’m not going to overthink this one — he’s set for 20+ touches, involvement in the passing game, and all of the goal-line work in what should be a high-scoring game. He’s on my short list of potential MVP and CPT targets.
The Rams don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, while the Lions have one of the lowest sack rates in the NFL. Aaron Donald is always capable of creating havoc, but I’m not prioritizing the Rams’ defense. Kicker Brett Maher is having a great season and is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is not a showdown slate where I want to build onslaughts. I expect this to be a back-and-forth affair. I’m going to be overweight on Kyren Williams, I am going to separate Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in my builds, and I’ll look to limit exposure to the quarterbacks at MVP and CPT.
Lions-Rams DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 22.79 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.07 | $15,500 | 1.47 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 19.50 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.99 | $12,500 | 1.56 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 19.22 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.04 | $13,000 | 1.48 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 18.49 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.81 | $15,000 | 1.23 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 18.33 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.76 | $13,500 | 1.36 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | 18.23 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.90 | $11,000 | 1.66 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 15.55 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.77 | $10,500 | 1.48 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 12.02 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.77 | $11,500 | 1.05 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | WR | 9.99 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.85 | $9,500 | 1.05 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 9.13 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 2.17 | $7,500 | 1.22 |
| Michael Badgley | DET | K | 8.39 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.75 | $9,000 | 0.93 |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | 8.20 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.64 | $8,000 | 1.03 |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | 7.64 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.91 | $8,000 | 0.96 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 5.80 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.53 | $9,000 | 0.64 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 5.52 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.53 | $8,500 | 0.65 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 4.48 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.24 | $6,500 | 0.69 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET | WR | 3.45 | $800 | $1,200 | 4.31 | $6,500 | 0.53 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 2.92 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 0.38 | $10,000 | 0.29 |
| Ronnie Rivers | LAR | RB | 2.33 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.90 | $6,000 | 0.39 |
| Anthony Firkser | DET | TE | 1.23 | $200 | $300 | 6.15 | $5,000 | 0.25 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 1.12 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 0.25 | $7,000 | 0.16 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 0.92 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 0.27 | $7,500 | 0.12 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Demarcus Robinson: $5,400 DK / $9,500 FD
Perhaps I’m reading the situation wrong, but I expect most DFS players to get their exposure to Robinson on the 2-game slate. Over there, he’s the easiest value play to click on. For the showdown slate, he almost feels overpriced. If you are trying to get in the quarterbacks, the three superstar receivers, and the running backs, it’s really hard to make room for Robinson. I think he flies under the radar for showdown.
Lions vs. Rams Player Pick’em
Season record: 34-21
Jameson Williams more than 39.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper
As noted earlier, we’ve seen the role grow for Jameson Williams throughout the course of the season. With Kalif Raymond out and Sam LaPorta potentially limited, there could be some targets that open up in this passing game. He has topped 40 receiving yards in each of his last 3 games and has seen at least 1 rushing attempt in 3 of his last 5 games.
Image Credit: Getty Images